{"id":13699,"date":"2012-04-03T08:35:32","date_gmt":"2012-04-03T06:35:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13699"},"modified":"2012-04-03T08:35:52","modified_gmt":"2012-04-03T06:35:52","slug":"buyume-artik-daha-az-surdurulemez","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyume-artik-daha-az-surdurulemez\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcme: Art\u0131k, &#8216;Daha Az S\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bir ara korkuldu\u011fu gibi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z pat diye s\u0131f\u0131ra do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015fmeyecek. %3-4 oran\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha ula\u015f\u0131labilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-206729483\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Nihayet 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerini \u00f6\u011frendik. 2011\u2019de sa\u011flanan y\u00fczde 8,5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile ekonomimiz \u00fcst \u00fcste iki y\u0131l \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f oldu. 1960-2011 d\u00f6nemindeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z olan y\u00fczde 4,5 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 2011 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<br \/>\n\u0130ktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ho\u015fnut k\u0131lan, herhangi bir y\u0131lda sa\u011flanan y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fil, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131. Ne yaz\u0131k ki 2010-2011\u2019deki y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Hemen akla iki neden geliyor: Birincisi, her iki y\u0131lda da ama \u00f6zellikle 2011\u2019de \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdik ve bu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131 ile finanse ettik. Hi\u00e7bir \u00fclke bu kadar y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcremez; zira kimse ona s\u00fcrekli olarak o kadar bor\u00e7 vermez.<br \/>\n\u0130kinci neden de yaz\u0131n\u0131n giri\u015finde verdi\u011fim ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131m\u0131z. Ge\u00e7mi\u015fte de y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Mesela 2004-2005 d\u00f6nemindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme neredeyse 2010-2011\u2019deki ile t\u0131pat\u0131p ayn\u0131. Oysa sonra o y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme kal\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131. \u00dcstelik 2004-2005\u2019teki (milli gelire oranla) cari a\u00e7\u0131k ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fc ve a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak uzun vadeli d\u00f6viz borcuyla finanse ediliyordu. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle kal\u0131c\u0131 olmayan 2004-2005 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeydi.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Likidite bollu\u011fu\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nElbette her \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez durum\u2019 bir s\u00fcre s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir. Zaten 2012\u2019ye ili\u015fkin as\u0131l tart\u0131\u015fma konusu da bu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemezli\u011fin daha ne kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilece\u011fi. Y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin temel nedeninin k\u00fcresel finansal piyasalardaki bol likidite oldu\u011funu biliyoruz. Bunu yaratan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131, en az\u0131ndan 2014\u2019e kadar bu durumda bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Mevcut likiditeye, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 son d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde 1 trilyon euro daha ekledi. Son g\u00fcnlerde hava biraz bozulmu\u015f olsa da s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim geli\u015fmeler 2011\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla daha iyimser bir hava yaratt\u0131. Bu, k\u00fcresel risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131nda bir miktar toparlanma anlam\u0131na geliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da bizim s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez durumun, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan bor\u00e7lanma olana\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla b\u0131\u00e7akla kesilir gibi sona ermesi ihtimali azal\u0131yor. Art\u0131k temel senaryo, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez durumun giderek \u2018daha az s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez\u2019 bir duruma evrilmesi. Yani, bir ara korkuldu\u011fu gibi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z pat diye s\u0131f\u0131ra do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015fmeyecek. Birka\u00e7 \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla, y\u00fczde 3-4 oran\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha ula\u015f\u0131labilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.radikal.com.tr\/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalYazar&amp;ArticleID=1083741&amp;Yazar=FATIH-OZATAY&amp;CategoryID=101\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bir ara korkuldu\u011fu gibi, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z pat diye s\u0131f\u0131ra do\u011fru d\u00fc\u015fmeyecek. %3-4 oran\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme daha ula\u015f\u0131labilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Nihayet 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13699","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13699"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13699\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13699"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13699"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13699"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}