{"id":1430,"date":"2011-06-13T09:31:44","date_gmt":"2011-06-13T06:31:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1430"},"modified":"2011-06-13T09:32:01","modified_gmt":"2011-06-13T06:32:01","slug":"piyasalarin-satin-aldigi-secenek-hayata-gecti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/piyasalarin-satin-aldigi-secenek-hayata-gecti\/","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar\u0131n sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7enek hayata ge\u00e7ti!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>GENEL se\u00e7imlerden piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlara dahil etti\u011fi sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. AKP\u2019nin yeniden tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidara gelmesinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir alternatif fiyatlanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn dolar 1.5550-1.5650 TL\u2019ye inebilir. \u0130MKB\u2019de ise 65.700 ve 66.350 seviyeleri kritik diren\u00e7 seviyeleri.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3739177133\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Genel se\u00e7imlerde AKP oylar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 50.2\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti buna kar\u015f\u0131n 550 milletvekilinin 326\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>AKP\u2019nin oylar\u0131n\u0131; 3. d\u00f6neminde kl\u00e2sik y\u0131pranma pay\u0131na ra\u011fmen; artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131 olarak kabul etmek gerek. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, se\u00e7im sisteminin ve n\u00fcfus de\u011fi\u015fimlerinin getirdi\u011fi art\u0131lar ve eksiler var! Hem AKP, CHP i\u00e7in hem de ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z olarak meclise girenler i\u00e7in&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda bu se\u00e7imde ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zlar, daha do\u011frusu k\u00fcrt n\u00fcfusun tercihleri ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zlar\u0131 tahminlerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Milletvekillikleri bir yana oylar\u0131n yar\u0131s\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 alm\u0131\u015f bir AKP ve 30\u2019dan fazla ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z se\u00e7ilmi\u015f milletvekili meclise girdi!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Se\u00e7im ihtimalleri nelerdi?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n piyasalara olas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131na bir g\u00f6z atal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>6 Haziran\u2019da Vatan\u2019daki yaz\u0131mda muhtemel sonu\u00e7lara de\u011finmi\u015f ve bunlar\u0131n piyasalara olas\u0131 yans\u0131malar\u0131n\u0131 dile getirmi\u015ftim:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSe\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na dair piyasa yorum ve beklentileri neler diye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda AKP\u2019nin alaca\u011f\u0131;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-145710205\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>I) 376\u2019den fazla milletvekili: &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>II) 330-376 aras\u0131nda milletvekili: &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>III) 330\u2019dan az say\u0131da ancak tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidara yetecek say\u0131da milletvekili: Piyasalarda \u015fu anda fiyatlanan olas\u0131l\u0131k. Yeni anayasa yap\u0131lacaksa bunun toplumsal mutabakatla yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7an bu se\u00e7enek ayn\u0131 zamanda tek parti \u201cistikrar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da \u201cmakul ve tercih edilen alternatif\u201d olarak kabul ediliyor.<\/p>\n<p>IV) 267\u2019nin alt\u0131nda milletvekili&#8230;\u201d<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1733832888\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcn ak\u015famki tahminler \u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fmemi\u015f ise piyasalar bu sonucu b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda \u201csat\u0131n alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u201d. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki olas\u0131 bir \u201cse\u00e7im sonras\u0131 rallisi\u201d \u00e7ok da uzun s\u00fcrmeyecektir. Bu ralli, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 4-5 ayda sat(a)mam\u0131\u015f olanlar i\u00e7in de iyi bir f\u0131rsat yaratacakt\u0131r. \u0130lk bak\u0131\u015fta k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bir tahmin gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de bu varsay\u0131m, g\u00f6rece olarak \u201cger\u00e7ek\u00e7i\u201d bir yakla\u015f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Neden mi?<\/p>\n<p>Piyasa AKP\u2019nin yeniden tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidara gelmesinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hemen hemen hi\u00e7 bir alternatifi \u201cfiyatlamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u201d. Yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmet kuruldu\u011funda, ekonomi kurmaylar\u0131nda \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir de\u011fi\u015fim de beklenmiyor. Yeni d\u00f6nemde 20 icrac\u0131 bakanl\u0131k ve 4 ba\u015fbakan yard\u0131mc\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan olu\u015fan bir h\u00fck\u00fcmet olacak. Peki ekonomi y\u00f6netiminde s\u00f6z konusu ekonomi kurmaylar\u0131ndan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 isimler g\u00f6recekmiyiz? G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki hay\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Olumlu hava k\u0131sa s\u00fcrecek<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>O zaman da piyasa se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre ilgi g\u00f6sterecektir! Sonras\u0131nda temel ekonomik verilere d\u00f6n\u00fclecektir. Bizim dinamiklerimize bak\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve not art\u0131\u015f\u0131 meseleleri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel hava olumsuz oldu\u011fundan dolay\u0131 da not art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u201ccari a\u00e7\u0131k fiyatlanacakt\u0131r\u201d! Hemen ilk g\u00fcnden de\u011filse de sonraki g\u00fcnlerde k\u00fcresel piyasalardaki dinamikler fiyatlanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasa kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin kurulmas\u0131yla \u00f6ncelikle d\u00fcmende kimin oldu\u011funa ve hangi \u201crota\u201d izlenece\u011fine bakacaklard\u0131r. B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u201ckaptan\u201d ayn\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Bu durumda da \u00f6zellikle cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile ilgili politikalar dikkatle izlenecek ve \u201cfiyatlanacakt\u0131r\u201d!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Dolar 1.56\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inebilir<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer tedbirler gecikecek olur ise alg\u0131lama, se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na ra\u011fmen bozulacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>Peki hemen ilk g\u00fcnden piyasalar nas\u0131l bir tepki verebilir diye k\u0131saca bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Dolar\/TL kurlar\u0131: TL\u2019nin dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1.5550-1.5650 seviyelerine kadar de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 ihtimali var. Ancak daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131s\u0131 \u015fimdilik (hele ki dolar\u0131n, euro kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 1.40\u2019\u0131n da alt\u0131na inme trendinde oldu\u011fu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nacak olur ise) zor g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130MKB 100 endeksi: 65.700 ve 66.350 seviyeleri iki kritik diren\u00e7 seviyesi. Bo\u015fluklu bir y\u00fckseli\u015fle bu seviyelerden herhangi birine gidilecek olursa, \u00e7ok da uzun olmayan gelecekte bu bo\u015fluk kapanacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>G\u00f6sterge bono faizleri: Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na en pozitif tepkiyi verecek piyasa sabit getirili menkul k\u0131ymetler piyasas\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. G\u00f6sterge bono faizlerinde y\u00fczde 8.68 ve ard\u0131ndan da 8.47 bile\u015fik seviyelerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ihtimali hayli y\u00fcksek!<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ali A\u011eAO\u011eLU<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GENEL se\u00e7imlerden piyasalar\u0131n fiyatlara dahil etti\u011fi sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. AKP\u2019nin yeniden tek ba\u015f\u0131na iktidara gelmesinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir alternatif fiyatlanmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn dolar 1.5550-1.5650 TL\u2019ye inebilir. \u0130MKB\u2019de ise&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1430\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}