\u0130ktisat politikas\u0131\u00a0 uygulamalar\u0131\u00a0 bir yol ayr\u0131m\u0131na geliyor gibi. Politika tercihindeki se\u00e7i\u015flerin dar ve \u00e7eli\u015fik bir alana s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 iktisat politikalar\u0131ndan sorumlu olanlar\u0131 zorlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0\u00a0 Baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde somut olarak g\u00fcndeme olan bu\u00a0 sorun\u00a0 bizi de zorlamaya aday
\nSorun \u015fu.\u00a0 Son\u00a0 s\u0131ralarda ekonomi tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131nda \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kan iki mesele var. Bunlardan birisi b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015fl\u0131yor olmas\u0131. \u0130kincisi de\u00a0 enflasyon bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ya da bu t\u00fcr bask\u0131lar\u0131n kap\u0131da olmas\u0131.\u00a0 Sorun bu ikisinin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in gereken iktisat politikalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00e7eli\u015fik olmas\u0131nda.\u00a0 Bu \u00e7eli\u015fki politika se\u00e7i\u015flerinde \u00f6ncelik meselesini g\u00fcndeme getiriyor. Yol ayr\u0131m\u0131 da burada olu\u015fuyor.
\n*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *
\nBu sorunlara ili\u015fkin baz\u0131 e\u011filimler bizde de var. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 muhtemel politika \u00e7eli\u015fmesi\u00a0 ve se\u00e7me meselesi biz de konu\u015fulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0 Ger\u00e7ekten de\u00a0 hem b\u00fcy\u00fcme hem de enflasyon konusunda sorun \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fine i\u015faret eden baz\u0131 ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.\u00a0 B\u00fcy\u00fcme temposunun bizde de yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k genel olarak kabul ediliyor.Yani b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u011flam\u0131nda d\u00fcnyadan kopuk de\u011filiz. G\u00fcndemimizde bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme meselesi var.
\nEnflasyon konusu ise biraz daha kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k. \u015eu s\u0131ralarda y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fcksek. Neredeyse d\u00fcnya rekoru k\u0131racak haldeyiz. Ama enflasyondan sorumlu olan otorite (TCMB) y\u0131l\u0131n g\u00f6rece\u00a0 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir enflasyon oran\u0131 ile tamamlayaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131\u00a0 s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Yani enflasyon \u015fu anda sorunmu\u015f gibi alg\u0131lanm\u0131yor. Ama Merkez Bankas\u0131 yine de enflasyon bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131racak geli\u015fmelere kar\u015f\u0131 duyarl\u0131. D\u00f6viz\u00a0 kurunun y\u00fckselmesi, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesi bu t\u00fcr geli\u015fmelerden birisi.\u00a0 Merkez kur y\u00fckselmelerinin fiyatlara ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan rahats\u0131z. Dolay\u0131s\u0131\u00a0 ile, daha \u00f6nce yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi,\u00a0 kur y\u00fckselmelerini dizginlemeyi hedefleyen baz\u0131 giri\u015fimler yapabilece\u011fi beklentisi var.
\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi ile d\u00f6viz kuru-enflasyon ge\u00e7irgenli\u011fi meselesi\u00a0 zaten kendi i\u00e7lerinde yo\u011fun olarak tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lan konular. Bu ikisi kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geldi\u011finde hem sorunun \u00e7ap\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyor hem de tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n yo\u011funlu\u011fu art\u0131yor.
\n*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *
\nB\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunun kendi i\u00e7inde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fma malum. Bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k genel kabul g\u00f6ren bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f haline geldi. \u015eimdi\u00a0 yava\u015flaman\u0131n hangi dozda olaca\u011f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli, sert bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunanlar var. Bunun tersine yava\u015flaman\u0131n yumu\u015fak olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6renler de mevcut. \u015e\u00f6yle veya b\u00f6yle 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme meselesinin sorunlu olaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.
\nD\u00f6viz kuru-enflasyon\u00a0 meselesi biraz daha kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k.\u00a0 Aktif para politikas\u0131 uygulayan Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131n\u0131n de\u011feri konusunda yapabilecekleri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131. Serbest sermaye hareketi ortam\u0131nda aktif para politikas\u0131ndan\u00a0 (faiz belirleme i\u015flevi)\u00a0 vazge\u00e7medi\u011fi\u00a0 s\u00fcrece\u00a0 Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n alenen bir kur hedeflemesi s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil. Yani, enflasyonu dizginlemeyi hedefleyen bir Merkez Bankas\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurunun\u00a0 savunulmas\u0131 \u00fczerine in\u015fa edemiyor.
\nAma\u00a0 d\u00f6viz kurunun y\u00fckselmesi (TL’nin de\u011fer kaybetmesi) de enflasyonu k\u0131\u015fk\u0131rtt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi d\u0131\u015f dengedeki bozulma (cari a\u00e7\u0131k) boyutunu da b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131 bunlar\u0131n ikisine de raz\u0131 de\u011fil. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla dolayl\u0131 yollardan, \u00f6rt\u00fck olarak kur \u00fczerinde etkili olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>