{"id":14008,"date":"2012-04-10T14:17:38","date_gmt":"2012-04-10T12:17:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=14008"},"modified":"2012-04-10T14:17:58","modified_gmt":"2012-04-10T12:17:58","slug":"yumusak-inis-olasiligi-artiyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yumusak-inis-olasiligi-artiyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Yumu\u015fak \u0130ni\u015f Olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 Art\u0131yor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrk ekonomisi 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131k. A\u00e7\u0131k olmayan, bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n sert mi yoksa yumu\u015fak m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 noktas\u0131yd\u0131. \u015eimdi bu nokta da bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Gerek \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler gerekse d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan sanayi \u00fcretim verileri sert ini\u015fin olamayaca\u011f\u0131 sinyallerini veriyor. \u00d6zellikle \u015fubat ay\u0131ndaki sanayi \u00fcretiminin bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 4.4 oran\u0131nda artmas\u0131, takvim etkisinden ve mevsimsel etkiden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f verinin y\u00fczde 0.7 oran\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bu sav\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendiriyor. Bu rakamlar\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015f y\u0131llara k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funa ku\u015fku yok. Ancak ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ocak ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 19.2 ve \u015fubattaki y\u00fczde14 art\u0131\u015flarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu y\u0131l al\u0131nan sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n beklenenin \u00fczerinde bulundu\u011funun alt\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7izilmesi gerekiyor. \u0130lgi \u00e7eken noktalardan birisi de, t\u00fcketim ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 \u00fcretiminde ocak ay\u0131na g\u00f6re bir h\u0131zlanma olmas\u0131. T\u00fcketim mal\u0131 \u00fcretimi \u00f6nceki iki aya k\u0131yasla ortalama y\u00fczde 0.6 artt\u0131ktan sonra \u015fubat ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.8 y\u00fckselmi\u015f. Sermaye mal\u0131 \u00fcretimi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ise ocak ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 1.7, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 6.5 oran\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-387046269\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>ZOR KI\u015e KO\u015eULLARINA RA\u011eMEN&#8230;<\/strong> Bu y\u0131l \u015fubat ay\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok zor k\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131nda ge\u00e7irildi\u011fi de dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretimindeki bu sonucun olumlu oldu\u011funu belirtmek gerekiyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen d\u0131\u015f fon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ve d\u0131\u015f sat\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6zendiren bir d\u00f6viz kuru varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, imalat sanayiindeki \u00fcretimin fazla d\u00fc\u015fmemesine en fazla katk\u0131 sa\u011flayan iki fakt\u00f6r oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Sanayi \u00fcretimi ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki do\u011frusal ili\u015fkinin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin eksi rakamlarla \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nleyecek bir geli\u015fme oldu\u011funun da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izmek laz\u0131m. Daha \u00f6nceki hesaplamalar ve yorumlar 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;deki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oranlarda kalaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu. Bu sonu\u00e7 ancak 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde negatif rakamlar\u0131n \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilirdi. Bunun olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretimindeki dibe vuru\u015fu \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bekliyordum. Bu olmay\u0131nca 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 3-4 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kalma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da artt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ht-yazarlar\/gazi-ercel\/1119369-yumusak-inis-olasiligi-artiyor\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>T\u00fcrk ekonomisi 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finden itibaren yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131k. A\u00e7\u0131k olmayan, bu yava\u015flaman\u0131n sert mi yoksa yumu\u015fak m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 noktas\u0131yd\u0131. \u015eimdi bu nokta&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":418,"featured_media":5395,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14008","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/418"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14008"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14008\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5395"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14008"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14008"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14008"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}