{"id":13853,"date":"2012-04-06T08:57:18","date_gmt":"2012-04-06T06:57:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13853"},"modified":"2012-04-06T08:57:29","modified_gmt":"2012-04-06T06:57:29","slug":"dunya-ekonomisi-nerdeyiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dunya-ekonomisi-nerdeyiz\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnya Ekonomisi: Nerdeyiz?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bir ka\u00e7 haftad\u0131r k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131lar\u0131m azald\u0131, fark\u0131nday\u0131m, ama enerjimin \u00e7o\u011fu Korsan Finans videolar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye sarfediliyor.\u00a0 Ben bir sonraki treni yakalad\u0131m bile. Seneye hi\u00e7 yaz\u0131 yok, her \u015fey an\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fc.\u00a0 \u0130ki sene sonra, sesli, ve interaktif, yaz\u0131y\u0131 okurken soru soracaks\u0131n, cevap alacaks\u0131n.\u00a0 \u00dc\u00e7 sene sonra, Apple ap, direk kal\u0131mn barsaklara \u00e7ip yerle\u015ftiriyoruz, \u201cF\u00d6\u015e\u201d diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcn m\u00fc, hemen benim akl\u0131mdan ne ge\u00e7iyor g\u00f6bi\u015finde hissedeceksin.\u00a0 Ebediyen TT olaca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1938529541\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ancak, bu s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda ilmi tetkik ve m\u00fclahazalar\u0131m\u0131 da eksik etmedim.\u00a0 Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fini tamamlad\u0131ktan sonra d\u00fcnya ekonomisi yolun neresinde sorusuna cevap arayabiliriz.\u00a0 \u00d6zellikle, miletin gemi s\u0131\u00e7anlar\u0131 gibi riskli varl\u0131klar\u0131 terketti\u011fi bu g\u00fcnlerde bu soruya cevap aramak \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli.\u00a0 En sonunda ise Fed ve AMB\u2019n\u0131n\u00a0 para basma g\u00fcnleri bitti mi sorusuna cevap verece\u011fim.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde az \u00e7ok 2011 Fuku\u015fima depremi ve n\u00fckleer facias\u0131 \u00f6ncesi g\u00fcnlere d\u00f6nd\u00fck.\u00a0 Zaten, sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n bir nedeni bu, o t\u00fcyler \u00fcrperten deja vu, yani\u00a0 biz bu filmi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck hissi.\u00a0 Yine ABD toparlan\u0131yor, yine \u00c7in d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomisi, yine AB krizi hortluyor korkular\u0131 var. Ama, Kara Ku\u011fu vakalar her sene ya\u015fanmaz. Her sene ya\u015fansalard\u0131, adlar\u0131 AK Ku\u011fu olurdu zaten.\u00a0 Tabii, ben bu sat\u0131rlar\u0131 yazarken Japonya\u2019n\u0131n tarihinin en feci tayfunlar\u0131ndan biri taraf\u0131ndan \u00a0tar-u-mar edilmesi \u00a0de kaderin bana ac\u0131 bir cilvesi.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019de art\u0131k ekonomik yava\u015flama d\u00f6nemi sona erdi.\u00a0 \u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte %8.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f, belki ikinci \u00e7eyrekte bu oran %7.5-8\u2019e geriler. Ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ufukta %7.5-8\u2019de yoluna devam eder.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerin aksine, \u00c7in Politb\u00fcro\u2019su bu tempodan memnun g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bence parasal gev\u015feme yerine \u201cparasal normalle\u015fme\u201d yap\u0131lacak. Yani a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseltilen munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar normale indirilirken, sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda kredi k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 da a\u011f\u0131r a\u011f\u0131r y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fckten kald\u0131r\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n<p>Japonya bu senenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u011flam\u0131nda en ho\u015f s\u00fcrprizi yapan ekonomisi olabilir. Deprem sonras\u0131 harcamalar kadar, dolar ve di\u011fer b\u00fcy\u00fck para birimlerine kar\u015f\u0131 de\u011fer kaybeden yen\u2019in de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye olumlu katk\u0131s\u0131 var.\u00a0 K\u00fcresel risk i\u015ftah\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fck\u00e7e, en az\u0131ndan korkuya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmedik\u00e7e, Japonya\u2019n\u0131n bir kez daha resesyona girmesi i\u00e7in neden yok.\u00a0 Ama, deflasyonu atlatmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli olan k\u00f6kl\u00fc yap\u0131sal ve b\u00fct\u00e7e reformlar\u0131ndan da \u00a0eser yok.<\/p>\n<p>AB bence geberik durumda. S&amp;P\u2019ye g\u00f6re, K\u0131ta en erken 3\u00c72012 sonunda resesyondan \u00e7\u0131kacak.\u00a0 Hayal kuruyorlar.\u00a0 Euro, PIIGS \u00fclkelerinin resesyondan \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok pahal\u0131.\u00a0 Zaten daralan ve yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fimin a\u011f\u0131r sosyal y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc ta\u015f\u0131yamayan G\u00fcney Devletleri\u2019ne bir de a\u011f\u0131r b\u00fct\u00e7e kesintileri dayat\u0131l\u0131yor.\u00a0 G\u00fcven fakt\u00f6r\u00fc t\u00fcm K\u0131ta\u2019da s\u0131f\u0131r.\u00a0 T\u00fcketici harcamaktan korkuyor.\u00a0 Bence Euro-b\u00f6lgesi bu sene\u00a0 %1-1.5 civar\u0131nda daralacak.\u00a0 Merkel aptalca politikalar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mezse, yani Yang\u0131n Duvarlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltilmezse Euro-b\u00f6lgesi 21ci Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ikinci ony\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n Japonya\u2019s\u0131 olmaya aday.<\/p>\n<p>Asya ve Latin Amerika ge\u00e7en sene kadar olmasa da, yine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme sergiliyor. Ama, bir \u00f6nceki makalemi hat\u0131rlay\u0131n.\u00a0 Bu b\u00f6lgelerin hakim ekonomileri art\u0131k sanayile\u015fme ve \u015fehirle\u015fme s\u00fcrecini tamlamamaya yakla\u015f\u0131yor. \u00a0\u00a0\u00d6necelik ihracat vas\u0131tas\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kadar, sosyal reformlar,\u00a0 adalet, \u00e7evre koruma gibi ba\u015fl\u0131klar.<\/p>\n<p>ABD 1\u00c72012 sonunda %2.5-3 gibi bir tempoda b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, yani 2-3 vites aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f bir noktada. \u0130lerleyen \u00e7eyreklerde ne olacak sorusuna ise cevap bulmak g\u00fc\u00e7.\u00a0 Bir yanda, ABD ekonomisinin \u00e7ok klasik \u00f6rg\u00fcs\u00fc (pattern) olan i\u00e7 dinamiklerle gittik\u00e7e h\u0131zlanan b\u00fcy\u00fcme senaryosu var.\u00a0 D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz, artan istihdam ve \u00fccretler, bankalar\u0131n ve t\u00fcketicinin yeniden g\u00fcven kazanmas\u0131 ile %4 veya \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kabilecek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1269198258\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ama, tersi daha olas\u0131.\u00a0 ABD ekonomisinin \u00f6n\u00fcnde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fck handikap var.\u00a0 Birincisi, konut sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde d\u00fczelme b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde federal devlet ve 50 eyalet taraf\u0131ndan hileli ve eksik evrakla \u00a0haciz i\u015flemleri y\u00fcz\u00fcnden dava edilen bankalar.\u00a0 Bunlar 1.5 y\u0131l boyunca haciz ve hara\u00e7 mezat sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 durdurdular.\u00a0 \u015eimdi, uzla\u015fma sa\u011fland\u0131, bankalar 20 milyar dolar \u00f6deyip topluca dava edilmekten kurtuldu.\u00a0 Yine eski numaralara ba\u015flad\u0131lar.\u00a0 Konut pazar\u0131nda sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n nerdeyse %30\u2019u bu hara\u00e7 mezat, bilan\u00e7odan ceset bo\u015faltma operasyonlar\u0131. \u00a0Bunlar piyasan\u0131n dengesini k\u00f6t\u00fc bozuyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130kincisi ABD\u2019de otomatik b\u00fct\u00e7e kesintileri. Bunlar bu sene b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden en az %0.5 tra\u015flar. E\u011eER Obama se\u00e7ilir, Kongre yine Cumhuriyet\u00e7iler\u2019de kal\u0131rsa ya da tersi olursa, gelecek sene de uzla\u015fma sa\u011flanmaz ve otomatik kesintiler ekonomiden 2013-2014\u2019de \u00a0s\u0131ras\u0131 ile %1 ve %2 tra\u015flamaya ba\u015flar.\u00a0 \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc neden ise petrol.\u00a0 ABD\u2019de petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar do\u011fal gaz pazar\u0131nda liberalle\u015fme ve artan arz sayesinde eskisi kadar t\u00fcketicinin can\u0131n\u0131 yakm\u0131yor, yine de her\u015feyin bir haddi var.\u00a0 WTI 120-130 dolara \u00e7\u0131karsa, ABD\u2019de motorlar yava\u015flar.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6yleyse hesap basit. ABD ve Japonya haricinde ge\u00e7en seneden h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydeden yok.\u00a0 Aksine AB\u00a0 daralabilir. ABD\u2019de 1Y2012\u2019de birinci yar\u0131n\u0131n temposunun muhafaza edilmesi zor. \u00d6zetle 1\u00c72012 sonunda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi krizi geride b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f, ama yaralar\u0131 daha tam saramam\u0131\u015f durumda. \u00dc\u00e7 senaryo var. Birincisi yeni \u015foklar yiyip \u0130kinci Dip\u2019e kayar.\u00a0 \u0130kincisi yava\u015f yava\u015f artan \u00a0global ticaretle b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlan\u0131r ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir d\u00fczeye gelir. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, \u00a0geli\u015fmi\u015f devletler kamu borcu sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 hallederken \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcre, belki 5 y\u0131l, trendin alt\u0131nda, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcreten bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposunda yola devam ederiz.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ekonomihaberyorum.com\/dunya-ekonomisi-nerdeyiz\/\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-416326795\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bir ka\u00e7 haftad\u0131r k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131lar\u0131m azald\u0131, fark\u0131nday\u0131m, ama enerjimin \u00e7o\u011fu Korsan Finans videolar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye sarfediliyor.\u00a0 Ben bir sonraki treni yakalad\u0131m bile. Seneye hi\u00e7 yaz\u0131 yok,&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13853","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13853","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13853"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13853\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13853"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13853"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13853"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}