{"id":13745,"date":"2012-04-04T08:48:52","date_gmt":"2012-04-04T06:48:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13745"},"modified":"2012-04-04T08:49:13","modified_gmt":"2012-04-04T06:49:13","slug":"hizli-buyumusuz-ama-yavaslamisiz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hizli-buyumusuz-ama-yavaslamisiz\/","title":{"rendered":"H\u0131zl\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f\u00fcz Ama Yava\u015flam\u0131\u015f\u0131z"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131 veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan verimli ge\u00e7ti. \u00d6nce 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyrek ve b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Merakla bekleniyordu. Uzun laf\u0131n k\u0131sas\u0131n\u0131 hemen s\u00f6yleyeyim; beklentileri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan bir bulgu yok. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc ise Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Buradaki uzun laf\u0131n k\u0131sas\u0131 ise \u015f\u00f6yle; fiyatlar beklendi\u011fi kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 artm\u0131yor zira Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 genel beklentinin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4094675301\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ekonomi y\u00fczde 5.2 h\u0131z\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f. B\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fc, sert ini\u015f yapaca\u011f\u0131z vs gibi de\u011ferlendirmelerin ortal\u0131kta dola\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnlerde y\u00fczde 5.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmak\u00a0 koltuklar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 kabartm\u0131\u015f olabilir. Aman dikkat.\u00a0 Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u015fi biraz kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k i\u015f. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131na ait. Yani, bug\u00fcn itibariyle kabaca \u00fc\u00e7 ay \u00f6ncenin say\u0131lar\u0131na bak\u0131yoruz. Hatta d\u00f6nemin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na d\u00f6nersek,\u00a0 alt\u0131 ay \u00f6nce ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f bir dinami\u011fin istatistik verilerini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Tamam, sonu\u00e7 pek fena de\u011fil.\u00a0 Ama,\u00a0 bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ko\u015fullar da &#8220;ge\u00e7mi\u015fe mazi denir&#8221; dedirtecek kadar farkl\u0131. Onun i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi duyunca ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 tavan vurmay\u0131n. O mazide kalm\u0131\u015f bir durum.<br \/>\n*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<br \/>\nBu s\u00f6ylediklerim ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi bu y\u0131l\u0131 hi\u00e7 ilgilendirmez anlam\u0131na da gelmiyor tabii. Tersine, kendi ad\u0131ma, biten y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n gelen y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 ivmesini etkilemesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcr\u00fcm. Bu nedenle 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n biti\u015f ivmesinin y\u00fczde 5 in \u00fczerinde\u00a0 olmas\u0131n\u0131, bu y\u0131l genel-k\u00fcresel bir yava\u015flama konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fc ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u00a0 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcnce,\u00a0 \u00f6nemli bir ivme olarak kabul etmek do\u011fru olur.<\/p>\n<p>2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde ekonominin y\u00fczde 8.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu da dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken bir oran. Ayn\u0131 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde \u00c7in ve Arjantin&#8217;in arkas\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131raya yerle\u015ftirmi\u015f bizi. Yani, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye i\u015faret ediyor. Bu senenin yava\u015flama konjonkt\u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00f6yle bir tempo ile kar\u015f\u0131lam\u0131\u015f\u0131z anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z. Y\u00fcksek h\u0131zdan yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flaman\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131 etkileyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, yeni a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerde\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi\u00a0 yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131 etkenlerin ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde devreye girdi\u011fini, yava\u015flaman\u0131n o tarihte ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steren i\u015faretler de var.<br \/>\nBu etkenlerden en \u00f6nemlisi \u00f6zel\u00a0 harcamalardaki hat\u0131r\u0131 say\u0131l\u0131r yava\u015flama. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 2011 in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f. Bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte bu say\u0131 y\u00fczde 7.8.\u00a0 Yani, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131nda i\u00e7 talebin en b\u00fcy\u00fck kalemi olan \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131nda ciddi bir yava\u015flama var. Bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcme dostu bir geli\u015fme olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak, bu de\u011ferlendirme ba\u011flam\u0131nda iki noktay\u0131 g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131rmamak gerekiyor. \u00d6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki fren y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131na \u00f6zg\u00fc bir durum de\u011fil. Y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren b\u00f6yle bir e\u011filimin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6zleniyor.\u00a0 Bu bir. Y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131ndaki t\u00fcketim harcamas\u0131 yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n o tarihteki iktisat politikas\u0131 tercihinden, \u00f6zellikle para otoritesinin kredilere getirdi\u011fi k\u0131s\u0131tlardan etkilendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek do\u011fru olur.\u00a0 Bu da iki. \u0130lk noktan\u0131n genel yava\u015flama e\u011filimi ile uyumlu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Ancak ikinci etkenin ar\u0131zi nitelikte oldu\u011funu,\u00a0 i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz\u00a0 y\u0131la ta\u015f\u0131nmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/hizli-buyumusuz-ama-yavaslamisiz-147927yy.htm\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131 veri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan verimli ge\u00e7ti. \u00d6nce 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00e7eyrek ve b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Merakla bekleniyordu. Uzun laf\u0131n k\u0131sas\u0131n\u0131 hemen s\u00f6yleyeyim;&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13745\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}