{"id":14568,"date":"2012-04-25T15:45:07","date_gmt":"2012-04-25T13:45:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=14568"},"modified":"2012-04-25T15:55:49","modified_gmt":"2012-04-25T13:55:49","slug":"seans-oncesi-25-nisan-2012-0820","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/seans-oncesi-25-nisan-2012-0820\/","title":{"rendered":"Seans \u0130\u00e7inden &#8211; 25 Nisan 2012 &#8211; 16:55"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>16:55<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1940916968\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu sabahki yorumumda endeksin 60.000 ile 60.750 aras\u0131nda hareket etmesini bekledi\u011fimi yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m ama endeks 60 binin \u00fczerinde sadece ilk seansta tutunurken, ikinci seansta endeks 59.250 seviyesine kadar geriledi. Bu arada d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda bizimki kadar sert bir geri \u00e7ekilme yoktu. Olumsuz verilerin gelmesi do\u011fal stres yaratt\u0131.\u00a0ABD&#8217;de dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 sipari\u015fleri Mart ay\u0131nda son \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterdi. Bu durum, imalat sanayinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye bu y\u0131l daha az katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Bu veri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Avrupa&#8217;dan ziyade ABD future&#8217;lar\u0131nda geri \u00e7ekilmeler sert oldu ve biz de buna uyduk. \u015eimdi ise, New York borsas\u0131nda i\u015flemler ba\u015flad\u0131 ve dow endeksi y\u00fczde 0.72 yukar\u0131da bulunuyor. Dax ise \u015fu an y\u00fczde 1.94 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckselmi\u015f durumda. Draghi&#8217;nin enflasyon s\u00f6ylemini yumu\u015fatm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 Avrupa&#8217;ya moral vermi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. \u015eu an d\u0131\u015f piyasalarda olu\u015fan genel olumlu hava bize de yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda ve \u0130MKB100 endeks en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck 59.250 seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fckten sonra \u015fimdi yeniden 60 binin \u00fczerine geldi. Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere bug\u00fcn FED karar\u0131 ve Bernanke&#8217;nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 var. Piyasalar adeta bu cepheden, piyasalar\u0131n istedi\u011fi y\u00f6nde bir a\u00e7\u0131klama gelece\u011fini duymu\u015flar gibi bir hali var. \u00a0D\u00fcn ve bu sabah yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m yorumlarda gene olarak ka\u011f\u0131t baz\u0131nda \u00e7ok se\u00e7ici olmad\u0131k\u00e7a borsada yeni risk al\u0131nmamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6neriyordum. Bu \u00f6nerim devam ediyor. Piyasalar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 dalgal\u0131 durumda ve g\u00fcnl\u00fck grafiklerde dow endeksinde 13.100 \u00a0\u00fczerinde bir kapan\u0131\u015f olursa bizde de 60.750 civar\u0131ndaki diren\u00e7 yukar\u0131 ge\u00e7ilebilir. Bunu izlemek gerekir. Bizim endeks i\u00e7in 61.250 seviyesi de kritik oldu\u011fundan bu seviyelerin \u00fczerinde kapan\u0131\u015f g\u00f6rmeden al\u0131m yap\u0131lsa bile k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir kar olu\u015fmas\u0131 durumunda sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131labilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla genelde nakit kal\u0131p Bernanke&#8217;nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 beklemekte fayda oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Yar\u0131n sabah piyasalar farkl\u0131 uyanacakt\u0131r. Bu ak\u015fam yap\u0131lacak a\u00e7\u0131klamalara ili\u015fkin olarak piyasa Qe3 beklemedi\u011fi i\u00e7in, bu y\u00f6nde \u00e7ok ufak da olsa bir umut do\u011farsa piyasalardaki co\u015fku artar ve \u0130MKB endeksi de 61.250 direncini a\u015fabilir. Ama eski a\u00e7\u0131klamalara benzer a\u00e7\u0131klamalar gelece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. P\u0130yasalar bu a\u015famadan sonra hangi y\u00f6nde devam etmek istedi\u011finin sinyalini verecektir. Sa\u011fl\u0131cakla kal\u0131n\u0131z..<\/p>\n<p><strong>08:20<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn piyasalar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir toparlanma g\u00fcn\u00fcyd\u00fc. Bu toparlanmada ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken unsur ise ABD&#8217;den gelen verilerin en az\u0131ndan beklentilerden k\u00f6t\u00fc olmamas\u0131yd\u0131. D\u00fcn \u0130spanya ve \u0130talyan bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131 da yap\u0131ld\u0131. Daha \u00f6nceki ihaleleere g\u00f6re \u0130spanya&#8217;N\u0131n bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131ndaki faizler neredeyse iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Talep y\u00fcksekti ama faizler de y\u00fcksekti. D\u00fcn gece Apple&#8217;\u0131n k\u00e2rlar\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 90&#8217;a varan art\u0131\u015f sayesinde ABD borsalar\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131da kapatt\u0131lar ve bu sabah itibariyle Asya borsalar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f var. \u00c7in y\u00fczde 0.33, Nikkei y\u00fczde 1.03 yukar\u0131da bulunurken, Dow ve S&amp;P future&#8217;lar\u0131 da y\u00fczde 0.25-0.30 aras\u0131nda yukar\u0131da bulunuyorlar. \u00a0D\u00fcn bizim borsa g\u00fcn\u00fc y\u00fczde 0.69 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da kapatt\u0131. \u00a0Bu sabah itibariyle moraller d\u00fczelmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ama Avrupa&#8217;daki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fczerini \u00a0ABD&#8217;deki geli\u015fmeler \u00f6rtt\u00fc. \u00a0Bug\u00fcn FED&#8217;in \u00a0toplant\u0131s\u0131 var. Faizler de\u011fi\u015fmeyecek ama FED&#8217;in b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca ak\u015fam 21:15 s\u0131ralar\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak k\u0131sa notun ard\u0131ndan Bernanke&#8217;nin yapaca\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fma \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r. Bu konu\u015fmada Bernanke ekonomideki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa vurgu yapabilir. Ama parasal geni\u015flemeye ili\u015fkin bir sinyal beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u00e7eriye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda yar\u0131n TCMB&#8217;nin enflasyon raporu a\u00e7\u0131klanacak. Burada b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon hedefinin de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fini Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131 zaten a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu a\u015famadan sonra ufukta s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu nedenle d\u00fcn dolar 1.79 seviyesini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 k\u0131rarak 1.78&#8217;e kadar geriledi ve borsan\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli nedeni de TCMB&#8217;nin \u015fahince bir tutum tak\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n piyasa taraf\u0131ndan alg\u0131lanmas\u0131yd\u0131. Bug\u00fcn piyasam\u0131z g\u00fcne olumlu ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r. Fakat az \u00f6nce de s\u00f6yledi\u011fim \u00fczere Avrupa bor\u00e7 krizi \u00fclkelerinin genel durumunda net bir d\u00fczelme yok. Bu y\u00fczden piyasalar \u00fczerinde stres olu\u015fturmaya devam edebilir. D\u00fcn endeks 59.706 seviyesinden kapand\u0131. Bug\u00fcn endeksin 60 bin \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum ama 60.500 \u00fczerinde bir kapan\u0131\u015f olduk\u00e7a zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Fakat bu arada bedelsiz potansiyeli olan hisselerde de hareketlilik devam edecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yeni TCK bedelsiz sermaye art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik ve ediyor ve hatta biraz da zorunlu k\u0131l\u0131yor diyebiliriz. \u00a0Uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r sermaye art\u0131rmam\u0131\u015f \u015firketlerde bedelsiz b\u00f6l\u00fcnmeler artabilir. Fakat bu hemen olacak bir\u015fey de\u011fil. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da defter de\u011feri \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olan ve bedelsiz potansiyeli y\u00fcksek olan \u015firketleri verdim. Burada defter de\u011feri \u00f6nemlidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc sermayeye eklenebilecek fonlar \u00d6zsermaye kalemi alt\u0131nda bulunur. \u00d6zsermayeyi Sermayeye b\u00f6ld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fczde y\u00fcksek bir de\u011fer \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yorsa, sermayeye eklenebilecek fon miktar\u0131 fazla demektir. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131da bunu g\u00f6steren bir liste verdim. Fakat \u015funu da vurgulayay\u0131m ki, bedelsiz verecek diye hissenin fiyat\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 teorik olarak \u00e7ok da anlaml\u0131 de\u011fildir. Ama T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar &#8220;nas\u0131l olsa b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fckten sonra tekrar eski fiyat\u0131na gelir&#8221; mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla ciddi talepte bulunuyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>Borsa bug\u00fcn olumlu a\u00e7\u0131lsa da ka\u011f\u0131t baz\u0131nda \u00e7ok se\u00e7ici olmak gerekiyor. Endeksin bug\u00fcn 60.000 ile 60.750 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bu\u0131g\u00fcn derslerim olmas\u0131 nedeniyle bir sonraki yorumumu saat 16:45-17:00 civar\u0131nda ge\u00e7ece\u011fim. Herekse bol kazan\u00e7l\u0131 bir g\u00fcn olmas\u0131n\u0131 diliyorum.<\/p>\n<table width=\"128\" border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<colgroup>\n<col span=\"2\" width=\"64\" \/> <\/colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"64\" height=\"20\">SEMBOL<\/td>\n<td width=\"64\">DEFDEG<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">KONYA<\/td>\n<td>79,57<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">BAGFS<\/td>\n<td>79,09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">KARTN<\/td>\n<td>71,67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">BRISA<\/td>\n<td>63,39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">NETAS<\/td>\n<td>55,11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">EGGUB<\/td>\n<td>50,15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">GOLTS<\/td>\n<td>35,54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">GOODY<\/td>\n<td>27,88<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">BSHEV<\/td>\n<td>24,62<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ALCAR<\/td>\n<td>24,43<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">BRSAN<\/td>\n<td>23,17<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">PKENT<\/td>\n<td>22,91<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ISBTR<\/td>\n<td>22,80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ALGYO<\/td>\n<td>21,40<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">EGEEN<\/td>\n<td>21,03<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">CMBTN<\/td>\n<td>20,55<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">TUPRS<\/td>\n<td>17,45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ERBOS<\/td>\n<td>16,80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">DOCO<\/td>\n<td>16,74<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">AFYON<\/td>\n<td>15,76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ECZYT<\/td>\n<td>15,09<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">YAZIC<\/td>\n<td>12,45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ADESE<\/td>\n<td>12,45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">BRYAT<\/td>\n<td>12,29<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ITTFH<\/td>\n<td>12,21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ADEL<\/td>\n<td>11,62<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">KENT<\/td>\n<td>11,58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">MRSHL<\/td>\n<td>11,43<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">TRGYO<\/td>\n<td>11,31<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">TTRAK<\/td>\n<td>11,16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">PNSUT<\/td>\n<td>9,77<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">OTKAR<\/td>\n<td>8,89<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">MAALT<\/td>\n<td>8,63<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">CARFA<\/td>\n<td>8,52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">CARFB<\/td>\n<td>8,52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">CMENT<\/td>\n<td>8,50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">GUBRF<\/td>\n<td>7,95<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ALTIN<\/td>\n<td>7,68<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ATEKS<\/td>\n<td>7,60<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">AYGAZ<\/td>\n<td>7,18<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">PETUN<\/td>\n<td>7,16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">AEFES<\/td>\n<td>6,99<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">HALKB<\/td>\n<td>6,91<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ASUZU<\/td>\n<td>6,89<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">SAHOL<\/td>\n<td>6,81<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">MGROS<\/td>\n<td>6,71<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">CCOLA<\/td>\n<td>6,49<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">CIMSA<\/td>\n<td>6,34<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">IZOCM<\/td>\n<td>6,29<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">OLMKS<\/td>\n<td>6,21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ALKIM<\/td>\n<td>6,14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">SARKY<\/td>\n<td>5,80<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">HATEK<\/td>\n<td>5,76<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">KCHOL<\/td>\n<td>5,75<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">PINSU<\/td>\n<td>5,74<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">BTCIM<\/td>\n<td>5,58<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">NUHCM<\/td>\n<td>5,57<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">KAPLM<\/td>\n<td>5,54<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">DENIZ<\/td>\n<td>5,52<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">MUTLU<\/td>\n<td>5,50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">AYCES<\/td>\n<td>5,47<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">KIPA<\/td>\n<td>5,44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">FROTO<\/td>\n<td>5,41<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">SKTAS<\/td>\n<td>5,30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">ARCLK<\/td>\n<td>5,25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">AKFEN<\/td>\n<td>5,22<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td height=\"20\">TKFEN<\/td>\n<td>5,02<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>16:55 Bu sabahki yorumumda endeksin 60.000 ile 60.750 aras\u0131nda hareket etmesini bekledi\u011fimi yazm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m ama endeks 60 binin \u00fczerinde sadece ilk seansta tutunurken, ikinci seansta endeks&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":102,"featured_media":9297,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14568","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/102"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14568\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9297"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}