{"id":13937,"date":"2012-04-09T09:51:37","date_gmt":"2012-04-09T07:51:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13937"},"modified":"2012-04-09T09:55:22","modified_gmt":"2012-04-09T07:55:22","slug":"umut-parasal-genisleme-risk-ispanya-ve-ab","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/umut-parasal-genisleme-risk-ispanya-ve-ab\/","title":{"rendered":"Umut: Parasal Geni\u015fleme Risk: \u0130spanya ve AB"},"content":{"rendered":"<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bu hafta ana g\u00fcndemimiz parasal geni\u015fleme senaryolar\u0131 olacak. ABD\u2019de FED\u2019den ya da \u00c7in\u2019de PBoC\u2019den gelecek bir mesaj ge\u00e7en hafta olu\u015fan kara bulutlar\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tmaya yetecektir. Peki bu iki kurumdan birinden parasal geni\u015fleme ibaresi \u00e7\u0131kar m\u0131? \u00c7in\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanan son enflasyon verisi sonras\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda bir indirim yaparak bankalara enfes ald\u0131racak bir hamlede bulunma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 en az\u0131ndan bu ay i\u00e7in azald\u0131. ABD\u2019de FED \u00fcyelerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun parasal geni\u015flemeye kar\u015f\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck, fakat Bernanke\u2019de s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131nda ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011finin fark\u0131nda. Hisse senedi fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, bireylerin harcamalar\u0131nda ve ekonomiye olan g\u00fcveninde de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe neden oluyor. Bernake bu hafta yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda bu durumu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduracakt\u0131r diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Yani net bir parasal geni\u015fleme mesaj\u0131 veremeyecek olsa da bu se\u00e7ene\u011fin hala masada oldu\u011funu ima edebilir. Bu da piyasalar\u0131n olumlu reaksiyon vermesini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. <\/span><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k veriler gelmeye devam ediyor<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta da d\u00fcnya ekonomisine dair kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k veriler gelmeye devam etti. Avrupa taraf\u0131nda ekonomik veriler resesyonu i\u015faret ederken, ABD taraf\u0131nda haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00f6t\u00fc bir s\u00fcrpriz yapan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam rakamlar\u0131na kadar gelen her veri ABD ekonomisindeki toparlanmaya dair pozitif i\u015faretler veriyordu. Hatta gelen veriler o kadar pozitif bir hava yaratmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ki, FED \u00fcyelerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal geni\u015flemeye kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Hafta i\u00e7inde a\u00e7\u0131klanan FED A\u00e7\u0131k Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplant\u0131 tutanaklar\u0131nda 10 \u00fcyeden sadece 2 tanesinin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal geni\u015flemeden yana oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bunun \u00fczerine hafta i\u00e7inde faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 bas\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yapan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (ECB) Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Mario Draghi\u2019nin de enflasyon vurgusu \u00fczerinde durmas\u0131 AB taraf\u0131nda da yeni likidite ihalesi olmayacak alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rd\u0131 ve haftan\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerle ge\u00e7ti. <\/span><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131 yaratt\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Uzun s\u00fcredir ABD\u2019den gelen verilerin olumlu olmas\u0131na al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k. Paskalya tatili nedeniyle nerdeyse t\u00fcm Avrupa ve ABD\u2019de piyasalar\u0131n kapal\u0131 oldu\u011fu Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc gelen tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam rakamlar\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz bir \u015fekilde beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kald\u0131. 227 bin civar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 beklenen tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamda art\u0131\u015f, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz ekim ay\u0131ndan beri g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rakam olan 120 binde kald\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, beklenti olan %8,3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda %8,2 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdamdaki bu rakamlar, konu\u015fmalar\u0131nda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda her \u015feyin yoluna girmedi\u011fini vurgulayan Bernanke\u2019ye hak verir nitelikte. \u0130stihdam piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr bir d\u00fczelme olmadan FED\u2019in s\u0131f\u0131r faiz politikas\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mesinin ya da \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal geni\u015fleme senaryosunu tamamen rafa kald\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu nedenle bu hafta FED\u2019den gelecek a\u00e7\u0131klamalara daha dikkatli bakaca\u011f\u0131z. <\/span><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u0130spanya ve \u0130talya konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015fland\u0131<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta AB taraf\u0131nda \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya\u2019dan \u00e7ok ho\u015f kokular gelmedi\u011fine de\u011finmi\u015ftik. Bu hafta bu iki \u00fclkenin risk primlerinde ve faizlerinde ya\u015fanan art\u0131\u015f bu konuda haks\u0131z olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta da AB taraf\u0131nda ba\u015fta bu iki olmak \u00fczere sab\u0131kas\u0131 bulunan PIIGS \u00fclkelerini izlemeye devam edece\u011fiz. Bu hafta yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda veri trafi\u011fi \u00f6nceki haftalara g\u00f6re daha sakin. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ABD taraf\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanmaya ba\u015flayacak bilan\u00e7olar, piyasalarda hareketlili\u011fe neden olabilir. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u00fcminyum \u00fcreticisi Alcoa\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7osuyla ba\u015flayacak s\u00fcre\u00e7 yakla\u015f\u0131k bir bu\u00e7uk ay devam edecek. Bu \u00e7eyrekteki beklentilerin son d\u00f6nemlerin en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerini ifade etmesi ve bunun da zaten fiyatlarda olmas\u0131, iyi gelecek bir bilan\u00e7onun piyasalara ekstra moral vermesini sa\u011flayabilir. \u0130\u00e7eride ise bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u015fubat ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi ile \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan \u00f6demeler dengesi tablosunu takip edece\u011fiz. <\/span><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Sanayi \u00fcretimi olumlu<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u015fubat ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi verisi beklentilerin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Genel beklenti %2,7 art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde iken sanayi \u00fcretimi \u015fubatta %4,4 art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Yo\u011fun k\u0131\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olumlu. Bu durum \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda da bu verideki beklentileri y\u00fckseltecektir. \u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u00d6zetle\u2026<\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak veriler aras\u0131nda piyasalarda \u00e7ok sert reaksiyon olu\u015fturacak bir veri yok. Parasal geni\u015fleme ve AB\u2019de \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere sorunlu \u00fclkelerin performanslar\u0131n\u0131 takip edece\u011fiz. Bu iki konudan biri g\u00fcndeme gelecek olursa piyasalarda ani ve sert hareketler olabilir. Aksi takdirde s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc izleyebiliriz.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/h4>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000\">\u00d6nemli Not:<\/span> Sabahlar\u0131 yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z VOB Endeks 30 Yak\u0131n Vade yorumlar\u0131 ve di\u011fer t\u00fcm analizlerimize ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler Twitter ve Facebook hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 takip ediniz. <\/span><\/h3>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Twitter i\u00e7in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/#!\/MARBAS_MENKUL\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ<br \/>\n<\/a>Facebook i\u00e7in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pages\/Marba%C5%9F-Menkul-De%C4%9Ferler\/102835336505320?ref=tn_tnmn\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri;font-size: small\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Telefon: (0212) 286 30 00<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3810977476\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu hafta ana g\u00fcndemimiz parasal geni\u015fleme senaryolar\u0131 olacak. ABD\u2019de FED\u2019den ya da \u00c7in\u2019de PBoC\u2019den gelecek bir mesaj ge\u00e7en hafta olu\u015fan kara bulutlar\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tmaya yetecektir. Peki&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13937\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}