{"id":13959,"date":"2012-04-09T14:39:14","date_gmt":"2012-04-09T12:39:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13959"},"modified":"2012-04-09T14:39:29","modified_gmt":"2012-04-09T12:39:29","slug":"buyumede-yumusak-inis-ne-kadar-yumusak-olabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyumede-yumusak-inis-ne-kadar-yumusak-olabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmede Yumu\u015fak \u0130ni\u015f Ne Kadar Yumu\u015fak Olabilir?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik olarak Merkez Bankas\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerle ekonomide yumu\u015fak ini\u015fi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini iddia ediyor. Konu hakk\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirenlerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 da yumu\u015fak ini\u015fin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmekte oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u00fczde 9 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda 14.4 milyar dolar olan cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda 46.6 milyar dolara (milli gelirin y\u00fczde 6&#8217;s\u0131) f\u0131rlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonomi y\u00fczde 8.6 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 77.2 milyar dolara (milli gelirin y\u00fczde 10&#8217;u) \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazdaki bu rakamlar yumu\u015fak ini\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenimi vermiyor. Konuya daha k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemler itibar\u0131yla bakmak gerekiyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2716545039\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>YUMU\u015eAK \u0130N\u0130\u015e YETMEZ<\/strong> Yumu\u015fak ini\u015fin ne oldu\u011fu tart\u0131\u015f\u0131labilecek bir konu. \u015e\u00f6yle bir tan\u0131m \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 olmayabilir. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 makul d\u00fczeylerde istikrara kavu\u015fturan asgari bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi yumu\u015fak bir ini\u015ftir. Ama, ini\u015fin yumu\u015fak olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fir. Y\u00fczde 9 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden y\u00fczde 2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7mek pek yumu\u015fak say\u0131lmaz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, y\u00fczde 9 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden y\u00fczde 5-6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ge\u00e7mek yumu\u015fak say\u0131labilir. Tan\u0131mdaki &#8220;cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131&#8221; kavram\u0131ndan &#8220;cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131&#8221; anla\u015f\u0131lmal\u0131d\u0131r. Bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fczeyinde istikrara kavu\u015fturulmas\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olamaz. Makul olacaksa, daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyler hedeflenmek zorunda. O halde, tan\u0131m \u015fu noktada kilitleniyor: T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u00fczde 5-6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fczeylerin alt\u0131nda bir yerde (\u00f6rne\u011fin, milli gelirin y\u00fczde 6&#8217;s\u0131) istikrara kavu\u015fturabilir mi? Bug\u00fcnk\u00fc yap\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00f6yle bir performans \u00e7ok olas\u0131 de\u011fil. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n istikrara kavu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha derin bir ini\u015fi gerektiriyor. Grafikten de bu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n bir y\u0131ldan di\u011ferine azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131llar hep ekonomik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmenin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u0131llard\u0131r. Bu resme bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 6 gibi bir d\u00fczeye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in yumu\u015fak ini\u015f tan\u0131m\u0131na s\u0131\u011fan bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 bulmak kolay de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ht-yazarlar\/ercan-kumcu\/1118415-buyumede-yumusak-inis-ne-kadar-yumusak-olabilir\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kontrol\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik olarak Merkez Bankas\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerle ekonomide yumu\u015fak ini\u015fi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fini iddia ediyor. Konu hakk\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f bildirenlerin baz\u0131lar\u0131 da yumu\u015fak ini\u015fin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmekte&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":9441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13959","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13959"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13959\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13959"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13959"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13959"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}