Son yaz\u0131mdan bu yana iki \u00f6nemli veri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc ocak ay\u0131na ait sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi de\u011ferini ve ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6\u011frendik. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda ise yine ocak ay\u0131na \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu verileri de\u011ferlendirece\u011fim.
\n\u00d6nce cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile ba\u015fl\u0131yorum. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 iki boyutta ele alaca\u011f\u0131m. Birincisi, finansman gere\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakaca\u011f\u0131m. \u0130kincisi, hem b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n son d\u00f6nemdeki e\u011filimini anlamaya hem de cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n dinami\u011fini daha iyi belirlemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilecek enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 inceleyece\u011fim.
\nCari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve finansman\u0131
\nOcak ay\u0131nda 6 milyar dolar kadar cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdik. Bu de\u011fer 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ocak ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen a\u00e7\u0131k ile ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde. Ancak ayl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k verilerini son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n toplam\u0131 olarak al\u0131p de\u011ferlendirince, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla son aylarda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iyile\u015fme oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. 2011’in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nce cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor, son iki ayda ise (2011 Aral\u0131k ve 2012 Ocak) art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 eksi de\u011ferler al\u0131yor.
\nBu durumda, \u00f6ncelikle, cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmenin durdu\u011funu belirtmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Elbette “Gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lam\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 10’u kadar olan cari a\u00e7\u0131k daha ne kadar k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015febilir ki?” diye sorarsan\u0131z, hakl\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z. Ancak birka\u00e7 ayd\u0131r, son on iki ay\u0131n toplam a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n 77 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde kalmas\u0131, hi\u00e7 olmazsa daha \u00e7ok finansman ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131 diye sevindirmeli bizi.
\nFinansman taraf\u0131nda ise i\u015fler yolunda gitmiyor. 2010 ve 2011’deki y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k, yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fte ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131klardan farkl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde, a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak k\u0131sa vadeli sermaye giri\u015fleri ile finanse ediliyordu. Bu t\u00fcr finansman s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirlik a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcyd\u00fc. 2011’in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana, k\u0131sa ya da uzun ayr\u0131m\u0131 bir tarafa, toplam finansman cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamaktan \u00e7ok uzak bir noktada.
\nGrafik 1’de her ay itibariyle hem son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131n\u0131n (d\u00f6viz finansman ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n) hem de son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n net sermaye giri\u015flerinin toplam\u0131n\u0131n birlikte hareketleri g\u00f6steriliyor. Net finansman\u0131n, k\u00fcresel finansal piyasalardaki gerilimli d\u00f6nemlerde finansman ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n belirgin bi\u00e7imde alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne dikkat edin. Mesela 2008’in son aylar\u0131 ile 2009’un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde b\u00f6yle. Bir de 2011’in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren ayn\u0131 olgu ge\u00e7erli.
\nTemmuz ay\u0131ndan bu yana ‘normal’ yollarla finansman ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in geriye iki finansman bi\u00e7imi kal\u0131yor: Birincisi, ‘cepten yiyoruz’; d\u00f6viz rezervlerimizi azalt\u0131yoruz. \u0130kincisi, kayna\u011f\u0131 belirsiz d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri oluyor T\u00fcrkiye’ye. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle ‘net hata ve noksan’ kalemindeki art\u0131\u015fla finanse ediyoruz cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan do\u011fan finansman gereksinmemizi. Sadece \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemler itibariyle b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. Son iki ay\u0131n her biri i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 olgu ge\u00e7erli.
\nBir de finansman ihtiyac\u0131 ile finansman aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n (finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n) geli\u015fiminin grafi\u011fini veriyorum. Bu fark\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler, finansman gereksinmemizin net sermaye giri\u015fleri ile kar\u015f\u0131lanamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler. S\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne ne kadar \u00e7ok \u00e7\u0131k\u0131l\u0131yorsa finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 da o kadar art\u0131yor. Fark\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler ise finansman a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 \u00e7ekmedi\u011fimiz d\u00f6nemlere i\u015faret ediyor. Grafik 2’de aylar itibariyle s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k toplamlar\u0131n\u0131n (milyon dolar cinsinden) geli\u015fimi yer al\u0131yor. Gerilim d\u00f6nemlerindeki finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fimdi daha da belirgin.
\nBu finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrer mi? Yan\u0131t vermek zor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n bankalara ilki aral\u0131k ay\u0131 i\u00e7indeki, ikincisi de \u015fubat sonundaki bol kep\u00e7e \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7 verme operasyonunun Avrupa finansal sistemindeki likidite sorununu azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Ancak ilgin\u00e7 olan\u0131, aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki likidite sa\u011flama operasyonuna kar\u015f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye’nin ocak ay\u0131nda da finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131.
\nUnutmayal\u0131m; benzer ‘para sa\u00e7ma’ operasyonu \u015fubat sonunda da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirildi. 2011’in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla uluslararas\u0131 finansal piyasalar\u0131n biraz daha rahatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Bu rahatlama \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 ay i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrkiye’ye daha fazla net sermaye giri\u015fi olarak yans\u0131yabilir. D\u00f6viz kurunun mesela kas\u0131m ya da aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015fmesi de bu y\u00f6nde sinyal veriyor. Ancak Yunanistan giderek eurodan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015fa do\u011fru ilerliyor. Bu \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi belirsiz olmakla birlikte, uluslararas\u0131 finansal gerginliklerin arataca\u011f\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin yine finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k.
\nEnerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131
\nCari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 finansman boyutundan de\u011fil de b\u00fcy\u00fcme tempomuz hakk\u0131nda ne kadar bilgi verdi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da incelemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu t\u00fcr bir analiz i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle enerji fiyatlar\u0131ndaki keskin oynamalar\u0131n cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etkisinden kurtulmak gerekiyor. En basit yolu enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na bakmak. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z belirgin bi\u00e7imde artm\u0131yor ve enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k azal\u0131yorsa, daha az ithalat yap\u0131yoruz anlam\u0131na geliyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, eskisine k\u0131yasla yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ve enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ara mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.
\nElbette do\u011frudan ithalata bakarak da benzer bir analiz yap\u0131labilir. Enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 incelemenin bir yarar\u0131 daha var. \u00d6zellikle petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki hareketlerin etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131larak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ne y\u00f6nde gitti\u011fini g\u00f6rmemiz m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oluyor. Bir anlamda cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n dinami\u011fi hakk\u0131nda daha iyi bilgi sahibi oluyoruz. T\u0131pk\u0131 baz\u0131 mal ve hizmetlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015flayarak ana temel enflasyon g\u00f6stergelerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi.
\nGrafik 3’te yine aylar itibariyle son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. 2011’in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131kta toparlanma g\u00f6zleniyor. Son iki ayda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck de olsa ters y\u00f6nde bir hareket var gibi. \u00d6yle de\u011fil oysa. Y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fimlere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k toplamlar\u0131nda son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda \u00f6nemli bir azalma var. Bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde enerji d\u0131\u015f\u0131 cari a\u00e7\u0131k. Ayn\u0131 olgu ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131klar i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli.
\nBu iyile\u015fmenin as\u0131l olarak ihracattaki art\u0131\u015ftan kaynaklanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Ge\u00e7en haftaki yaz\u0131mda ihracat \u00fczerinde ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bi\u00e7imde durmu\u015ftum. Euro cinsinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracat\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 2011’in ilk aylar\u0131ndan bu yana s\u00fcrekli azal\u0131yordu. Gelinen noktada bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla euro cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131zdaki art\u0131\u015f \u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir d\u00fczeye geriledi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, dolar cinsinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracat artmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.
\nBu g\u00f6zlemler b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130thalat\u0131 ba\u015fka bir yaz\u0131mda daha ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 inceleyece\u011fim. Ancak yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 2011’in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtmekte yarar var. S\u0131ra, per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan sanayi \u00fcretimindeki geli\u015fmeleri incelemekte.
\nSanayi \u00fcretimi
\nGrafik 3’te, Ocak 2007’den bu yana sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131zlar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Bir s\u00fcredir sanayi \u00fcretiminde yava\u015flama sinyali gelse de, a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilerin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi oynakl\u0131k bu konuda kesin konu\u015fulmas\u0131n\u0131 engelliyordu. Oysa ocak ay\u0131ndaki \u00fcretim de\u011feri ile \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama e\u011filimi daha belirgin bi\u00e7imde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.5’e kadar geriledi.
\nSanayi \u00fcretiminin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flayan bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi kal\u0131c\u0131 olur mu? Bu belirsiz ortamda yine yan\u0131tlamas\u0131 zor bir soru. Ayn\u0131 noktaya geliyoruz. 2012’de ne oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fimiz \u015fu anda \u00e7ok belirsiz. Orta Vadeli Program’daki b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4. \u0130hracat 2011’e k\u0131yasla iyi sinyaller vermiyor. Ama 2011’e k\u0131yasla. Yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fim gibi sonu\u00e7ta dolar cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z artmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Sorun, euro cinsinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracatta. Onun da art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 hen\u00fcz eksiye d\u00fc\u015fmedi. \u0130hracat performans\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n 2011’e k\u0131yasla daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olmas\u0131, 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ama y\u00fczde 4’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmez. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4 ve alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi as\u0131l olarak d\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131n ne d\u00fczeyde olaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131.
\nBir de \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelere ili\u015fkin not d\u00fc\u015feyim. Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u0131llard\u0131r \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler endeksi yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. Ama\u00e7, gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131ladaki ve sanayi \u00fcretimindeki d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktalar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nceden bilgi edinebilmek. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle T\u00fcrkiye’nin yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemine girdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyorlar.<\/p>