{"id":14718,"date":"2012-04-27T08:24:58","date_gmt":"2012-04-27T06:24:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=14718"},"modified":"2012-04-27T08:25:16","modified_gmt":"2012-04-27T06:25:16","slug":"abyi-kaderine-terketmek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/abyi-kaderine-terketmek\/","title":{"rendered":"AB\u2019yi Kaderine Terketmek"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn ak\u015fam Bernanke\u2019yi seyrederken, bir yandan da AMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi\u2019nin ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 kafamdan ge\u00e7iriyorum. En son olarak d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n her iki a\u00e7\u0131klamaya verdi\u011fi tepkiyi. Draghi, AB\u2019yi kaderine terkediyor. Onu alk\u0131\u015flayan Euro\/dolar da Euro-b\u00f6lgesinin tabutuna son \u00e7ivileri \u00e7ak\u0131yor. Niye b\u00f6yle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fc anlamak i\u00e7in hikayeyi biraz ba\u015fa sarmak, ve IMF\u2019ni son World Economic Outlook Raporu\u2019nu \u00f6zetlemek gerek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1269811422\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>IMF\u2019nin 2012-2013 i\u00e7in temel senaryosu orta karar. Bu sene %3.5, gelecek sene ise %4.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Daha da \u00f6nemlisi finans literat\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn \u201cKara Ku\u011fu\u2019dan\u201d sonra en pop\u00fcler argo deyimi haline gelen \u201ckuyruk risklerinin\u201d (tail-risk) azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fcjdeliyor. IMF de benim gibi d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcnde ba\u015fl\u0131ca iki tehdit g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. AB krizinin yeniden hortlamas\u0131 ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda 30-40 dolarl\u0131k ani s\u0131\u00e7ramalar. Ama ge\u00e7en sene bunlar olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 hayli y\u00fcksek riskler olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor, IMF\u2019nin senaryo sim\u00fclasyonlar\u0131nda d\u00fcnyay\u0131 resesyonun e\u015fi\u011fine ta\u015f\u0131yordu. Bu sene ise tail-risk haline gelmi\u015fler, yani art\u0131k ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeleri olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n<p>Petrol konusunda IMF\u2019ye \u015fimdilik kat\u0131l\u0131yorum. \u0130ran-P5+1 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir alevlenme tail-tisk. Ama, AB krizinin hortlamas\u0131 art\u0131k bence tail risk de\u011fil. IMF ile aramdaki fark \u015fu: Merkel\u2019in zorla t\u00fcm Euro-b\u00f6lgesine kabul ettirdi\u011fi \u0130stikrar Pakt\u0131\u2019n\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa bir resesyon de\u011fil, B\u00fcy\u00fck Depresyon olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Her a\u00e7\u0131klanan veride bu k\u00f6t\u00fcye gidi\u015f biraz daha berrak olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131ca, AB krizi siyasal bir boyut da geli\u015ftirdi. Merkel\u2019in istediklerini uygulayan liderlerin siyasi kariyeri sona eriyor. \u0130spanyol Rajoy ve Yunanistan\u2019da 6 May\u0131s se\u00e7imlerinden sonra iktidara hangi bedbaht ge\u00e7ecekse, Almanya\u2019ya eli mahkum, o y\u00fczden her t\u00fcrl\u00fc riski alarak bu kamikazi program\u0131 uygulamaya devam edecek. Ama, Fransa o kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc durumda de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer Hollande se\u00e7ilirse, \u0130stikrar Pakt\u0131\u2019n\u0131 y\u0131rt\u0131p ataca\u011f\u0131 gibi, arkas\u0131na art\u0131k Merkel\u2019den ve kemer s\u0131kmaktan g\u0131na getiren bir ka\u00e7 \u00fclkeyi daha katacak. \u0130syan bayraklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lacak. O zaman da PIIGS krizinde ne ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 belli de\u011fil. Merkel\u2019in sonsuz kemer s\u0131kma programlar\u0131n\u0131n kamu borcunu azaltmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na ikna olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar isyan\u0131 alk\u0131\u015flay\u0131p bu kez de devletler \u00fcst\u00fcnde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi g\u00fc\u00e7lendirici politikalar uygulamalar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde mi bask\u0131 kurarlar? Yani art\u0131k daha fazla kemer s\u0131kan de\u011fil, di\u011ferlerine g\u00f6rece en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen \u00fclkelerin tahvilleri mi prim yapar? Yoksa yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u201cTanr\u0131 hepsinin cezas\u0131n\u0131 versin\u201d deyip, t\u00fcm Euro cinsinden varl\u0131klar\u0131 satar da ka\u00e7ar m\u0131, bilinmez.<\/p>\n<p>Bu y\u00fczden Merkel de art\u0131k kemer s\u0131kma kadar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de dillendirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ama, nas\u0131l olacak bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme? K\u0131sa vadede b\u00fct\u00e7e harcamalar\u0131 ya da vergi indirimleri kullanmadan b\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flayan modern ekonomi yok. Merkel\u2019in \u00f6nerdi\u011fi yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n Almanya\u2019da sonu\u00e7 \u00fcretmesi en az 3 y\u0131l s\u00fcrd\u00fc. PIIGS\u2019in ise 3 y\u0131l\u0131 yok. Asl\u0131nda, AB i\u00e7in art\u0131k 2 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm kald\u0131: Liderlerin ceplerinden bir 250 milyar daha \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131p, IMF ve G-20\u2019den 1 trilyon dolar\u0131 da alarak PIIGS ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizine kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcksek yang\u0131n duvalar\u0131 \u00f6rmeleri. Merkel i\u015fe yaramaz diyor, bal gibi de yarar. \u0130kincisi ise AMB\u2019n\u0131n Fed gibi faizleri s\u0131f\u0131ra indirip LTRO de\u011fil, sonsuz para basmaya ge\u00e7mesi.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/ekonomihaberyorum.haberdesin.com\/abyi-kaderine-terketmek\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn ak\u015fam Bernanke\u2019yi seyrederken, bir yandan da AMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Draghi\u2019nin ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 kafamdan ge\u00e7iriyorum. En son olarak d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n her iki a\u00e7\u0131klamaya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14718"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14718\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}