{"id":14736,"date":"2012-04-27T15:12:10","date_gmt":"2012-04-27T13:12:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=14736"},"modified":"2012-04-27T15:12:20","modified_gmt":"2012-04-27T13:12:20","slug":"siki-para-politikasi-ve-belirsizlik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/siki-para-politikasi-ve-belirsizlik\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u0131k\u0131 Para Politikas\u0131 ve Belirsizlik"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 d\u00fcn enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<br \/>\nPiyasalar enflasyonun gelece\u011finden \u00e7ok, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n duru\u015funu merak ediyorlard\u0131. Ba\u015fkan da nas\u0131l bir politika uygulayacaklar\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini bir kez daha tekrarlad\u0131. S\u00fcrpriz \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131.<br \/>\nEnflasyonla ilgili bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yok. Merkez Bankas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde \u0131srarl\u0131. Nisanda art\u0131\u015f, may\u0131sta g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, daha sonra normalle\u015fme bekliyor. Y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 6.5 oran\u0131nda fiyat art\u0131\u015f tahmininin ge\u00e7erli oldu\u011fu tekrar vurgulan\u0131yor.<br \/>\nJokerler enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131.<br \/>\nPiyasalar\u0131n ve halk\u0131n bekleyi\u015flerinin bu oran\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu bir kez daha hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3906140760\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>NASIL B\u0130R SIKILIK?<\/strong><br \/>\nDikkatimi \u00e7eken Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n tan\u0131m\u0131ndaki incelikti.<br \/>\nBa\u015f\u00e7\u0131, &#8220;getiri e\u011frisi&#8221; diye adland\u0131r\u0131lan ve tahvil faizlerinin vadelerine g\u00f6re \u015fekillenen e\u011filimlerin durumuna g\u00f6re &#8220;s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k&#8221; ya da &#8220;gev\u015fekli\u011fi&#8221; tan\u0131mlad\u0131. E\u011filimin halen negatif oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<br \/>\nBu tan\u0131ma g\u00f6re Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde hakl\u0131. Ancak &#8220;s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n&#8221; tan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sadece getiri e\u011frisine ba\u011flamak kan\u0131mca do\u011fru de\u011fil. Esas tan\u0131mlama faizlerin reel anlamda negatif ya da pozitif olmas\u0131na g\u00f6re yap\u0131l\u0131r.<br \/>\nBizde Merkez Bankas\u0131 faizleri reel anlamda negatifli\u011fini uzun s\u00fcredir koruyor. D\u00fcn ortalama y\u00fczde 8.5 idi. Bu durumda s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131ndan bahsetmek olduk\u00e7a zor.<br \/>\nBunun nedeni ku\u015fkusuz Merkez Bankas\u0131 de\u011fil. Siyaset\u00e7i b\u00f6yle istiyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 tan\u0131mlar\u0131 geni\u015fletip, faiz koridorunu s\u0131k kullan\u0131p, de\u011fi\u015fik s\u00f6ylem ve hareketlerle durumu idare etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<br \/>\nBunun sonucunda da sistemde belirsizlik bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc azalm\u0131yor.<br \/>\nGetiri e\u011frisinin durumuna ba\u015fka bir a\u00e7\u0131dan bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda piyasan\u0131n bu belirsizli\u011fi oraya yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<br \/>\nAsl\u0131nda para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 s\u0131k yap\u0131lan hareketlerden daha \u00e7ok istikrarl\u0131 ve belirgin davran\u0131\u015flarda bulunabilirse piyasalar\u0131 rahatlat\u0131r. Potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7eker. Enflasyonist bekleyi\u015fleri daha iyi kontrol eder.<br \/>\nNe var ki piyasalar her sabah &#8220;Merkez Bankas\u0131 bug\u00fcn acaba ne yapacak&#8221; diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcp, tahminler yap\u0131p, pozisyon al\u0131yorlar. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 ertesi g\u00fcn tekrar ba\u015fl\u0131yor. \u00c7in i\u015fkencesi gibi. Bunun yarar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zemedim.<br \/>\nMerkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n elindeki ara\u00e7 say\u0131s\u0131 artt\u0131k\u00e7a, ama\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlendik\u00e7e ve bunlar\u0131 da s\u0131k\u00e7a de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyince belirsizlik azalmaz.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ht-yazarlar\/gazi-ercel\/1131782-siki-para-politikasi-ve-belirsizlik\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 d\u00fcn enflasyon raporunu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Piyasalar enflasyonun gelece\u011finden \u00e7ok, para politikas\u0131n\u0131n duru\u015funu merak ediyorlard\u0131. Ba\u015fkan da nas\u0131l bir politika uygulayacaklar\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14736"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14736\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}