Ge\u00e7en hafta de\u011findim. \u00d6zellikle geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin k\u00fcresel krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde \u00e7abuk t\u0131knefes olmas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye \u00e7abalayan \u00fclkelerin enflasyon tehdidi alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 iktisat politikas\u0131 yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de para politikas\u0131 otoritelerini\u00a0 bir yol ayr\u0131m\u0131na getirdi. Merkez Bankalar\u0131 ya gev\u015fek para-d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131nda \u0131srar edecek ve t\u0131knefes olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yolunu a\u00e7acak ya da enflasyon tehdidini ciddiye al\u0131p parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve y\u00fckselen faiz yoluyla fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki harcama bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltacak.
\nBa\u015fka bir deyi\u015fle, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc ko\u015fullarda, Merkez Bankalar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile enflasyon aras\u0131nda bir \u00f6ncelik belirlemek zorunda kal\u0131yorlar. Tabii benimsenen\u00a0 \u00f6nceli\u011fe g\u00f6re de d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 belli y\u00f6nlere hareket ediyor. K\u00fcreselle\u015fme s\u00fcrecinde b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle\u00a0 serbestle\u015ftirilmi\u015f olan sermaye hareketleri Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131klar\u0131 faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na yans\u0131t\u0131yor\u00a0 ya da, tersine, d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131na yapt\u0131klar\u0131 m\u00fcdahalelerin\u00a0 faiz oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde etkili olmas\u0131 sonucunu do\u011furuyor. Yani sermaye giri\u015f-\u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemler almad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece para otoritesi faiz ve d\u00f6viz kurunu bir arada belirleyemiyor, sermaye hareketi serbest olunca da bunlardan birisi \u00fczerinde ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir karar\u0131n \u00f6tekini de etkilemesinden ka\u00e7am\u0131yor.
\nTCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdem Ba\u015f\u00e7\u0131’n\u0131n\u00a0 “imkans\u0131zl\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7geni” olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 hareket\u00a0 alan\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde\u00a0 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor\u00a0 ve\u00a0 onlar\u0131\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon\u00a0 (d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz-y\u00fcksek faiz) aras\u0131nda bir se\u00e7im yapmaya, bir\u00a0 \u00f6ncelik belirlemeye zorluyor.
\n*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *
\nBu ” imkans\u0131zl\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7geni ” meselesi epeydir g\u00fcndemde de\u011fildi. Bu s\u0131ralarda soruna olan ilgi birden artt\u0131.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7en hafta ortas\u0131ndan bu yana da\u00a0 konuyla ilgili tart\u0131\u015fma hareketlendi. Bu ani ilginin bir\u00a0 nedeni ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme-enflasyon ikilisi aras\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n daha g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr hale gelmi\u015f olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Bir ba\u015fka neden de bu s\u0131ralarda\u00a0 kimi Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 faiz oran\u0131 ile ilgili yeni kararlar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 kamuoyuna iletebilecekleri baz\u0131 yeni imkanlar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yd\u0131.\u00a0 S\u00f6z konusu\u00a0 bankalar\u0131n alacaklar\u0131 yeni faiz karar\u0131yla \u00f6nceliklerinin ne oldu\u011funa ili\u015fkin somut sinyal verecekleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Yani ya gev\u015fek para- d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz devam edecekti\u00a0 veya\u00a0 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma-y\u00fckselen faiz devreye girecekti.
\nFaiz karar\u0131yla ilgili ilk\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klama\u00a0 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u00a0 Bernanke’den\u00a0 geldi.\u00a0 Bernanke Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc konu\u015ftu, biraz da dolayl\u0131 bir ifadeyle, istihdam \u00fczerinden, ABD ekonomisi i\u00e7in \u00f6nceli\u011fin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye\u00a0 verildi\u011fini\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.
\nFED’in hemen arkas\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 benzer bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131. Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonunda TCMB’nin\u00a0 de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki\u00a0 \u00f6nceli\u011fi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131.
\nSonu\u00e7ta,\u00a0 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan temel para otoritesi olan FED ile T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin para otoritesi olan TCMB’nin\u00a0 imkans\u0131zl\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7genindeki\u00a0\u00a0 s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye verilen \u00f6ncelikle a\u015fmaya karar verdiler. Tabii\u00a0 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda bu karar\u0131n dikte edece\u011fi y\u00f6nde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak hareketlere de\u00a0 raz\u0131 olduklar\u0131n\u0131\u00a0 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f oldular.
\n*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *
\nTemel tercihlerin yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n Merkez Bankalar\u0131, uygun g\u00f6rd\u00fckleri durumlarda, piyasalara tekil ve se\u00e7ici m\u00fcdahaleler yapabilirler.\u00a0 \u00d6zellikle TCMB’nin,\u00a0 y\u00fcr\u00fctmekte oldu\u011fu ortodoks olmayan para politikas\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde,\u00a0 baz\u0131 ek m\u00fcdahaleler yapabilece\u011fi ve bunun da \u00f6rne\u011fin d\u00f6viz kurunun olas\u0131 hareketlerini etkileyebilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilir. Bu ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ileride somut olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcp, de\u011ferlendirebilece\u011fiz.
\nAyr\u0131nt\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde yap\u0131lan \u00f6ncelik tercihlerinin hem ABD hem de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan do\u011fru se\u00e7imler oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>