{"id":12748,"date":"2012-03-13T08:38:49","date_gmt":"2012-03-13T06:38:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12748"},"modified":"2012-03-13T08:39:03","modified_gmt":"2012-03-13T06:39:03","slug":"konut-fiyatlari-endeksi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/konut-fiyatlari-endeksi\/","title":{"rendered":"Konut Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n sildi\u011fi 105 milyar euro bor\u00e7 kimin \u00fczerinde kalacak? \u00d6zel kesim i\u00e7indeki kavgan\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6\u015fe kom\u015fum Ali A\u011fao\u011flu d\u00fcn anlatt\u0131. Zarar\u0131n farkl\u0131 oyuncular aras\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Yani s\u0131f\u0131r toplaml\u0131d\u0131r. Ocak \u00f6demeler dengesi Merkez Bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nland\u0131. Piyasa 5.5 milyar dolar cari i\u015flemler a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. 6 milyar dolar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ge\u00e7en y\u0131la e\u015fittir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile y\u0131ll\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131k 77 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde sabit kald\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1059371312\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00f6viz talebi arz\u0131n \u00fczerinde mi? \u0130\u015faretler bu y\u00f6ndedir. Son bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda d\u00f6viz sepeti 2.08 TL\u2019ye, dolar 1.80 TL\u2019ye gelmi\u015fti. \u015eubat ortas\u0131nda d\u00f6viz sepetinin 2.01 TL\u2019ye ve dolar\u0131n 1.73 TL\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde d\u00f6viz kuru ile d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k aras\u0131nda do\u011frudan ba\u011f yoktur. Ancak y\u00fcksek petrol fiyat\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130ktisat politikas\u0131nda revizyon ihtimali g\u00fcndeme geliyor. Konu \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli; bir yaz\u0131 dizisi gerektiriyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00c7ok ihtiya\u00e7 vard\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcn Merkez Bankas\u0131 internet sitesine \u00f6demeler dengesi verilerini indirmek i\u00e7in girdim. Ne g\u00f6reyim? Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yeni hesaplanan Konut Fiyatlar\u0131 Endeksi kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f. Ho\u015f bir s\u00fcrpriz oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n konjonkt\u00fcr analizindeki \u00f6nemi k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131nda iyice belirginle\u015fti. \u00d6rne\u011fin ABD i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlanan Case-Shiller endeksi art\u0131k istihdam, enflasyon, b\u00fcy\u00fcme gibi temel makro g\u00f6stergeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor. K\u0131sa s\u00fcre \u00f6nce \u00f6zel kesim devreye girdi. Birini biliyorum. Reidin adl\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015f (reidin.com) b\u00fcy\u00fck iller i\u00e7in konut fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ve kiralar\u0131 hesapl\u0131yor. Ama hem abonelik gerektiriyor hem kapsam\u0131na h\u00e2kim de\u011filiz.<\/p>\n<p>Bireysel konut kredileri Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n i\u015fini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Gayrimenkul de\u011ferlendirme \u015firketleri taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen de\u011ferlendirme raporlar\u0131n\u0131 bankalardan topluyor. Kredinin kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 bile gerekmiyor. Veri taban\u0131n\u0131 bunlar olu\u015fturuyor. Y\u00f6ntemle ilgilenenler i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131klama eklenmi\u015f. Kapsanan (ve kapsanmayan) iller, kullan\u0131lan form\u00fcller, tan\u0131mlar vs. ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bilgi veriliyor. Neyse, \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir bo\u015flu\u011fu dolduran bu endeks i\u00e7in y\u00f6netimi kutluyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Konut enflasyonu<\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1140183303\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ki endeks var. Biri yeni (ilk kez sat\u0131lan) ya da eski t\u00fcm konutlar\u0131 kaps\u0131yor. 26 b\u00f6lgede 73 ilin verilerini kullan\u0131yor. Sekiz il yeterli veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in kapsam d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Di\u011feri sadece yeni konutlar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131na bak\u0131yor. Yeterli veri bulunan 26 ili kaps\u0131yor. Ancak yeni konut endeksi il baz\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanm\u0131yor. Veriler Ocak 2010\u2019dan ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Yani y\u0131ll\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Ocak 2011\u2019den itibaren hesaplan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fotograf.gazetevatan.com\/newpics\/news\/120320122042328681400_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" align=\"right\" \/>Endeksten bol g\u00f6rsel malzeme \u00e7\u0131kar. Hangisinden ba\u015flamal\u0131? B\u00f6lgeleri kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcm. Toplam ve yeni konut fiyatlar\u0131na bakt\u0131m. Sonunda T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in konut fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketici enflasyonu ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131m. Di\u011ferleri sonraya kald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Grafik kendisini iyi anlat\u0131yor. Bir: Konut fiyat\u0131 T\u00dcFE\u2019den h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor. \u0130ki: Zirveyi 2011 ortas\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00dc\u00e7: Y\u0131l sonunda t\u00fcketici enflasyonu ile makas kapan\u0131yor. Bilginize&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n sildi\u011fi 105 milyar euro bor\u00e7 kimin \u00fczerinde kalacak? \u00d6zel kesim i\u00e7indeki kavgan\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6\u015fe kom\u015fum Ali A\u011fao\u011flu d\u00fcn anlatt\u0131. Zarar\u0131n farkl\u0131 oyuncular aras\u0131nda da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12748","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12748"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12748\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}