{"id":13742,"date":"2012-04-04T08:47:10","date_gmt":"2012-04-04T06:47:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13742"},"modified":"2012-04-04T08:47:25","modified_gmt":"2012-04-04T06:47:25","slug":"buyume-ve-enflasyon-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyume-ve-enflasyon-2\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve Enflasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomimizin 1960 &#8211; 2011 aras\u0131ndaki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 4.5 d\u00fczeyinde. Son on y\u0131lda bu oran bir miktar yukar\u0131ya gitmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ama az sonra tart\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m gibi bu olgunun kal\u0131c\u0131 olmas\u0131 kuvvetli bir ihtimal de\u011fil. 2002 &#8211; 2011 d\u00f6neminde T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.3 oldu. Son iki y\u0131lda, her iki ortalaman\u0131n da \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. 2010&#8217;da y\u00fczde 9.2 ve 2011&#8217;de y\u00fczde 8.5.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-838275801\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 vermemin nedeni san\u0131yorum belirginle\u015fiyor. Hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkenin potansiyelinin \u00fczerinde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 uzun s\u00fcre devam ettirmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Dikkat: Potansiyelinin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn ama bunu kal\u0131c\u0131 k\u0131lmas\u0131 olanaks\u0131z. Otomobil benzetmesi yapabilirsiniz mesela. Motor hacmi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir otomobile son gaz y\u00fcklenerek devir g\u00f6stergesinin ibresini k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 b\u00f6lgeye getirirseniz motor ba\u011f\u0131rmaya ba\u015flar. Bir s\u00fcre b\u00f6yle gitseniz de eninde sonunda motorunuz teslim bayra\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekecektir. Biraz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 s\u00fcrmek istiyorsan\u0131z motor hacmi y\u00fcksek bir otomobil alman\u0131z gerekir.<\/p>\n<p>Peki, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z ne? \u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar teknik baz\u0131 y\u00f6ntemlerle bir \u00fclkenin potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayabiliyorlar: \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne, sermaye stokuna, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn beceri d\u00fczeyine ve verimlili\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131. Bir de genellikle kullan\u0131lan basit bir y\u00f6ntem var: Uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 almak yeterli bir fikir veriyor. Elbette potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmez bir \u015fey de\u011fil. Yap\u0131sal reformlarla de\u011fi\u015ftirebilirsiniz. Ama bu, bug\u00fcnden yar\u0131na ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecek bir \u015fey de\u011fil. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, birka\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k, hatta be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmalar i\u00e7in potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 veri olarak alabilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ster teknik bir y\u00f6ntemle hesaplans\u0131n, isterse genellikle k\u0131sa yoldan yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi uzun d\u00f6nemli ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 olarak al\u0131ns\u0131n, potansiyel b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n son iki y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu hemen ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu durumda, 2010-2011&#8217;deki y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla belirtebiliriz.<\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki benzetmeler bir tarafa b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu durumun neden s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez oldu\u011funa iktisadi \u00f6rnekler de vermek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130lk akla geleni elbette cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131. Kendi tasarruflar\u0131m\u0131z h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmek i\u00e7in yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 finanse edemiyor. H\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin dayatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek i\u015fletme sermayesi ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 da kar\u015f\u0131layam\u0131yor. Bu durumda yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n birikimlerine ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z art\u0131yor. Yani, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan d\u00f6viz cinsinden bor\u00e7 bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz.<br \/>\nHem 2010&#8217;da hem de 2011&#8217;de y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdik. \u00d6zellikle 2011&#8217;deki \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeydeydi. \u00dcstelik bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ile finanse ettik. Hi\u00e7bir \u00fclkeye kimse s\u00fcrekli olarak bu kadar bor\u00e7 vermez. Bu nedenle y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve sonucunda olu\u015fan y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez.<\/p>\n<p><strong>S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik ve d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Elbette her &#8216;s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez durum&#8217; bir s\u00fcre s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir. Zaten 2012&#8217;ye ili\u015fkin as\u0131l tart\u0131\u015fma konusu da bu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemezli\u011fin daha ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilece\u011fi. Uzun bir s\u00fcre T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda sert bir fren mi yapaca\u011f\u0131, yoksa yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 m\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u015fiddetinin az \u00f6nceki tart\u0131\u015fmadan yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bulabilece\u011fimiz bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131k. Oysa o miktar bizim elimizde de\u011fil. T\u00fcrkiye yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131labilir bir \u00fclke olsa da, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda i\u015fler kar\u0131\u015f\u0131p risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyorsa bor\u00e7lanmakta zorlan\u0131yoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3886211130\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2010 ve 2011&#8217;deki y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin temel nedeninin k\u00fcresel finansal piyasalardaki bol likidite oldu\u011funu biliyoruz. Bunu yaratan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131, en az\u0131ndan 2014&#8217;e kadar bu durumda bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Mevcut likiditeye, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 son d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde 1 trilyon euro daha ekledi. Son g\u00fcnlerde hava biraz bozulmu\u015f olsa da, s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim geli\u015fmeler 2011&#8217;in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha iyimser bir hava yaratt\u0131. Bu, k\u00fcresel risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131nda bir miktar toparlanma anlam\u0131na geliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da bizim s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez durumun, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan bor\u00e7lanma olana\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla b\u0131\u00e7akla kesilir gibi sona ermesi ihtimali azal\u0131yor. Art\u0131k temel senaryo, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez durumun giderek &#8216;daha az s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez&#8217; bir duruma \u00e7evrilmesi. Yani, bir ara korkuldu\u011fu gibi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z pat diye s\u0131f\u0131ra do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015fmeyecek. Birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla, y\u00fczde 3-4 oran\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha ula\u015f\u0131labilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yava\u015flama \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Son \u00e7eyrekte T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 5.2 d\u00fczeyinde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. \u0130\u00e7 talebin buna katk\u0131s\u0131 2.4 puan, d\u0131\u015f talebin ise 3.2 puan oldu. D\u0131\u015f talebin \u00e7ok katk\u0131 vermesinin temel nedeni ise ihracatta ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir art\u0131\u015f falan de\u011fil; ithalat\u0131n azalmas\u0131. GSYH&#8217;nin &#8216;mal ve hizmet ithalat\u0131&#8217; alt kaleminin y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 birka\u00e7 d\u00f6nemdir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. 2011&#8217;in son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise sadece art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda de\u011fil kendisinde de azalma var. Bu, i\u00e7 talebin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6nemli bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n<p>Mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131na verdi\u011fi katk\u0131n\u0131n normal bir d\u00fczeyde oldu\u011funu belirttim az \u00f6nce. Mesela 2003-2007 d\u00f6neminde \u00e7eyrekler itibariyle y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131na mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131n\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131 ortalama 1.95 puan olmu\u015f. Bu d\u00f6nemdeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 6.9 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatay\u0131m. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verdi\u011fi katk\u0131 ise 1.55 puan. Son \u00e7eyrekteki katk\u0131 ise bunun biraz \u00fczerinde: 1.65 puan. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, kriz \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131da bir art\u0131\u015f yok; aksine az da olsa bir azal\u0131\u015f var. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 2011&#8217;in son \u00e7eyre\u011findeki temposunun 2012&#8217;de de s\u00fcrmesi durumunda, 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3934307506\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Daha g\u00fcncel veriler de ekonominin yava\u015flamakta oldu\u011funa dair sinyaller veriyorlar. Yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda belirgin bir azalma var. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler de bir s\u00fcredir yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret ediyorlar. Sekiz haftal\u0131k ortalamalar al\u0131narak bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, hem lira cinsinden hem de yabanc\u0131 para cinsinden kredilerin haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlar\u0131ndaki 2011&#8217;in ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda ya\u015fanan &#8216;\u00e7\u0131lg\u0131n&#8217; art\u0131\u015flar art\u0131k g\u00f6zlenmiyor. Mesela lira cinsinden (son sekiz haftal\u0131k) kredilerin haftal\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlar\u0131n\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 2011&#8217;in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.58 iken, y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ayn\u0131 de\u011fer y\u00fczde 0.26 d\u00fczeyinde.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130hracat<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><\/strong>Mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131ndan yukar\u0131da s\u00f6z ettim. \u015eimdi s\u0131ra sadece mal ihracat\u0131na bakmaya geldi. Ge\u00e7en hafta \u015fubat ay\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 euro, yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 da dolar cinsinden yap\u0131yoruz. Bu iki farkl\u0131 kalemde son aylarda g\u00f6zlenen e\u011filimlerde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131. \u00dc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k toplamlar olarak \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, euro cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 2011&#8217;in \u015fubat ay\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u015fubat ay\u0131nda da devam etti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, dolar cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla son alt\u0131 ayd\u0131r istikrarl\u0131 bir bi\u00e7imde y\u00fczde 20 dolaylar\u0131nda art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu iki \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 e\u011filim bir kez daha ihracat\u0131n temel belirleyicisinin sadece d\u00f6viz kuru olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Mal satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fclkelerin gelir d\u00fczeyi de bir o kadar \u00f6nemli. Avrupa Birli\u011fi&#8217;nin bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 giderek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Mesela Euro B\u00f6lgesi 2011&#8217;de y\u00fczde 1.6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Ne var ki 2012&#8217;de B\u00f6lge&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 0.5 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. Bu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u015fu s\u0131ralar ya\u015fan\u0131yor ve euro cinsinden ihracat rakamlar\u0131m\u0131za da olumsuz y\u00f6nde yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131scas\u0131, 2012&#8217;de ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 2011&#8217;dekinden daha y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek i\u00e7in bir neden yok. En az\u0131ndan \u015fimdilik yok. K\u0131sacas\u0131, 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ihracat \u015fekillendirmeyecek, 2012&#8217;de ne kadar fren yapmak zorunda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z belirleyecek. Yani, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fimi belirleyecek.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Enflasyon&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.dunya.com\/buyume-ve-enflasyon-147921yy.htm\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomimizin 1960 &#8211; 2011 aras\u0131ndaki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 4.5 d\u00fczeyinde. Son on y\u0131lda bu oran bir miktar yukar\u0131ya gitmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ama az sonra&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13742","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13742","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13742"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13742\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13742"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13742"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13742"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}