{"id":15018,"date":"2012-05-06T12:25:58","date_gmt":"2012-05-06T10:25:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=15018"},"modified":"2012-05-06T12:26:24","modified_gmt":"2012-05-06T10:26:24","slug":"esenpigiller","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/esenpigiller\/","title":{"rendered":"Esenpigiller"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ta\u015f ya\u011fmuru aras\u0131nda iyimser olmak ne zor i\u015fmi\u015f\u2026<strong>\u00a0<\/strong>Benim bu f\u0131rt\u0131nada kendimi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m yamuk yumuk \u015femsiyemin bir taraf\u0131ndan Fed bir taraf\u0131ndan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 tutacak diye beklerken S&amp;P surat\u0131ma iki tokat(\u0130spanya-T\u00fcrkiye) \u00e7ak\u0131p \u015femsiyemi elimden ald\u0131\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4215961466\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>S&amp;P\u2019ye veryans\u0131n ederken bir tekmede Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131ndan yedim\u2026<br \/>\n\u00d6zetle iyimser olaca\u011f\u0131m diye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131m bu yolda 2 haftad\u0131r aral\u0131ks\u0131z farkl\u0131 kanallardan s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z dayak yiyen ben ve sevgili yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara tavsiyem s\u0131k\u0131 giyinin\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130\u015fin \u015fakas\u0131 bir yana\u2026<br \/>\n<\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>Veriler iyi iken Fed\u2019in parasal geni\u015fleme yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sat\u0131n alan zihniyet veriler k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ne yapar?<br \/>\n<\/strong><br \/>\nZaten benim iyimserli\u011fimin s\u0131rr\u0131 burada gizli..Ocak ay\u0131nda iyi verilerle bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa \u00e7ok ihtimal vermeyen ben bu hafta g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm resesyonu belgeleyen imalat verilerinden sonra \u201cbeyler(merkez bankalar\u0131) pamuk eller cebe\u201d demek istiyorum\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa taraf\u0131nda sadece parasal geni\u015fleme ile \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmlenemeyecek kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck bir sorun olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen a\u011fr\u0131 kesici niteli\u011findeki baz\u0131 enstrumanlar\u0131n(faiz indirimi,tahvil al\u0131m\u0131 vs) acilen devreye sokulmas\u0131 laz\u0131m\u2026<br \/>\nSonras\u0131nda bankalar\u0131n sermaye yeterlilik rasyolar\u0131nda istenen oran\u0131n(%5) gev\u015fetilmesi,m\u00fcmk\u00fcnse bankalara istikrar fonundan sermaye deste\u011fi,bu iki yolla kurtulamayanlar i\u00e7in TMSF benzeri bir kurum(batan \u00e7akt\u0131rmadan devletle\u015ftirilir),\u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplinini sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in ald\u0131klar\u0131 tedbirleri \u00f6teleme veya gev\u015fetme,vergi indirimleri ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi te\u015fvik edecek ad\u0131mlar\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Ooo \u00d6zavc\u0131 s\u00fctl\u00fc kahve\u2019de istermisin?<\/p>\n<p>Dedi\u011finizi duyar gibiyim\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Bayan Merkel bu plan\u0131m\u0131 duysa san\u0131r\u0131m g\u0131rtla\u011f\u0131ma yap\u0131\u015f\u0131p \u201csen beni bat\u0131racak m\u0131s\u0131n?\u201d derdi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Velhas\u0131l Avrupa bu dedi\u011fim rahatl\u0131kta olmasa da kurallar\u0131 gev\u015fetecek ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atmak zorunda kalacak.S\u0131karak ba\u015faram\u0131yorsan da\u011f\u0131n\u0131k b\u0131rak\u2026<br \/>\nPara piyasalar\u0131 bu yukar\u0131da (hafif abartarak) s\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131m form\u00fcllere Liderlerin ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131p yakla\u015fmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakacak.Yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda yukar\u0131,uzakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde hareketler g\u00f6rmemiz olas\u0131d\u0131r.<br \/>\nAlmanya 6600 deste\u011fi,\u0130spanya 6700 deste\u011fi,paritede 1,31-1,30 \u00f6nemli destekler\u2026<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1831562923\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>G\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcz bu destek seviyelerinin \u00fczerinde\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Abd\u2019yi bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi nedeniyle s\u00fcredir kendi haline b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k.Veriler(i\u015fsizlik,konut vs) k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmeye devam eder ve Fed\u2019in a\u011fz\u0131n\u0131 b\u0131\u00e7ak a\u00e7maz ise o zaman elimizde nur topu gibi d\u00fc\u015fen ABD endeksleri olabilir dikkat\u2026<br \/>\nS&amp;P 1370 \u00f6nemli destek\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Asya \u00fclkelerindeki hareketlenmelere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda parasal geni\u015fleme ad\u0131mlar\u0131,faiz indirimleri ,ortak i\u015fbirli\u011fi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve g\u00fcvenlik ad\u0131mlar\u0131(d\u00f6viz rezerv havuz b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc \u0131k\u0131ye katlay\u0131p 240 milyar dolara c\u0131karma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131lar) bu \u00fclkelerin Avrupa\u2019dan gelecek risklere kar\u015f\u0131 kendilerini koruma alt\u0131na almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<br \/>\nBu kaos ortam\u0131nda biz enflasyondur,imalat verisidir,s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131k m\u0131?gev\u015fedik mi? Gidiyoruz\u2026<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131saca ge\u00e7iyim efendim bu ay imalat verimiz t\u00fcm Avrupa\u2019ya ra\u011fmen 50 resesyon s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131 \u00fczerinde-olumlu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-791902441\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Enflasyon t\u00fcfe\u2019de zamlardan dolay\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama ile %11,14\u2019e ula\u015ft\u0131.May\u0131s ay\u0131 ve sonras\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f bekliyor.Benim ve bir \u00e7ok ekonomistin beklentisi de bu y\u00f6nde\u2026<\/p>\n<p>D\u0131\u015f ticaret olumsuz sinyaller vermeye ba\u015flad\u0131.Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ay ki veri sonras\u0131 bu ay gelen y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f ticaret(7,35 milyar.usd) rakam\u0131 ve i\u00e7eri\u011fine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda yava\u015flayan Avrupa ihracat\u0131 alarm veriyor.Her ne kadar \u00fclke \u00e7e\u015fitlenmesi ve ihracat\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f olsa da bu ayak takip edilmelidir.<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fin temelinde bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7irdi\u011fi keyifsiz bilan\u00e7o d\u00f6nemi ve devam\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz ortadan kalkmam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u0130MKB taraf\u0131n\u0131 geriyor\u2026<\/p>\n<p><strong>Olaya teknik a\u00e7\u0131dan bakarsak\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB:58,400-57,000(200 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama) destek 59,200-60,000-60,700 (50 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalama)-61,200 diren\u00e7\u2026<br \/>\nBug\u00fcn ABD tar\u0131md\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisini,haftaya Sal\u0131 i\u00e7eride ve Avrupa\u2019da\u00a0 Sanayi \u00fcretim rakam\u0131,Per\u015fembe \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz karar\u0131,Cuma Cari A\u00e7\u0131k\u00a0 verisi,ABD ve Avrupa\u2019da enflasyon verilerini takip edece\u011fiz.<br \/>\nDolar\u2019\u0131n 1,75-1,77 TL band\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.Bir s\u00fcre daha bu bantta hareket devam edebilir.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6sterge faizde bu hafta a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nde ya\u015fanan hareket \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta devam edebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Para giri\u015f ve \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 buradan da takip edebilirsiniz.<br \/>\nAlt\u0131n 1630-1650-1686 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda hareket bir s\u00fcre daha devam..<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa yukar\u0131da yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u201c\u00d6zavc\u0131 plan\u0131\u201d na yakla\u015f\u0131r ve i\u00e7eride bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc \u00fczerinden sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 kalkarsa o zaman \u0130MKB benim istedi\u011fim iyimser k\u0131vama gelebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Aksi durumda \u015femsiyeyi at\u0131n ve kendinize yumu\u015fak ini\u015f i\u00e7in bir para\u015f\u00fct ayarlay\u0131n\u2026<br \/>\nFigen \u00d6ZAVCI \/ Meksa Yat\u0131r\u0131m Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131<br \/>\ntwitter.com\/Figenozavci<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ta\u015f ya\u011fmuru aras\u0131nda iyimser olmak ne zor i\u015fmi\u015f\u2026\u00a0Benim bu f\u0131rt\u0131nada kendimi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 korumaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m yamuk yumuk \u015femsiyemin bir taraf\u0131ndan Fed bir taraf\u0131ndan Avrupa Merkez&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14450,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15018","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}