{"id":12657,"date":"2012-03-10T09:12:54","date_gmt":"2012-03-10T07:12:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12657"},"modified":"2012-03-10T09:13:08","modified_gmt":"2012-03-10T07:13:08","slug":"uretim-ivme-kaybetmeye-basladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/uretim-ivme-kaybetmeye-basladi\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00dcretim \u0130vme Kaybetmeye Ba\u015flad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Ocak ay\u0131ndaki \u00fcretim de\u011feri ile \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama e\u011filimi daha belirgin bi\u00e7imde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3106094267\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi ocak ay\u0131nda bir ay \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 3.1 azald\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretimi son on d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r dar bir arl\u0131kta oynuyor. 2010 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndan ba\u015flay\u0131p Ocak 2012\u2019de biten bu on d\u00f6rt ay i\u00e7inde mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi endeksinin ortalamas\u0131 126.5 oldu. Bu d\u00f6nemde ula\u015f\u0131lan en y\u00fcksek de\u011fer bunun y\u00fczde 3.3 \u00fczerinde, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck de\u011fer ise y\u00fczde 2.1 alt\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan ocak ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi tam da ortalama d\u00fczeyindeydi (Grafik 1).<br \/>\nAyl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimler de benzer bir olguyu i\u015faret ediyorlar. Sanayi \u00fcretiminde (dikkat, art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda de\u011fil) asl\u0131nda on d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r belirgin bir e\u011filim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yok. Evet, ocak ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.1 oran\u0131nda azald\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi. Ama kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.2 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f, hemen bir ay sonra ise y\u00fczde 2.5 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Keza, son on d\u00f6rt ay\u0131n sekizinde ayl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler var. \u00dcstelik bunlar\u0131n yar\u0131dan fazlas\u0131 2011\u2019in \u015fubat ay\u0131 ile haziran ay\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde olmu\u015f. K\u0131sacas\u0131, sanayi \u00fcretimi son on d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r \u2018yatay\u2019 bir e\u011filim sergiliyor. Oysa s\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim on d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemden \u00f6nceki on d\u00f6rt ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nemde neredeyse kesintisiz y\u00fckselmi\u015fti sanayi \u00fcretimi.<br \/>\nLaf\u0131 \u00e7ok doland\u0131rd\u0131m: Sanayi \u00fcretiminde bir zamand\u0131r ivme kayb\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu; \u00fcretimin y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde yava\u015fl\u0131yordu. 2011\u2019in ilk iki ay\u0131 hari\u00e7 y\u0131ll\u0131k 9 y\u00fczde oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f vard\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretiminde. Fakat bu e\u011filime bakarak \u201cEvet sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor\u201d yarg\u0131s\u0131na varmak i\u00e7in erkendi. Oysa ocak ay\u0131ndaki \u00fcretim de\u011feri ile \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama e\u011filimi daha belirgin bi\u00e7imde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 (Grafik 2).<br \/>\nSanayi \u00fcretiminin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015flayan bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi kal\u0131c\u0131 olur mu? Zor bir soru. Yine ayn\u0131 noktaya geliyoruz. 2012\u2019de ne oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fimiz \u015fu anda \u00e7ok belirsiz. \u0130hracat 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla iyi sinyaller vermiyor. Ama 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla. \u0130hracat performans\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n 2011\u2019e k\u0131yasla daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olmas\u0131, 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcr ama y\u00fczde 4\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmez. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 4 ve alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi as\u0131l olarak d\u0131\u015f fon giri\u015flerinin ne d\u00fczeyde olaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131. 2011\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan karamsard\u0131. Son iki ay ise iyimser ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Garip bir durum\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\n\u2018Karamsar\u2019 ve \u2018iyimser\u2019 dedi\u011fime bakmay\u0131n. S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim sonu\u00e7ta k\u0131sa vadeli yabanc\u0131 sermaye (fon) giri\u015fi. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin faiz artt\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne girmeleri ve bol kep\u00e7e sa\u00e7t\u0131klar\u0131 paralar\u0131 geri \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flamalar\u0131 ile bu fonlar bizi terk edecekler. Faizde ve kurda hem art\u0131\u015fa hem de dalgalanmaya yol a\u00e7acaklar. Buralarda havay\u0131 bozacaklar. Bu, hemen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyecek ama muhtemelen 2013\u2019ten itibaren ne zaman ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tart\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flar\u0131z. \u2018Geldi\u011fi gibi gidecek paray\u0131\u2019 istemiyoruz asl\u0131nda. Gelin g\u00f6r\u00fcn ki yurti\u00e7i tasarruflar\u0131m\u0131z h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmek i\u00e7in gereksindi\u011fimiz yat\u0131r\u0131m art\u0131\u015f\u0131na yetmeyince, asl\u0131nda istemedi\u011fimiz bu k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f fonlar 2012\u2019de yeteri kadar gelir de b\u00fcy\u00fcr m\u00fcy\u00fcz diye kafa yoruyoruz. Garip bir durum velhas\u0131l.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2012\/03\/09\/fft16_mf935426.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ocak ay\u0131ndaki \u00fcretim de\u011feri ile \u00fcretimin art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama e\u011filimi daha belirgin bi\u00e7imde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sanayi \u00fcretimi ocak ay\u0131nda bir&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12657"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12657\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}