{"id":12620,"date":"2012-03-09T09:21:41","date_gmt":"2012-03-09T07:21:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12620"},"modified":"2012-03-09T09:21:49","modified_gmt":"2012-03-09T07:21:49","slug":"dananin-kuyrugu-bugun-kopabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/dananin-kuyrugu-bugun-kopabilir\/","title":{"rendered":"Danan\u0131n Kuyru\u011fu Bug\u00fcn Kopabilir!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Siz bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 okudu\u011funuzda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n \u201cbor\u00e7 takas\u0131\u201d ihalesinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olacak. 105 milyar euroya varan bir borcun \u201csilinebilmesi\u201d i\u00e7in kamu kurumu niteli\u011fi ta\u015f\u0131mayan \u00f6zel ki\u015fi ve kurumlar\u0131n alacaklar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ini a\u015fan bir oran\u0131ndan vaz ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmalar\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00dcstelik de vazge\u00e7enlerin oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 75\u2019i a\u015fmas\u0131 gerekiyor (Baz\u0131 yorumlar y\u00fczde 50\u2019nin yeterli olabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde).<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3158457459\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Peki geriye kalan y\u00fczde 25 kat\u0131lmazsa ne olacak? O da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f durumda ve onlarda \u201ckurunun yan\u0131nda yanan ya\u015flar\u201d misali \u201cmecburen\u201d bu takasa kat\u0131lacak. Ad\u0131na da \u201ckollektif hareket maddesi (Collevtive Action Clouse &#8211; CAC)\u201d deniyor. D\u00fcn ak\u015fam bu yaz\u0131 yaz\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada takasa kat\u0131lacaklar\u0131n\u0131 bildirenlerin oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 60 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 76\u2019ya kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 dedikodular\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n toparlamas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmu\u015ftu! (Fed\u2019in bilan\u00e7osunu b\u00fcy\u00fctmeden yeni bir parasal \u201ckolayla\u015ft\u0131rma\u201d yapaca\u011f\u0131 da y\u00fckseli\u015fi getirdi ama bunun ne menem bir \u015fey olaca\u011f\u0131 netle\u015fmedi\u011finden y\u00fckseli\u015f daha \u00e7ok son sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin bir d\u00fczeltmesi olarak kald\u0131!)<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n TS\u0130 08.00 itibariyle Yunan Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n web sitesinde a\u00e7\u0131klanaca\u011f\u0131 duyuruldu. Meselenin 20 Mart\u2019taki 14.5 milyar euroluk itfa \u00f6ncesinde sonu\u00e7land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Asl\u0131nda i\u015f, bug\u00fcne kadar bile kalmamal\u0131yd\u0131. Ancak alacakl\u0131lar\u0131n ayak diremeleri, do\u011fal olarak \u201chayli g\u00f6n\u00fcls\u00fcz\u201d olmalar\u0131 s\u00fcreci bu kadar uzatt\u0131. Kald\u0131 ki makul bir anla\u015fma olsayd\u0131 herkes son g\u00fcn\u00fc m\u00fc beklerdi?<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar takasta herhangi bir sorun \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini hi\u00e7 bir zaman fiyatlamad\u0131lar. Haftan\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda bir ara keyifler ka\u00e7sa da \u2018nas\u0131lsa hallolacak\u2019 denilerek k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede toparland\u0131 piyasalar.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak, mesele sadece kabul edenlerin y\u00fczde 75\u2019i a\u015fmas\u0131yla da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyecek gibi. \u00dclkedeki 4 tane emeklilik fonu takasa kat\u0131lmayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015flar. CAC i\u015fletilirse, en az\u0131ndan fonun pay sahiplerine \u2018Biz yapmad\u0131k, bize zorla yapt\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u2019 diyebilecekler. Di\u011fer yandan da bu fonlar de\u011filse bile yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131m fonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdiden dava a\u00e7maya haz\u0131rland\u0131klar\u0131 haberleri geliyor. Kald\u0131 ki 10 milyar euroluk bono \u0130ngiliz kanunlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Bunlar\u0131n hukuki alt yap\u0131s\u0131 Yunan kanunlar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015flardan farkl\u0131 ve \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131 mahkeme s\u00fcre\u00e7leri i\u015fleyebilecek. \u015eimdilik bu konuya kimse kafay\u0131 takm\u0131yor. Draghi\u2019de Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u201cfaizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda neredeyse bu konuyu \u201cyok varsaym\u0131\u015f\u201d durumda.<\/p>\n<p>Diyelim ki \u201ctakas\u201d \u015fu veya bu \u015fekilde halloldu. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fczde 21, her iki gen\u00e7ten birinin i\u015fsiz oldu\u011fu bir \u00fclke nas\u0131l toparlanacak da \u201cyeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lan\u201d bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyebilecek. Hem de bu kadar \u00e7ok kemer s\u0131kma \u00f6nlemi al\u0131nm\u0131\u015fken. Benim kanaatim \u00f6denemeyece\u011fi ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 18 ay i\u00e7inde (bunu not al\u0131n isterseniz) kom\u015funun yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n, yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde .<\/p>\n<p>As\u0131l k\u0131yamet takas\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015f(e)memesi durumunda kopacak. Olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sanm\u0131yorum. Ancak b\u00f6yle bir a\u00e7\u0131klama gelecek olur ise ortal\u0131ktaki toz dumandan g\u00f6z g\u00f6z\u00fc g\u00f6rmeyecektir. AB borsalar\u0131 ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcm varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler (alt\u0131n\/g\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f hari\u00e7), euronun da dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fine \u015fahit olabiliriz. As\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fck darbeyi kredi risk sigortas\u0131 (Credit Default Swap-CDS) piyasas\u0131 alacakt\u0131r. Bu piyasan\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadarki \u201cen b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u201d olarak tarihe ge\u00e7ebilir.<\/p>\n<p>Dedim ya danan\u0131n kuyru\u011fu bug\u00fcn kopabilir. Yine de \u201cb\u00fcy\u00fck abiler\u201d danan\u0131n kuyru\u011funu yerinde tutabilmek i\u00e7in d\u00fcn gece \u00e7ok \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilirler.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-788667779\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Siz bu yaz\u0131y\u0131 okudu\u011funuzda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n \u201cbor\u00e7 takas\u0131\u201d ihalesinin sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015f olacak. 105 milyar euroya varan bir borcun \u201csilinebilmesi\u201d i\u00e7in kamu kurumu niteli\u011fi&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12620","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12620"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12620\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12620"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12620"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12620"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}