{"id":12920,"date":"2012-03-15T14:35:45","date_gmt":"2012-03-15T12:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12920"},"modified":"2012-03-15T14:55:06","modified_gmt":"2012-03-15T12:55:06","slug":"agustosbocegi-olmadan-bu-devirde-harcayacaksin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/agustosbocegi-olmadan-bu-devirde-harcayacaksin\/","title":{"rendered":"A\u011fustosb\u00f6ce\u011fi Olmadan Bu Devirde Harcayacaks\u0131n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusa sahip, t\u00fcketim a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7indeki bir toplum, siyasi ve ekonomik istikrar i\u00e7inde gelece\u011fe g\u00fcvenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, gelirinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, bor\u00e7lanabildi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketmeyecek, yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmayacak da ne zaman yapacak. Yeter ki bor\u00e7lanma ile \u00f6deme g\u00fcc\u00fc aras\u0131ndaki dengeyi koparmayal\u0131m<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3525211251\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>2001 krizi sonras\u0131 iyi bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalad\u0131k. Milli gelir 200 milyardan 800 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<br \/>\n\u25a0 \u0130\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, yeniden tek haneli rakamlara indi. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m 1990&#8217;l\u0131 y\u0131llardan sonra ilk kez y\u00fczde 50&#8217;yi buldu.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir 2 bin 500 dolar civar\u0131ndan 10 bin dolara y\u00fckseldi.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Enflasyon tek haneli rakamlara indi, beraberinde faizler d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve vadeler uzad\u0131.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Kamu bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131 yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalmayla y\u00fczde 79&#8217;dan y\u00fczde 39&#8217;a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bankalar kredi a\u00e7maya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130lk kez krediler mevduat\u0131 ge\u00e7ti. Hanehalk\u0131 da bor\u00e7lanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Hanehalk\u0131 bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n gelirlerine oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 45&#8217;i buldu.<br \/>\n\u25a0 Hem t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni hem de reel kesim g\u00fcveni artt\u0131. Yani insanlar gelece\u011fe daha g\u00fcvenli bakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><strong>A\u00c7IK B\u00dcY\u00dcYOR, TASARRUF D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcYOR:<\/strong>\u00a0Madalyonun \u00f6teki y\u00fcz\u00fcnde ise cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n milli gelire oran\u0131n\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte hi\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclemeyecek oranlara y\u00fckselmesi yer al\u0131yor. Milli gelirin y\u00fczde 10&#8217;una kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k veren ekonomilerinden biri haline geldi.<br \/>\nBir de tasarruf oran\u0131 dramatik bir \u015fekilde gerileyerek y\u00fczde 20&#8217;ler d\u00fczeyinden milli gelirin y\u00fczde 12&#8217;sine kadar indi. Bu d\u00fczey ile T\u00fcrkiye d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en az tasarruf yapan \u00fclkelerinden biri gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Tasarruflar son 10 y\u0131lda giderek azal\u0131yor. En son 1999&#8217;da y\u00fczde 20&#8217;lerdeydik. Sonra 2001 krizi ile ard\u0131ndan 2008 krizi ile a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler h\u0131zland\u0131.<br \/>\nEkonomide sa\u011flanan bunca pozitif geli\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k neden cari a\u00e7\u0131k verdi\u011fimizi biliyoruz. Yap\u0131sal bir sorun ve b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fck\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fcreten bir ekonomiyiz. Ama ya tasarruf oranlar\u0131na ne oluyor? \u00c7o\u011fu \u015fey iyi giderken tasarruflar niye k\u00f6t\u00fc gidiyor?<\/p>\n<p><strong>TASARRUF NE ZAMAN ED\u0130L\u0130R:\u00a0<\/strong>Asl\u0131nda bunda bir \u00e7eli\u015fki yok. Tasarruflar\u0131n azalmas\u0131 belki tek ba\u015f\u0131na bir olumsuzluk ama asl\u0131nda iyiye gidi\u015fin bir sonucu olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Gelece\u011fe g\u00fcvenmenin, buna ba\u011fl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m yapman\u0131n, t\u00fcketmenin, harcaman\u0131n sonucunda genel tasarruf d\u00fczeyi geriliyor. Harcamalara veya yat\u0131r\u0131mlara, konut ve emlak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 dahil. \u0130nsan ne zaman tasarruf eder, gelece\u011fe g\u00fcvendi\u011finde mi yoksa g\u00fcvenmedi\u011finde mi? Elbette g\u00fcvenmedi\u011finde.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DI\u015e BOR\u00c7 CAZ\u0130P:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00dcstelik d\u00fcnyada para bollu\u011fu ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Faizler veya bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri tarihi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelere inmi\u015f. Bu durum, d\u00fcnyadan bor\u00e7lanmay\u0131 cazip k\u0131l\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bu. Para bol, faiz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ama ekonomiler hen\u00fcz normal canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na kavu\u015famam\u0131\u015f. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 banka ve \u00fclke bor\u00e7 krizlerini, T\u00fcrkiye ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f ve yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmi\u015f. K\u00fcresel krizlerden etkilenme bu nedenle az. Kayna\u011f\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan getiren yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yap\u0131yor, \u00fcretiyor veya harc\u0131yor. \u0130\u00e7eriden kaynak bulan da ayn\u0131 \u015feyi yap\u0131yor. Burada \u00f6nemli olan kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 kayna\u011f\u0131n hakk\u0131n\u0131 verecek gelir elde etmek. Bu da ancak yat\u0131r\u0131m, \u00fcretim ve t\u00fcketimle m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bunu yapt\u0131ktan ve dengesini bozmad\u0131ktan sonra sorun yok. Gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusa sahip ve t\u00fcketim a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7indeki bir toplum bu d\u00f6nemde harcamayacak da, ne zaman harcayacak. Bulmu\u015f ucuz kaynaklar\u0131, ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131r m\u0131 hi\u00e7.<\/p>\n<p><strong>DI\u015eARISI K\u00d6T\u00dc, B\u0130Z \u0130Y\u0130Y\u0130Z:<\/strong>\u00a0Yeter ki d\u00fcnyada kaynaklar azalmas\u0131n veya maliyetleri y\u00fckselmesin. D\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kaynak bulur, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 finanse ederiz. Bu durumda d\u0131\u015far\u0131n\u0131n iyice d\u00fczelmesi, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin dengelerini bozabilir. Kaynak maliyetini art\u0131rabilir, finansman imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131 daraltabilir ve ekonomiyi sert ini\u015fe zorlayabilir. Bu durumda tasarruflar artmaya ba\u015flar ama bunun istatistiksel iyile\u015fmenin \u00f6tesinde bir yarar\u0131 olmaz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SONU\u00c7:\u00a0<\/strong>&#8220;\u0130\u015f bilenin, a\u015f yiyenin.&#8221;T\u00fcrk atas\u00f6z\u00fc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfusa sahip, t\u00fcketim a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7indeki bir toplum, siyasi ve ekonomik istikrar i\u00e7inde gelece\u011fe g\u00fcvenin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, gelirinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131, bor\u00e7lanabildi\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemde t\u00fcketmeyecek, yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmayacak da&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":994,"featured_media":12631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/994"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12920"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12920\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}