{"id":12627,"date":"2012-03-09T09:08:31","date_gmt":"2012-03-09T07:08:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12627"},"modified":"2012-03-09T09:24:46","modified_gmt":"2012-03-09T07:24:46","slug":"somut-yavaslama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/somut-yavaslama\/","title":{"rendered":"Somut Yava\u015flama"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu sene b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. Yava\u015flama konusunda genel bir mutabakat var. Yava\u015flaman\u0131n dozu noktas\u0131nda ise ciddi bir ayr\u0131\u015fma s\u00f6z konusu. Kimileri y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda \u00e7ok sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Benim gibi baz\u0131lar\u0131 da yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u00e7ok daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3624468749\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n dozunun ne olaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin bu farkl\u0131 tezleri s\u0131nayacak somut veriler, bilgiler hen\u00fcz ortada yok. Somut b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerin \u00fcretilip, a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerde biraz geriden geliyor. Bizde de b\u00f6yle. Ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin somut say\u0131lar aradan baya\u011f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre ge\u00e7tikten sonra a\u00e7\u0131klanabiliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, hala 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131na ili\u015fkin somut veriler yok elimizde. Bu bilgiyi ancak bu g\u00fcnlerde, d\u00f6nemin \u00fcst\u00fcnden \u00fc\u00e7 ay ge\u00e7tikten sonra \u00f6\u011frenece\u011fiz. Aradaki ge\u00e7en s\u00fcrede ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na dair g\u00f6reli bir karanl\u0131k da kal\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p><strong>* * *<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdi de b\u00f6yle bir durum var. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na dair yayg\u0131n bir yava\u015flama \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc var. Ama bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcy\u00fc somut verilerle test edip do\u011frulama olana\u011f\u0131 hen\u00fcz yok. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, 2012 performans\u0131na ili\u015fkin bir karanl\u0131kta say\u0131l\u0131r\u0131z. Bir t\u00fcr k\u00f6r at\u0131\u015f yap\u0131yoruz yani. Yine de b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle \u00e7aresiz de\u011filiz. GSMH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ili\u015fkin verilerde olan gecikmeyi \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge say\u0131labilecek baz\u0131 verilerle a\u015fmaya, biraz da olsa yolumuzu g\u00f6rmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Bu t\u00fcr \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6sterge rol\u00fc oynayabilecek verilerden en \u00f6nemlisi ayl\u0131k sanayi \u00fcretim bilgileri. Sanayi \u00fcretimi hareketleri ile GSMH&#8217;n\u0131n sergiledi\u011fi hareket deseni \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ayl\u0131k sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri bu nedenle b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerinin anlaml\u0131 bir \u00f6n g\u00f6stergesi h\u00fcviyetine sahip. Bu veriler daha s\u0131kl\u0131kla a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc g\u00f6rmemizde \u00f6nemli bir yard\u0131m sa\u011fl\u0131yor ayl\u0131k sanayi \u00fcretim verileri.<\/p>\n<p>2012 y\u0131l\u0131 Ocak ay\u0131na ili\u015fkin sanayi \u00fcretim verileri a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz y\u0131l\u0131n ilk somut \u00fcretim bilgisi bu. Yani, 2012 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131k da olsa ilk somut \u0131\u015f\u0131k bu verilerden geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle ilgili ilk somut veriler ekonomide ciddi bir yava\u015flaman\u0131n ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olabilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin ilk somut bilgiyi veriyor. Ocak ay\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretiminin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3.3 oran\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyordu. Bu beklenti bile ge\u00e7en senenin ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na k\u0131yasla ciddi bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyordu. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme bunun ancak yar\u0131s\u0131 kadar oldu. Sanayi \u00fcretim verileri Ocak 2012 de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 1.5 d\u00fczeyinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>2009 sonundan bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 bu. Dahas\u0131, mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Ocak 2012 de sanayi \u00fcretiminin, b\u0131rak\u0131n yava\u015flamay\u0131, y\u00fczde 3.1 oran\u0131nda geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. En \u00f6nemli bulgu bu. Son aylarda g\u00f6rece yumu\u015fak bi\u00e7imde h\u0131z kesmekte olan sanayi \u00fcretiminin nihayet Ocak ay\u0131nda somut olarak gerilemeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ocak ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim bilgileri sekt\u00f6rdeki gerilemenin yayg\u0131n oldu\u011funu ve az say\u0131da istisna d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda alt sekt\u00f6rlerde de gerileme ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-787687504\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><strong>* * *<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 ilk verisi beklenenin de \u00f6tesinde bir yava\u015flaman\u0131n ilk i\u015fareti say\u0131labilir. Say\u0131labilir diyorum zira y\u0131l\u0131n ilk ay\u0131n\u0131n bulgular\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcne ili\u015fkin sonu\u00e7 \u00fcretmek yanl\u0131\u015f olur. Bu ba\u011flamda g\u00f6rece ihtiyatl\u0131 olmakta fayda var. Ama bana kal\u0131rsa e\u011filim a\u00e7\u0131k. B\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00f6nemli bir ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131n, sert say\u0131labilecek bir yava\u015flaman\u0131n ilk somut i\u015fareti ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fumuz s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lk ay verilerini y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcne yayman\u0131n yan\u0131lt\u0131c\u0131 olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steren \u00f6nemli bir nokta 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde ciddi bir baz etkisi yaratm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Ocak ay\u0131ndaki sert yava\u015flaman\u0131n biraz da nispi oldu\u011funu, bunun azalarak da olsa y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda s\u00fcrece\u011fini ve ikinci yar\u0131da bu e\u011filimin ters d\u00f6nerek y\u0131l\u0131n nispeten yumu\u015fak bir yava\u015flamayla bitmesine yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn gibi duruyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yine de y\u0131l\u0131n ilk somut verisinin sert ini\u015f tezine destek verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Sertli\u011fin ne kadar yumu\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha net g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1013519817\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu sene b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyoruz. Yava\u015flama konusunda genel bir mutabakat var. Yava\u015flaman\u0131n dozu noktas\u0131nda ise ciddi bir ayr\u0131\u015fma s\u00f6z konusu. Kimileri y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131nda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12627","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12627"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12627\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12627"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12627"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12627"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}