{"id":12723,"date":"2012-03-12T14:09:10","date_gmt":"2012-03-12T12:09:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12723"},"modified":"2012-03-12T14:09:18","modified_gmt":"2012-03-12T12:09:18","slug":"buyumede-karisik-sinyaller","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/buyumede-karisik-sinyaller\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fcy\u00fcmede Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k Sinyaller"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131na g\u00f6re son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zla yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7e\u015fitli verilerden anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Tahminde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fck \u00e7ekilen konu yava\u015flaman\u0131n ne kadar oldu\u011fu. Merak edilen konu ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda da devam edip etmedi\u011fi.<br \/>\n\u00d6nce imalat sanayi verileriyle ba\u015flayal\u0131m. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131nda imalat sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi ile milli gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 aras\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekici bir paralellik vard\u0131. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda imalat sanayi endeksi bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 15 artarken, reel milli gelir b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 12 olmu\u015ftu. \u0130kinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayda imalat sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 8.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, milli gelir y\u00fczde 8.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 ayda imalat sanayi \u00fcretimi y\u00fczde 8.4, milli gelir y\u00fczde 8.2 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda imalat sanayi \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 5.8&#8217;e geriledi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda milli gelirin de y\u00fczde 4-5 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmaz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2521305382\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>OLUMSUZ VER\u0130LER<\/strong><br \/>\nEkonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle yak\u0131ndan ili\u015fkili ba\u015fka veriler imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminden yola \u00e7\u0131karak yap\u0131lan tahminler kadar iyimser bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme i\u015faret etmiyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, ekonomi y\u00fczde 12 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken y\u00fczde 40 civar\u0131nda artan ara mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131, ekonomi y\u00fczde 8 gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcrken y\u00fczde 30&#8217;larda art\u0131yordu. Ama, y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ara mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 14 oldu. Bir dolarl\u0131k ara mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131n\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 reel milli gelir hesab\u0131ndaki e\u011filimlerden yola \u00e7\u0131karsak, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3&#8217;\u00fcn alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.<br \/>\nYat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131nda da y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndaki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusunda pek iyimser olunamayacak geli\u015fmeler oldu. Yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 60&#8217;a varan art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6sterirken, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 ayda art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 30&#8217;a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ise yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 6&#8217;ya yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu ticaret ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerinde \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k ciro endeksi verisi a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor. Hizmet ve ticaret alan\u0131ndaki reel ciro art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerine g\u00f6re, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 22, ikinci \u00fc\u00e7 ayda y\u00fczde 15, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00fc\u00e7 ayda y\u00fczde 14 olurken, son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda y\u00fczde 2.1 oldu. Reel ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu denli h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken katma de\u011fer art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha yava\u015f h\u0131z kesti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek biraz zor.<br \/>\nBu \u00e7er\u00e7evede y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda milli gelirin de y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmaz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130LK \u00dc\u00c7 AY DA \u0130Y\u0130 OLMAYAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><br \/>\nGe\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131ndaki e\u011filim do\u011fal olarak bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131na da yans\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Ocak ay\u0131nda imalat sanayi \u00fcretimindeki art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 0.5&#8217;te kald\u0131. Mevsim ve takvimden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00fcretim endeksi bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.1, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 2.4 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<br \/>\nSon aylarda d\u00f6viz kredilerindeki art\u0131\u015fta dikkat \u00e7ekici bir gerileme g\u00f6zleniyor. TL mevduat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da yok denecek kadar az. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin reel olarak bir \u00f6nceki \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n da alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 hi\u00e7 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmaz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk dokuz ay\u0131na g\u00f6re son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zla yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00e7e\u015fitli verilerden anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Tahminde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fck \u00e7ekilen konu yava\u015flaman\u0131n ne kadar oldu\u011fu. Merak&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":675,"featured_media":9441,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12723","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12723","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/675"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12723"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12723\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12723"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12723"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12723"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}