{"id":13779,"date":"2012-04-04T20:33:08","date_gmt":"2012-04-04T18:33:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13779"},"modified":"2012-04-04T20:33:18","modified_gmt":"2012-04-04T18:33:18","slug":"abd-secimleri-irani-iran-faktoru-petrolu-petrol-de-bizi-etkiler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/abd-secimleri-irani-iran-faktoru-petrolu-petrol-de-bizi-etkiler\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD se\u00e7imleri \u0130ran&#8217;\u0131 \u0130ran fakt\u00f6r\u00fc petrol\u00fc petrol de bizi etkiler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mart ay\u0131 rakamlar\u0131 ile enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00e7ift haneli olmaya devam ediyor. Hatta \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10.43 d\u00fczeyinde sabit kalarak herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131lki mart ay\u0131 verisi y\u00fczde 0.43 idi, bu y\u0131lki y\u00fczde 0.42 d\u00fczeyinde \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k birikimli enflasyon da y\u00fczde 1.55 ile \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemiyle hemen hemen ayn\u0131 kald\u0131. Enflasyon ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 10.45 ile kapatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu durumda ilk \u00e7eyrekteki paralellik bu y\u0131l da enflasyonda k\u00f6t\u00fcye gidi\u015fi mi g\u00f6steriyor?<br \/>\nHemen belirtelim ki, k\u00f6t\u00fcy\u00fc de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ge\u00e7en y\u0131l enflasyon y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ray\u0131ndan \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00d6zellikle ekim ve kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2-3 d\u00fczeyine varan art\u0131\u015flar, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda enflasyonu \u00e7ift haneli rakamlara \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bunda da d\u00f6viz kurundaki y\u00fckselme etkili olmu\u015ftu. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131ldan gelen bu y\u00fcksek baz, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in avantaja d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecek ve y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc etki yapacak.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1407724131\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>ZOR D\u00d6NEM:\u00a0<\/strong>Enflasyonda zor olan d\u00f6nem ise yap\u0131lan son enerji zamlar\u0131 ile birlikte nisandan itibaren ge\u00e7ecek birka\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nem olacak. Bu zamlar\u0131n kal\u0131c\u0131 etkisinin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 0.52 d\u00fczeyinde olaca\u011f\u0131 Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan hesaplanm\u0131\u015f. E\u011fer devam\u0131nda yeni kamusal zamlar gelmeyecekse y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda baz etkisinin de devreye girmesiyle enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi belirginle\u015febilir.<br \/>\nBunun olabilmesi, \u00f6ncelikle petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmemesine ve TL&#8217;nin de\u011ferinde istikrarl\u0131 gidi\u015fe ba\u011fl\u0131.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>PETROL F\u0130YATLARI NE OLUR:<\/strong>\u00a0Benim tahminim bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in petrol fiyatlar\u0131 konusunda en k\u00f6t\u00fcn\u00fcn geride b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 25&#8217;lik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ana nedeni H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n \u0130ran gerginli\u011fi nedeniyle deniz trafi\u011fine kapat\u0131labilece\u011fi ihtimaliydi. Son geli\u015fmeler sanki ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Obama&#8217;n\u0131n kas\u0131m ay\u0131ndaki ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerine kadar Ortado\u011fu&#8217;da veya ba\u015fka yerde herhangi bir risk veya sorunu istemedi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Bu iradesi ge\u00e7erli olursa \u0130ran&#8217;a bu y\u0131l m\u00fcdahale olmaz. H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131 da kapanmaz. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda bu nedenle meydana gelen art\u0131\u015flar da, geri verilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda bu y\u00fckselmeyi gerektirecek kadar k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme yok. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 bu nedenle y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcremedi ve yatay seyre d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<br \/>\nK\u00fcresel bazda tarif etti\u011fimiz bu durum Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama 110 dolarl\u0131k ham petrol fiyat tahminiyle uyumlu. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde gev\u015feyecek olmas\u0131 akaryak\u0131t \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine yeni bir zam olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ht-yazarlar\/abdurrahman-yildirim\/1115061-abd-secimleri-irani-iran-faktoru-petrolu-petrol-de-bizi-etkiler\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mart ay\u0131 rakamlar\u0131 ile enflasyon y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda \u00e7ift haneli olmaya devam ediyor. Hatta \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10.43 d\u00fczeyinde sabit kalarak herhangi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":994,"featured_media":12631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/994"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13779"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13779\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}