{"id":14866,"date":"2012-05-02T08:57:10","date_gmt":"2012-05-02T06:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=14866"},"modified":"2012-05-02T08:57:24","modified_gmt":"2012-05-02T06:57:24","slug":"onumuzdeki-donemde-para-politikasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/onumuzdeki-donemde-para-politikasi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki D\u00f6nemde Para Politikas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon raporunu bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu rapor ve raporun sunumu s\u0131ras\u0131nda Say\u0131n Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma sayesinde 2012&#8217;nin geriye kalan d\u00f6neminde para politikas\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l \u015fekillenebilece\u011fi daha bir belirginle\u015fti. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n bundan sonra alaca\u011f\u0131 bi\u00e7im iki geli\u015fme taraf\u0131ndan belirlenecek. \u0130lki yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ko\u015fullar. Bu ko\u015fullar hakk\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir belirsizlik var.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1508822779\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Birinci senaryo: 2012&#8217;nin ilk d\u00f6rt ay\u0131 2011&#8217;in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 ile k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha olumlu ge\u00e7ti. Bu ko\u015fullar s\u00fcrerse, para politikas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan g\u00f6rece rahat bir d\u00f6nem olacak. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz giri\u015flerinde bir sorun ya\u015fanmayacak ve d\u00f6viz kuruna a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru bask\u0131 gelebilecek. H\u0131z kesen b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile birlikte d\u00fc\u015fen ya da fazla artmayan d\u00f6viz kuru, y\u00fczde 6.5 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahmininin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesini kolayla\u015ft\u0131racak.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kinci senaryo: Avrupa&#8217;da olumsuz geli\u015fmelerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair sinyaller geliyor. \u0130spanya tekrar g\u00fcndemde, se\u00e7imlerle birlikte Fransa&#8217;da ve \u0130talya&#8217;da ilgin\u00e7 geli\u015fmeler olabilir. Bu durumda, risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilecek. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, d\u00f6viz kuruna yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru bask\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek. Bu olumsuzluklar ya\u015fan\u0131rsa, risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131ndaki azalmay\u0131 t\u00f6rp\u00fcleyecek hatta belki de tersine \u00e7evirebilecek tek geli\u015fme, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmesi olabilir.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi her iki senaryonun da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var. \u0130\u015fte bu belirsizlik nedeniyle TCMB esnek bir para politikas\u0131 uygulamak istiyor. Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l geli\u015fece\u011finin di\u011fer belirleyicisi ise do\u011frudan TCMB&#8217;nin \u00fc\u00e7 ara hedefinin izleyece\u011fi yol olacak. \u00dc\u00e7 ara hedef \u015funlar: Enflasyonun y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 6.5&#8217;e, 2013 ortalar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 5&#8217;e yakla\u015fmas\u0131, kredi art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n makul bir d\u00fczeyde kalmas\u0131 ve \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olarak da d\u00f6viz kurunun &#8216;normal&#8217; d\u00fczeyinden sapma miktar\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131. Bu sonuncusu bazen cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bazen de k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015flerini azaltmak bi\u00e7imine de b\u00fcr\u00fcnd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/onumuzdeki-donemde-para-politikasi-148214yy.htm\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta i\u00e7inde Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci enflasyon raporunu bir bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131 ile a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu rapor ve raporun sunumu s\u0131ras\u0131nda Say\u0131n Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14866","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14866","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14866"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14866\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14866"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14866"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14866"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}