{"id":13101,"date":"2012-03-20T10:04:26","date_gmt":"2012-03-20T08:04:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=13101"},"modified":"2012-03-20T10:04:26","modified_gmt":"2012-03-20T08:04:26","slug":"kur-petrol-ve-abd-uzun-vadelileri-alarm-veriyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kur-petrol-ve-abd-uzun-vadelileri-alarm-veriyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Kur, petrol ve ABD uzun vadelileri alarm veriyor"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\" align=\"center\"><strong><\/strong><\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">D\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir veri ya da haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoktu. Daha \u00e7ok teknik dinamiklerin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn oldu. \u0130MKB g\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasalardan pozitif ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131. G\u00fcn sonuna do\u011fru bir miktar sat\u0131\u015f gelse de bu sat\u0131\u015flar \u0130MKB\u2019nin g\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131da kapatmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyemedi. Bug\u00fcn ise g\u00fcndemde \u00f6nemli veriler var. ABD\u2019den gelecek a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da listeledi\u011fimiz bu veriler \u00f6\u011fleden sonraki hareketlerde etkili olabilir. \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify\">\n<li>\n<h4><span style=\"font-size: small\">\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">14:30 \u2013 ABD \u015eubat Ay\u0131 Konut Ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7lar\u0131 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<h4><span style=\"font-size: small\">\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">14:30 \u2013 ABD \u015eubat Ay\u0131 \u0130n\u015faat \u0130zinleri \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<h4><span style=\"font-size: small\">\u00b7<\/span>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">18:45 \u2013 ABD FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke Konu\u015fma Yapacak\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Kurlar ve ABD faizlerine dikkat<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">D\u00fcn \u0130MKB\u2019de olumlu hava devam etmesine kar\u015f\u0131n kurlardaki yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket tedirgin etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00f6viz sepeti d\u00fcnk\u00fc hareketler sonras\u0131nda 2,10 civar\u0131na dayand\u0131. Dolar\/TL kuru 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck hareketli ortalaman\u0131n bulundu\u011fu 1,8175 civar\u0131n\u0131 test etmeye \u00e7ok yak\u0131n. Bu seviye a\u015f\u0131lacak olursa kurda 1,85 hareketi ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r ki, bu da \u0130MKB\u2019yi ciddi bi\u00e7imde bask\u0131 alt\u0131na alacakt\u0131r. Bu noktadan sonra g\u00f6zlerin bir s\u00fcre kurlara odaklanmas\u0131nda fayda oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. TL \u00fczerindeki bu bask\u0131 devam edecek olursa TCMB m\u00fcdahaleleri yeniden g\u00fcndeme gelebilir. TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmesini engellemek i\u00e7in TL arz\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131labilir, gecelik fonlama maliyetleri yeniden y\u00fckseltilebilir. Bunlar\u0131n hepsi \u0130MKB \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacak etkenler. Bu nedenle kurlar yak\u0131ndan takip edilmeli. Bunun yan\u0131nda dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131nda etki oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz ABD uzun vadeli tahvillerin faizleri de izlenmesi gereken \u00f6nemli bir g\u00f6sterge. ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131klar\u0131nda faizler son 7 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Faizlerdeki bu art\u0131\u015f devam edecek olursa TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kayb\u0131 olas\u0131 bir TCMB m\u00fcdahalesine ra\u011fmen devam edebilir. Bu nedenle bu oranlar\u0131 izlemekte fayda var. <\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 riski fiyatl\u0131yor<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki geli\u015fmelere daha duyarl\u0131 hale geldi ve \u0130ran konusundaki endi\u015felerin petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc engelledi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. K\u00fcresel bankac\u0131l\u0131k i\u015flemlerini idare eden Swift adl\u0131 kurulu\u015fun \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 sitemin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na atmas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 sert bir \u015fekilde vuracakt\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6zellikle \u0130srail taraf\u0131ndan olmak \u00fczere \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bir m\u00fcdahalede bulunulaca\u011f\u0131 yorumlar\u0131 da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seyretmesinde etkili. Petrol ihra\u00e7 eden \u00fclkeler ya da stratejik rezerv bar\u0131nd\u0131ran \u00fclkelerden petrol fiyatlar\u0131na bir m\u00fcdahale gelmez ise Brent petrol 127 dolardaki kritik direncini a\u015fabilir. Bu da kurlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye ve \u0130MKB i\u00e7in ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck risk olacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fimiz ABD 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizleri, Dolar\/TL kuru ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir gerileme i\u015fareti almad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z s\u00fcrece \u0130MKB\u2019ye temkinli yakla\u015fmak gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n teknik g\u00f6stergelerde bir bozulma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc pozisyon alma konusunda da aceleci olunmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi kanaatindeyiz.\u00a0\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri;font-size: small\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Telefon: (0212) 286 30 00<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/h4>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcn \u00f6nemli bir veri ya da haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 yoktu. Daha \u00e7ok teknik dinamiklerin \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir g\u00fcn oldu. \u0130MKB g\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13101","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13101","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13101"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13101\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13101"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13101"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13101"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}