{"id":12754,"date":"2012-03-13T08:42:37","date_gmt":"2012-03-13T06:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12754"},"modified":"2012-03-13T08:42:54","modified_gmt":"2012-03-13T06:42:54","slug":"hadi-hayirlisi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/hadi-hayirlisi\/","title":{"rendered":"Hadi Hay\u0131rl\u0131s\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n toplam\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, temmuz ay\u0131ndan bu yana, sermaye giri\u015fleri, a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2083639697\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Ocak ay\u0131 \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Dikkatimi \u00e7eken birka\u00e7 noktay\u0131 payla\u015fmak istiyorum. Birincisi, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda 2011\u2019in son iki ay\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen azalma, ocak ay\u0131nda s\u00fcrmedi. Ocak ay\u0131nda cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l \u00f6nceki d\u00fczeyini korudu. \u015e\u00fcphesiz nas\u0131l bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za ba\u011fl\u0131; bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla cari a\u00e7\u0131k artmad\u0131 diye sevinebiliriz de.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Finansman ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layam\u0131yoruz\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nDaha dikkat \u00e7ekici olan\u0131 \u015fu: Ayl\u0131k oynamalardan ar\u0131nd\u0131rarak de\u011ferlendirebilmek i\u00e7in, her ay itibariyle son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n toplam\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, temmuz ay\u0131ndan bu yana, sermaye giri\u015fleri, cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda seyrediyor. Bu, olumlu haber de\u011fil. \u015eu anlama geliyor. D\u00f6viz harcamalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n d\u00f6viz gelirlerimizden fazla olmas\u0131 (cari a\u00e7\u0131k vermemiz) nedeniyle finansman gereksinmemiz var. Temmuz ay\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemde bu gereksinimi bor\u00e7lanarak giderebiliyorduk. Bor\u00e7lanmam\u0131z k\u0131sa vadeli oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in bu bor\u00e7 bi\u00e7iminden \u00fcrk\u00fcyorduk ama hi\u00e7 olmazsa ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabiliyorduk.<br \/>\nOysa temmuz ay\u0131ndan bu yana \u2018normal\u2019 yollarla finansman ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layam\u0131yoruz. Geriye iki finansman bi\u00e7imi kal\u0131yor: Birincisi, \u2018cepten yiyoruz\u2019; yani, d\u00f6viz rezervlerimizi azalt\u0131yoruz. \u0130kincisi, kayna\u011f\u0131 belirsiz d\u00f6viz giri\u015fleri oluyor T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye; farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle \u2018net hata ve noksan\u2019 kalemindeki art\u0131\u015fla finanse ediyoruz cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan do\u011fan finansman gereksinmemizi. Sadece \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemler itibariyle b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. Son iki ay\u0131n her biri i\u00e7in de ayn\u0131 olgu ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bu finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrer mi\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nGrafik 1\u2019de cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zdan do\u011fan finansman gereksinmemiz ile bu gereksinmemizin \u2018normal\u2019 yollardan sa\u011flanan miktar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n (milyon dolar cinsinden) geli\u015fimi yer al\u0131yor. Bu fark\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00f6nemler finansman a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 \u00e7ekmedi\u011fimiz d\u00f6nemlere i\u015faret ediyor. S\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcne ne kadar \u00e7ok \u00e7\u0131k\u0131l\u0131yorsa finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 da o kadar art\u0131yor. K\u00fcresel krizin \u015fiddetle hissedildi\u011fi 2008\u2019in sonu ile 2009\u2019un ba\u015f\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde, bu fark\u0131n s\u0131f\u0131r\u0131n \u00fczerinde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkatinizi \u00e7ekerim.<br \/>\n\u0130\u00e7inizi karartmak istemiyorum. Ama g\u00f6zlenenleri de a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya koymakta say\u0131s\u0131z yarar var. Benzer bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015f\u0131yoruz; 2011\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k bi\u00e7imde ortada. \u015e\u00fcphesiz daha \u00f6nemlisi \u015fu: Bu finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 s\u00fcrer mi? Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bankalara ilki aral\u0131k ay\u0131 i\u00e7indeki, ikincisi de \u015fubat sonundaki, bol kep\u00e7e \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l vadeli bor\u00e7 verme operasyonunun Avrupa finansal sistemindeki likidite sorununu azaltt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyoruz. Ancak ilgin\u00e7 olan\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki likidite sa\u011flama operasyonuna kar\u015f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ocak ay\u0131nda da finansman s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131. Evet, elbette \u2018\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ma\u00e7lara\u2019 bakaca\u011f\u0131z ama son oynanan ma\u00e7lar da a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7as\u0131 can s\u0131k\u0131yor. Hadi hay\u0131rl\u0131s\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2012\/03\/12\/fft16_mf937447.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Grafik 1. Cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle olu\u015fan d\u00f6viz gereksinmemiz ile bu gereksinimimizin normal yollardan kar\u015f\u0131lanan k\u0131sm\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark: 2008 Ocak \u2013 2011 Ocak (milyon dolar)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n toplam\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, temmuz ay\u0131ndan bu yana, sermaye giri\u015fleri, a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131nda. Ocak ay\u0131 \u00f6demeler dengesi verileri d\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Dikkatimi \u00e7eken&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12754\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}