{"id":15205,"date":"2012-05-09T12:43:07","date_gmt":"2012-05-09T10:43:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=15205"},"modified":"2012-05-09T12:43:17","modified_gmt":"2012-05-09T10:43:17","slug":"bu-yil-icin-iyi-olan-nedir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/bu-yil-icin-iyi-olan-nedir\/","title":{"rendered":"Bu Y\u0131l \u0130\u00e7in \u0130yi Olan Nedir?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mart ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 2.4 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bununla birlikte y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 2.8 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu rakamlar bize baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli i\u015faretler veriyor.
\n\u25a0 Bir kere y\u00fczde 2.8 \u00e7\u0131kan rakam kriz sonras\u0131 yakalanan canlanma d\u00f6neminin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olarak dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011finde sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 14.4 d\u00fczeyinde artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00dcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7ok ciddi bir azalma s\u00f6z konusu. E\u011fer sanayi \u00fcretimi ekonomik canlanman\u0131n \u00e7ekirde\u011fiyse bu durum net bir so\u011fumaya i\u015faret ediyor.
\n\u25a0 2.8’lik sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de beraberinde getirebilir. Son y\u0131llarda b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 ile sanayi \u00fcretimi paralel seyrediyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011findeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 2.8 civar\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kma ihtimali y\u00fcksek.
\n\u25a0 Bu \u00e7eyrekteki rakam ayn\u0131 zamanda son y\u0131llar\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin geride b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. E\u011fer \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde \u00e7ok negatif geli\u015fmeler g\u00fcndeme gelmez ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi vurmazsa. Normalde b\u00f6yle bir beklenti de yok. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde hem yurti\u00e7i talepte canlanman\u0131n i\u015faretleri geliyor hem de b\u00fcy\u00fcmede baz etkisi zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekteki y\u00fczde 11.9’luk b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 9.1 ‘e inmi\u015fti.
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