{"id":14815,"date":"2012-04-30T13:24:35","date_gmt":"2012-04-30T11:24:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=14815"},"modified":"2012-04-30T13:24:48","modified_gmt":"2012-04-30T11:24:48","slug":"buyume-istihdam-ve-enflasyon-var-abdde-yeni-parasal-genisleme-yok","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyume-istihdam-ve-enflasyon-var-abdde-yeni-parasal-genisleme-yok\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme, istihdam ve enflasyon var ABD&#8217;de yeni parasal geni\u015fleme yok"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta k\u00fcresel piyasalar dikkatlerini sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n FED yapaca\u011f\u0131 faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evirdi. Faiz de\u011fi\u015fmedi, 2014 sonuna kadar da de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Bernanke &#8220;gerekmesi halinde daha fazla \u00f6nlem al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131&#8221; s\u00f6yledi. Bu s\u00f6zden piyasalar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal geni\u015flemeye kap\u0131n\u0131n kapanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131lar. Bu nedenle de, k\u00e2r realizasyonunun h\u00e2kim oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde nispeten iyi say\u0131lacak bir haftay\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131lar. Ama bu durum madalyonun sadece bir y\u00fcz\u00fc.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4072958120\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>EKONOM\u0130 \u0130Y\u0130:<\/strong>\u00a0Madalyonun di\u011fer y\u00fcz\u00fc ise bize tersini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. FED ayn\u0131 zamanda ekonomik tahminlerini revize etti.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in ABD b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini 0.2 puan art\u0131rd\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 2.4-2.9 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00fckseltti.<br \/>\n\u25a0 \u0130\u015fsizlikte yar\u0131m puan iyile\u015ftirme yapt\u0131 ve ocak ay\u0131ndaki 8.2-8.5 bant beklentisini 7.8-8.0 band\u0131na indirdi. En b\u00fcy\u00fck iyile\u015ftirmeyi de burada yapt\u0131 FED.<br \/>\n\u25a0 T\u00fcketici enflasyonunu ise y\u00fczde 1.4-1.8 band\u0131ndan y\u00fczde 1.9-2.0&#8217;ye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>FED BEKLEYECEK:<\/strong>\u00a0B\u00fcy\u00fcme artacak, i\u015fsizlik azalacak, ekonomi iyile\u015fecek. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda biraz enflasyon y\u00fckselecek. Ama uzun vadeli s\u0131n\u0131rlar i\u00e7inde kalaca\u011f\u0131ndan FED hemen bir \u015fey yapmayacak. Biraz enflasyona raz\u0131 olacak. Kendisinden \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal geni\u015flemeyi bekleyen piyasalar i\u00e7in yapabilece\u011fi bu. Ekonomik tablo yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye de\u011fil, olsa olsa s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya i\u015faret eden bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde. Ama FED bunu hemen yapmayacak hem ekonominin toparlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ve iyile\u015fmesinin kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesini hem de Amerikan ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerinin geride kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleyecek gibi.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>TAYLOR KURALI NE D\u0130YOR:\u00a0<\/strong>Bir de Taylor Rule (kural\u0131) var ki, o da \u015fu anki FED faizinin normal d\u00fczeyinde oldu\u011fa i\u015faret ediyor. FED faizinin yol g\u00f6stericisi durumundaki Taylor kural\u0131 d\u00fczeyi ile FED faizleri uzun s\u00fcre paralel gitmi\u015f. Ama k\u00fcresel kriz d\u00f6neminde bir ara eksi 4&#8217;e kadar gerileyen Taylor kural\u0131 d\u00fczeyine FED ayak uyduramam\u0131\u015f. FED faizleri eksiye getiremedi\u011fi i\u00e7in, y\u00fczde 0-0.25 d\u00fczeyinde b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f. Bu makas \u015fimdi kapand\u0131. Taylor kural\u0131na g\u00f6re, FED&#8217;in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6nemi bundan sonra ba\u015flayabilir. FED&#8217;in tahmin ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 bize, hemen Taylor kural\u0131n\u0131n pe\u015fine tak\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve politika faizini art\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. T\u0131pk\u0131 krizde eksiye d\u00fc\u015fmesinde oldu\u011fu gibi. Yani durum, piyasalar\u0131n umdu\u011funun tam tersini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor bize.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ht-yazarlar\/abdurrahman-yildirim\/1133024-buyume-istihdam-ve-enflasyon-var-abdde-yeni-parasal-genisleme-yok\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta k\u00fcresel piyasalar dikkatlerini sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n FED yapaca\u011f\u0131 faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7evirdi. Faiz de\u011fi\u015fmedi, 2014 sonuna kadar da de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Ba\u015fkan Bernanke&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":994,"featured_media":12631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/994"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14815"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14815\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}