{"id":14354,"date":"2012-04-19T08:48:35","date_gmt":"2012-04-19T06:48:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=14354"},"modified":"2012-04-19T08:48:52","modified_gmt":"2012-04-19T06:48:52","slug":"imf-nin-son-tahminleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/imf-nin-son-tahminleri\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF\u2019 nin Son Tahminleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn kapitalizm sohbetine ara veriyorum. Ama laf\u0131m bitmedi. Okuyucu deste\u011fi de ald\u0131m. \u0130zleyici istekleri bile geliyor. Yani devam edece\u011fim. Arada \u00e7ok haber birikti. Baz\u0131lar\u0131na g\u00f6z atal\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-490083320\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Mali piyasalarda y\u00fcksek oynakl\u0131k s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Tipik \u201cmanik-depresif\u201d vakas\u0131d\u0131r. Bir olumsuz rivayet, piyasalar \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fcyor. Ger\u00e7ek \u00e7\u0131kmay\u0131nca ertesi g\u00fcn z\u0131pl\u0131yor. Neyse ki Merkez Bankas\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurunda oynakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 engelledi. D\u00fcn sepet 2.07 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi.<\/p>\n<p>Ocak istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. Aral\u0131k-\u015fubat d\u00f6nemini kaps\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re istihdam 1 milyon artarken i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 400 bin azald\u0131. Takvim ve mevsim etkisi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 8,9\u2019la yeni bir rekor k\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>H\u00fck\u00fcmet bireysel emeklilik sistemine b\u00fct\u00e7eden destek ba\u015flatt\u0131. \u0130lk kez anlaml\u0131 bir te\u015fvik g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Hanehalk\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na mutlaka ciddi katk\u0131 yapar. \u00c7ok olumlu bir geli\u015fmedir. Destekliyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fct\u00e7e sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 denge 11 milyar TL fazla, b\u00fct\u00e7e 6 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Gelir ve faiz-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 harcama art\u0131\u015f\u0131 birbirine \u00e7ok yak\u0131n; yani b\u00fct\u00e7e disiplini gev\u015femiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n vergi \u00f6ncesi k\u00e2r\u0131 2011\u2019de tarihi rekor k\u0131rd\u0131: 10 milyar TL. \u00c7o\u011fu vergi ve temett\u00fc olarak Hazine\u2019ye gidiyor. Nisan b\u00fct\u00e7esine yans\u0131r. D\u00fcn toplanan Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi. Makul duruyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IMF daha az karamsar<\/strong><br \/>\n2012\u2019nin ilk D\u00fcnya Ekonomisine Bak\u0131\u015f raporu IMF taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fcme, enflasyon vs. temel makro tahminleri kaps\u0131yor. Kriz alt\u0131 ay\u0131 uzun d\u00f6neme \u00e7evirdi. Arada bir tahmin seti daha yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. Ocak 2012\u2019yi de\u011ferlendirmi\u015ftim.<\/p>\n<p>250 sayfal\u0131k raporun t\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc hen\u00fcz okuyamad\u0131m. \u0130\u00e7inde ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 analizler yer al\u0131yor. Bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019yi h\u0131rpalayan hanehalk\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ele al\u0131yor. Di\u011feri hammadde fiyatlar\u0131na ve hammadde ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ekonomilere bak\u0131yor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2349443380\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Raporun bir \u201ckutusu\u201d dikkatimi \u00e7ekti: \u201cK\u00fcresel Toparlanman\u0131n Neresindeyiz?\u201d Son elli y\u0131lda resesyondan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Yazarlar aras\u0131nda iki T\u00fcrk iktisat\u00e7\u0131 var: Ayhan K\u00f6se ve Ezgi \u00d6zt\u00fcrk. Ho\u015fuma gitti.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/haber.gazetevatan.com\/Haber\/444652\/1\/Gundem\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn kapitalizm sohbetine ara veriyorum. Ama laf\u0131m bitmedi. Okuyucu deste\u011fi de ald\u0131m. \u0130zleyici istekleri bile geliyor. Yani devam edece\u011fim. Arada \u00e7ok haber birikti. Baz\u0131lar\u0131na g\u00f6z&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14354"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14354\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}