{"id":13550,"date":"2012-03-30T09:11:20","date_gmt":"2012-03-30T07:11:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13550"},"modified":"2012-03-30T09:11:20","modified_gmt":"2012-03-30T07:11:20","slug":"dis-ticaret-acigi-surpriz-yapti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dis-ticaret-acigi-surpriz-yapti\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz yapt\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\" align=\"center\"><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">G\u00fcn\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli haberi Avrupa taraf\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomi ve maliye bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak. Liderler krizle m\u00fccadelede kullan\u0131lacak kurtarma fonunun gelece\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fecekler. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Merkel ge\u00e7ici kurtarma fonu (EFSF) ile daimi kurtarma fonunun (ESM) birle\u015ftirilmesine ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bug\u00fcn bu konunun netle\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Fonun kapasitesinin ise 700 milyar Euro civar\u0131nda olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Piyasa da ise 1 trilyon civar\u0131ndaki rakamlar\u0131 da telaffuz edenler var. Bug\u00fcn bu konu netle\u015fir ve fonun kapasitesi de asgari 700 milyar euroyu bulursa AB krizinde \u00f6nemli bir d\u00f6neme\u00e7 a\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olur. Anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 durumunda ise d\u00fcn AB\u2019de \u0130talya Milano ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere baz\u0131 borsalarda g\u00f6r\u00fclen panik havas\u0131 AB\u2019nin geneline yay\u0131labilir. Her ne kadar ge\u00e7mi\u015f tecr\u00fcbelerimiz AB\u2019nin karar s\u00fcrecinde her t\u00fcrl\u00fc olas\u0131l\u0131\u011fa haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6sterse de, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc toplant\u0131dan bir uzla\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na daha y\u00fcksek olas\u0131l\u0131k veriyoruz. <\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4053565575\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u0130\u00e7eride d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi \u00f6nemli<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret verisi \u0130MKB, faiz ve kur \u00fczerinde sert etkiler olu\u015fturabilir. 6,52 milyar dolar\u0131 civar\u0131nda bir d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyordu. A\u00e7\u0131klanan rakam 5,94 milyar dolar oldu. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde bu rakam 7,46 milyar dolard\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda azal\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam ediyor olmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a olumlu bir g\u00f6sterge. \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran\u2019la ba\u015flayacak P5+1 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri de b\u00f6lgede sular\u0131n bir nebze olsun durulmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak olursa petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ani ve sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu durum T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin emsallerine g\u00f6re pozitif ayr\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na katk\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnde ya\u015fanan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn de bu ba\u011flamda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in olumlu oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u0130MKB\u2019nin son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcnd\u00fcr d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131 diren\u00e7li olmas\u0131n\u0131n arkas\u0131ndaki dinamiklerden biri de bu. Fakat Brent petrolde fiyatlar 120 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak inmedi\u011fi s\u00fcrece, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in pozitif etkinin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmaya devam edece\u011fi kanaatindeyiz. \u00d6zetle bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret rakam\u0131 \u0130MKB\u2019ye pozitif etkisi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. G\u00fcn\u00fcn geri kalan\u0131nda yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan moral bozacak bir haber ya da veri gelmezse \u0130MKB bu pozitif havay\u0131 koruyabilir. \u00a0Bug\u00fcn g\u00fcn\u00fcn geri kalan\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanacak di\u011fer veriler ise \u015f\u00f6yle:\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">12:00 \u2013 AB Mart Ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE (Y\/Y)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">15:30 \u2013 ABD \u015eubat Ay\u0131 Ki\u015fisel Gelirler ve Harcamalar\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">16:55 \u2013 ABD Mart Ay\u0131 Michigan \u00dcni. T\u00fck. G\u00fcv. Endeksi \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u0130MKB 100 teknik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm:<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">D\u00fcn y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayan y\u00fckselen trendin bulundu\u011fu 61,500\u2019\u00fc test eden endekste bug\u00fcn de bu trendin ge\u00e7ti\u011fi 61,700 seviyesi takip edilecek. Endeks, bu seviyenin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 her an sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 ba\u015fka bir nedene gerek kalmadan artabilir. Bu nedenle endeks bu seviyenin alt\u0131na g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde yeniden sarkacak olursa yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyonlar\u0131n riski artacakt\u0131r. Endeks a\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 61,700 \u00fczerinde tutunabilecek olursa yeniden 62,400 test edilecektir. 62,400 \u00fczerinde ise ana diren\u00e7 seviyesi olarak kabul etti\u011fimiz 63,000 seviyesini takip edece\u011fiz. Bug\u00fcn 61,700 alt\u0131na yeniden sark\u0131lacak olursa 60,400 ve ard\u0131ndan 59,800 seviyeleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelecektir. Bu nedenle bizler 61,700 yani sene ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayan trendin bulundu\u011fu seviyenin alt\u0131nda temkinli olmak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri;font-size: small\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Telefon: (0212) 286 30 00<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>G\u00fcn\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli haberi Avrupa taraf\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek olan Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomi ve maliye bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131 olacak. Liderler krizle m\u00fccadelede kullan\u0131lacak kurtarma fonunun gelece\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fecekler. Hafta&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}