{"id":13711,"date":"2012-04-03T08:50:26","date_gmt":"2012-04-03T06:50:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13711"},"modified":"2012-04-03T08:50:26","modified_gmt":"2012-04-03T06:50:26","slug":"ab-global-ekonominin-kamburu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ab-global-ekonominin-kamburu\/","title":{"rendered":"AB: Global ekonominin kamburu"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\" align=\"center\"><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Borsalar\u0131 ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019den gelen veriler destekliyor. AB taraf\u0131nda ise durum hala \u00e7ok vahim, d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan imalat verilerinde de bunu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Almanya dahil PMI imalat verilerinde 50\u2019nin alt\u0131nda rakamlar a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Euro b\u00f6lgesi PMI imalat endeksi ise 47,7 ile yine 50\u2019nin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise mart ay\u0131nda %10,7\u2019den %10,8\u2019e \u00e7\u0131karak yeni bir zirve yapt\u0131. \u00d6zetle AB taraf\u0131nda ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler hala \u00e7ok zay\u0131f, buna kar\u015f\u0131n AB borsalar\u0131n\u0131 da yukar\u0131ya ta\u015f\u0131yan veriler ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019den geldi. ABD\u2019de ISM endeksinin mart ay\u0131nda 52,4\u2019ten 53,4\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de ise resmi imalar verisinin 53\u2019e y\u00fckseldi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu \u00c7in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde h\u0131zl\u0131 yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131 beklentilerini t\u00f6rp\u00fclerken, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 PBoC\u2019n\u0131n parasal gev\u015feme yapmas\u0131 i\u00e7in olu\u015fan bask\u0131lar\u0131 da hafifletti. \u00d6zetle \u00c7in\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi konusunda endi\u015feleri abartmak i\u00e7in bir neden yok ama \u00c7in\u2019den parasal geni\u015fleme beklemek i\u00e7in de hen\u00fcz erken.<\/span><\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4228994919\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">B\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyrediyor<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\"><span style=\"font-size: small\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. %8,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile T\u00fcrkiye 2011\u2019de \u00c7in\u2019den sonra en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ikinci \u00fclke. B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fcksek rakamlarda seyretmesi her zaman olumlu olmayabiliyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcme sa\u011flan\u0131rken ba\u015fka makroekonomik g\u00f6stergelerde bozulma ya\u015fan\u0131yorsa bu durum s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmaktan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l sa\u011flanan bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye cari a\u00e7\u0131k olarak d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu sene cari a\u00e7\u0131kla m\u00fccadele daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir yap\u0131ya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc getirecektir. Bu da b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. A\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k verileri yumu\u015fak ini\u015f senaryosunu teyit eder nitelikte. Bu da yurti\u00e7i piyasalar\u0131 destekleyen en \u00f6nemli etken. Bu verilerin yan\u0131nda takip ediyor oldu\u011fumuz \u00f6nemli bir veri de bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan enflasyon rakamlar\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanacak rakamlarda man\u015fetlerden ziyade \u00e7ekirdek verilere odaklan\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7ekirdek verilerde bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanacak olursa TCMB ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde yeniden parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya gidebilir. Fakat enflasyonda bu aydan ziyade may\u0131s ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak nisan enflasyonuna odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Do\u011falgaz, benzin ve elektrik zamlar\u0131n\u0131n etkilerini o rakamlarda g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.\u00a0 Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir geri \u00e7ekilme olmazsa ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde yeni zamlar\u0131n gelmesi de ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gibi duruyor. Bu nedenle uzun s\u00fcredir dile getirdi\u011fimiz gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve enflasyon gibi iki hayati verisinin kaderi petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. Brent petrol\u00fcn fiyat\u0131 120 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na kal\u0131\u015f\u0131 olarak inmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece bu bacak T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in s\u00fcrekli olarak risk olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u0130MKB 100 teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u0130MKB 100 endeksi d\u00fcn kritik olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz 63,000 direncinde kapan\u0131\u015f yapt\u0131. Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015fta bu seviyenin bir miktar \u00fczerinde g\u00fcne ba\u015flanabilir. G\u00fcn i\u00e7inde bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde tutunulup tutunulamayaca\u011f\u0131 takip edilmelidir. E\u011fer endeks bug\u00fcn bu seviyenin \u00fczerinde tutunabilir ise 64,400 ve ard\u0131ndan 67,000 hedefli yeni bir y\u00fckseli\u015f denemesi gelebilir. Aksi halde burada olu\u015facak bir bo\u011fa tuza\u011f\u0131 beraberinde sert sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 getirebilir. Bu nedenle 63,000 \u00fczerinde a\u00e7\u0131lacak yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar i\u00e7in 62,500\/62,750 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda mutlaka bir stop loss seviyesi belirlenmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri;font-size: small\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Telefon: (0212) 286 30 00<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Borsalar\u0131 ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019den gelen veriler destekliyor. AB taraf\u0131nda ise durum hala \u00e7ok vahim, d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan imalat verilerinde de bunu g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Almanya dahil PMI imalat&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13711"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13711\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}