{"id":13409,"date":"2012-03-27T12:48:25","date_gmt":"2012-03-27T10:48:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13409"},"modified":"2012-03-27T12:48:34","modified_gmt":"2012-03-27T10:48:34","slug":"sp-turkiyenin-notunu-mu-artiracak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/sp-turkiyenin-notunu-mu-artiracak\/","title":{"rendered":"S&#038;P, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin Notunu mu Art\u0131racak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn kredi derecelendirme \u015firketi S&amp;P T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin notunu nas\u0131l art\u0131rabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bunun i\u00e7in ortaya s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iki geli\u015fme var. ihracat odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelinmesi ve daha kapsaml\u0131 bir sosyal g\u00fcvenlik reformu yap\u0131lmas\u0131. Aksi halde ise not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yok ama art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da yok. Reyting ayn\u0131 kalacak.<br \/>\nSosyal g\u00fcvenlik alan\u0131nda not art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilecek hangi reform haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan haberim yok. Ama \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 beklenen yeni te\u015fvik paketi pek\u00e2l\u00e2 ihracat odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f veya ithalat\u0131 ikame edici, d\u00f6viz tasarrufu sa\u011flay\u0131c\u0131, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131c\u0131 politikalar demeti olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilir. B\u00f6yle bir de\u011ferlendirmenin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda S&amp;P&#8217;nin not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcnde herhangi bir engel kalmaz. Notu art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in de gerekli f\u0131rsat\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f olur.<br \/>\n<strong><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3224964738\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>CAR\u0130 A\u00c7IK D\u00dc\u015eER:\u00a0<\/strong>Birde T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin d\u0131\u015f kaynaklara a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131lgan olabilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor S&amp;P a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda. Ancak kurulu\u015fun yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 notta T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin yer alan tahminler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llarda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Kurum cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 milli gelirin y\u00fczdesi olarak 2011 i\u00e7in 10.06 tahmin ediyor. B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi de ge\u00e7en y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 8.4 bekliyor. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n bu y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 7.97&#8217;ye, gelecek y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 6.93&#8242; e, 2014&#8242; te y\u00fczde 6.09 &#8216; a ve 2015 &#8216; te y\u00fczde 5.76&#8217; ya inece\u011fi tahmini yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Giderek d\u00fc\u015fen bir cari a\u00e7\u0131k s\u00f6z konusu. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye nin k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131 da kademeli bir \u015fekilde ortadan kalkacak demektir.<br \/>\nReyting kurulu\u015funun raporunda yer alan ifadeler ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llara ili\u015fkin yap\u0131lan tahminler, sanki not art\u0131rmaya daha yak\u0131n durdu\u011fu \u015feklinde yorumlanabilir. &#8220;Ama belki de kendisini bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda hissetti\u011finden ve bu bask\u0131y\u0131 hafifletmek i\u00e7in de a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 yapm\u0131\u015f olabilir mi?&#8221; diye insan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeden edemiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>FED yeniden para paketini ortaya s\u00fcrd\u00fc<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131, &#8220;Helikopter Ben&#8221; lakab\u0131n\u0131 hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rcas\u0131na &#8220;Yeni bir parasal geni\u015fleme paketi yok&#8221; tavr\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcrede terk etti. Ben Bernanke d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 konu\u015fmada &#8220;\u0130stihdam\u0131n artmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni bir parasal gev\u015feme gerekli&#8221; dedi. Paran\u0131n ucunu g\u00f6sterdi. Bu s\u00f6zler \u00fczerine bozulmakta olan piyasalar d\u00fczeldi. Arz\u0131 bolla\u015facak para olarak ABD Dolar\u0131 de\u011fer kaybetti.<br \/>\nTabii dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda di\u011fer paralar de\u011fer kazand\u0131, TL de bunlar aras\u0131nda yerini ald\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Bernanke&#8217; nin bu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 kuru dizginlemek isteyen ve bu nedenle faizi art\u0131ran TCMB &#8216; nin i\u015fini kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Amerika&#8217;da bolla\u015facak paran\u0131n d\u00fcnyada dola\u015f\u0131ma \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 ve geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalarda varl\u0131k de\u011ferlerini art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n beklenmesi d\u00fcnk\u00fc piyasa d\u00fczelmesinin en \u00f6nemli nedeni. Yoksa FED&#8217; in ikinci parasal geni\u015flemesi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n haziran ay\u0131nda bitti. Aradan bir y\u0131l ge\u00e7ti. Bu beklenti bitmedi. Ne piyasalar istemekten b\u0131kt\u0131, ne FED kestirip atmaktan vazge\u00e7ebildi. Galiba her iki taraf da i\u015fine geldik\u00e7e \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal gev\u015femeyi g\u00fcndeme getiriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131n\u0131n devam\u0131 i\u00e7in <strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloomberght.com\/ht-yazarlar\/abdurrahman-yildirim\/1109841-s-p-turkiyenin-notunu-mu-artiracak\" target=\"_blank\" data-wpel-link=\"external\" rel=\"nofollow external noopener\">TIKLAYINIZ.<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn kredi derecelendirme \u015firketi S&amp;P T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin notunu nas\u0131l art\u0131rabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bunun i\u00e7in ortaya s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc iki geli\u015fme var. ihracat odakl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye y\u00f6nelinmesi ve daha kapsaml\u0131 bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":994,"featured_media":12631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/994"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13409"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13409\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}