{"id":1491,"date":"2011-06-14T04:40:48","date_gmt":"2011-06-14T01:40:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1491"},"modified":"2011-06-14T04:40:59","modified_gmt":"2011-06-14T01:40:59","slug":"secim-sonuclarina-ilk-bakis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/secim-sonuclarina-ilk-bakis\/","title":{"rendered":"Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ilk bak\u0131\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Tarihi bir se\u00e7imi\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>daha<\/strong><\/span><\/a> geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 87\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi se\u00e7imin anlam\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bence \u00e7ok nettir. Laf\u0131 dola\u015ft\u0131rmadan kabul etmek gerekiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3106210279\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>genel<\/strong><\/span><\/a> se\u00e7iminin kesin (ve tek) galibi AKP\u2019dir. Ba\u015fbakan Erdo\u011fan tarihi bir zafer kazand\u0131. \u0130ktidara geldikten sonra girdi\u011fi iki se\u00e7imde de oyunu y\u00fckselterek y\u00fczde 50 kritik e\u015fi\u011fine ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015fka t\u00fcrl\u00fc tan\u0131mlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7imden nispi kazan\u00e7la \u00e7\u0131kan iki parti vard\u0131r: CHP\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>ve<\/strong><\/span><\/a> BDP. \u0130kisi de oy oran\u0131n\u0131 ve milletvekili say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131. CHP\u2019nin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131d\u0131r. Sadece muhalefet i\u00e7indeki yerini sa\u011flamla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. BDP ise K\u00fcrt oylar\u0131 \u00fczerinde h\u00e2kimiyetini kan\u0131tlad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7imin esas ma\u011fluplar\u0131 da bellidir. 2007\u2019de y\u00fczde 5,4 alan DP ve y\u00fczde 3 alan Gen\u00e7 Parti sand\u0131kta silindi. MHP ise se\u00e7imden zararl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan partidir. Oy oran\u0131 ve milletvekili say\u0131s\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Siyaset normalle\u015fiyor<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1960\u2019la ba\u015flayan askeri darbeler d\u00f6nemi\u00a0<a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u2019de siyasetin i\u00e7 dinamiklerine \u00e7ok hasar verdi. Toplumun kendi i\u00e7 evrimine yapay m\u00fcdahale aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 siyaseti ola\u011fan mecras\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Siyasi olgunlu\u011fa ve istikrara giden yolu uzatt\u0131. Toplumsal ve siyasi geli\u015fmeyi geciktirdi.<\/p>\n<p><a name=\"aspx1\" target=\"_blank\"><span><strong>21<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u2019inci y\u00fczy\u0131lda 27 May\u0131s darbesinin a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 vesayet\u00e7i parantezin nihayet kapanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sevinerek izliyoruz. Kolay oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek istemiyorum. Tersine, en az\u0131ndan benim neslimin zannetti\u011finden hem daha zor hem daha farkl\u0131 oldu. Ama oldu.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNormalle\u015fme\u201d s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc daha \u00f6nce iktisat politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in kulland\u0131k. Enflasyonun ve reel faizlerin makul d\u00fczeylere gerilemesine bu ad\u0131 verdik. Bilhassa y\u00fcksek reel faizin anormal bir durum oldu\u011funu vurguluyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3500933126\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Siyasette normalle\u015fme s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fc parti enflasyonunun sona ermesini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Siyasi konsolidasyon da diyebiliriz. Siyaset i\u00e7inden yapay b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015fl\u00fckleri temizliyor. Sosyolojik yap\u0131 ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fen bir siyasi yelpaze olu\u015fuyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131 mant\u0131\u011f\u0131 hipotezi \u00f6l\u00e7meyi gerektiriyor. \u0130ki kriter kullan\u0131yorum. Birinci partinin ve en y\u00fcksek oy alan d\u00f6rt partinin ald\u0131klar\u0131 oy oran\u0131na bak\u0131yorum. Oy oranlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi siyasi da\u011f\u0131n\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa, y\u00fckselmesi ile toparlanmaya i\u015faret eder.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Oy da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n seyri<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Son yirmi y\u0131lda yap\u0131lan alt\u0131 genel se\u00e7imin bu perspektiften sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablodad\u0131r. \u0130lk iki s\u0131rada se\u00e7imin birinci partisi ve ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 oy oran\u0131 var. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131ra ilk d\u00f6rt partiyi oy s\u0131ralamas\u0131na g\u00f6re veriyor. En altta d\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fcn toplam oy oran\u0131 yer al\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3907953869\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>1991\u2019de DYP y\u00fczde 27 ile birinci parti oldu\u011funda ilk d\u00f6rt partinin oy oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 89 olmu\u015ftu. 1995\u2019de birinci partinin oyu (RP) y\u00fczde 21.4\u2019e, d\u00f6rt partinin oyu y\u00fczde 75\u2019e geriledi. 1999\u2019da birinci parti (DSP) y\u00fczde 22.4 al\u0131rken d\u00f6rt partinin oyu y\u00fczde 69\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tarihi 2002\u2019dir: AKP y\u00fczde 34.3; d\u00f6rt parti y\u00fczde 72 al\u0131yor. 2007\u2019de AKP y\u00fczde 46.5\u2019e ve d\u00f6rt parti y\u00fczde 87\u2019ye t\u0131rman\u0131yor. 2011\u2019de ise, AKP y\u00fczde 49.9 ve d\u00f6rt parti y\u00fczde 95\u2019le zirveyi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ekonomik fakt\u00f6rlerin etkisine bir ba\u015fka yaz\u0131da bakaca\u011f\u0131m. \u0130ktisat politikas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karsamalar\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve program\u0131n\u0131 beklemekte yarar g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Asaf \u00a0Sava\u015f AKAT<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tarihi bir se\u00e7imi\u00a0daha geride b\u0131rakt\u0131k. Kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 87\u2019ye y\u00fckselmesi se\u00e7imin anlam\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bence \u00e7ok nettir. Laf\u0131 dola\u015ft\u0131rmadan kabul etmek gerekiyor. 2011\u00a0genel se\u00e7iminin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1491","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1491","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1491"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1491\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1491"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1491"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1491"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}