{"id":13739,"date":"2012-04-04T08:44:37","date_gmt":"2012-04-04T06:44:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13739"},"modified":"2012-04-04T08:44:48","modified_gmt":"2012-04-04T06:44:48","slug":"buyuyerek-gelecegi-tuketmek-basari-midir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyuyerek-gelecegi-tuketmek-basari-midir\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcyerek Gelece\u011fi T\u00fcketmek Ba\u015far\u0131 m\u0131d\u0131r?"},"content":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan hesaplanan ve a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 8.5 olmu\u015f ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na has\u0131la 10.444 dolara y\u00fckselmi\u015f. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00c7in’in ard\u0131ndan ikinci en iyi performans yakalanm\u0131\u015f. Bu a\u015famada sormak gerekiyor. S\u00f6z konusu veriler bug\u00fcn dile getirildi\u011fi gibi bir ba\u015far\u0131 \u00f6yk\u00fcs\u00fc m\u00fcd\u00fcr, yoksa gelecekte ciddi maliyetleri olabilecek bir ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131k m\u0131d\u0131r? E\u011fer bu bir ba\u015far\u0131 ise neden cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00f6ncelkili rahats\u0131zl\u0131k oda\u011f\u0131 olarak alg\u0131lan\u0131yor ve neden tasarruf yetersizli\u011finden \u015fik\u00e2yet ediliyor? Yine neden Banka\u0131l\u0131k Denetleme ve D\u00fczenleme Kurulu sorunlu kredi hacminin artmas\u0131ndan endi\u015fe ediyor?..
\n\u015eahsen ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131ya de\u011fil, ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret etti\u011fini, ortada \u00f6v\u00fcn\u00fclebilecek bir durum olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Zira siyasi irade ve d\u00fczenleyici kurumlar\u0131n, 2010 y\u0131l\u0131 ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda hissedilen \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak ve yumu\u015fak ini\u015fik m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lmak ad\u0131na ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler umulan sonucu verememi\u015f, kredi arz\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ve cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme yeterince dizginlenememi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bireyler t\u00fcketimde, kurumlar ise yat\u0131r\u0131mda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 uyar\u0131lara ra\u011fmen zorlam\u0131\u015f; bu durum an\u0131lan d\u00f6nemler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kamu ve mali sekt\u00f6r\u00fc rahatlatm\u0131\u015f, fakat t\u00fcm ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k artm\u0131\u015f. Hem fiyat istikrar\u0131, hem de finansal istikrar tehlikeye girmi\u015f. Bu a\u015famada gecikmeli olarak devreye giren son enerji zamlar\u0131n\u0131n birey ve kurumlar\u0131 gafil avlamas\u0131 \u00f6nlenememi\u015f!.. Vatanda\u015f\u0131n can ve mal g\u00fcvenli\u011fini sa\u011flama konusunda gereken yap\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f, yap\u0131labilenler yeterli olamam\u0131\u015f.
\nHesaps\u0131zca bor\u00e7lanarak i\u00e7 talebi art\u0131rmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr, fakat s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fildir ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmas\u0131 \u00f6nlenemez. B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k rakamlar\u0131 bu \u00e7ok tehlikeli yola girdi\u011fimize i\u015faret ediyor. Sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc artmadan, bor\u00e7la finanse edilen harcama art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelece\u011fin gelirlerinin \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nceden harcanmas\u0131d\u0131r ve ileride ya\u015fanacak y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 daralmalar\u0131n habercisidir. \u015euursuzluktur, tutarl\u0131 de\u011fildir; a\u011fustos b\u00f6ce\u011fini oynamak ve medeniyetten uzakla\u015fmakt\u0131r. Aman beklentiler bozulmas\u0131n diye barda\u011fa dolu taraf\u0131ndan bakmak ve ger\u00e7ek d\u0131\u015f\u0131 varsay\u0131mlarla kitleleri y\u00f6nlendirmek bu yanl\u0131\u015fta \u0131srarl\u0131 olundu\u011fu anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131mla gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 ne rekabet ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n daha da bozulmas\u0131, tasarruf a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6nlenemez.<\/p>

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