{"id":12550,"date":"2012-03-08T09:21:09","date_gmt":"2012-03-08T07:21:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12550"},"modified":"2012-03-08T09:21:18","modified_gmt":"2012-03-08T07:21:18","slug":"yedi-yil-bolluk-yedi-yil-kitlik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/yedi-yil-bolluk-yedi-yil-kitlik\/","title":{"rendered":"Yedi Y\u0131l Bolluk Yedi Y\u0131l K\u0131tl\u0131k"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel likidite bollu\u011fu t\u00fcm tarihi rekorlar\u0131 alt\u00fcst ediyor. Ama mali piyasalarda hava bozuldu. Rivayetler muhtelif. Yunanistan ne olacak? \u0130ran\u2019a askeri m\u00fcdahale petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiler? \u00c7in yava\u015fl\u0131yor mu? Korkunun ecele yarar\u0131 olmazm\u0131\u015f.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4130627115\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>D\u00fcn borsalarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f durdu. Son bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda parite 1.31 civar\u0131nda seyrediyordu. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 2.08 TL\u2019yi g\u00f6ren d\u00f6viz sepeti biraz, 2 kr\u015f. geriledi. Not: Yeni simgeyi indirdim ama kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m yaz\u0131 tipine (Times New Roman) uymuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu sabah ocak sanayi \u00fcretimi verileri \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Piyasa ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 3,3 art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ben daha iyimserim. \u00d6\u011fleden sonra mart\u0131n ilk Beklenti Anketi yay\u0131nlan\u0131yor. Enflasyon, kur ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri ilgimi \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>15 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7evrim<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kemal Dervi\u015f\u2019in k\u00fcresel kriz analizini yeni tan\u0131tt\u0131m. Ayn\u0131 sitede MIT-Harvard \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyesi Jeffrey Frenkel\u2019in ilgin\u00e7 bir makalesi yay\u0131nland\u0131: \u201cAcaba Y\u00fckselen Piyasalar 2012\u2019de \u00c7\u00f6kecek Mi?\u201d (www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/frankel11\/English &lt;http:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/frankel11\/English&gt;).<\/p>\n<p>Frenkel \u00f6nce bir g\u00f6zlem yap\u0131yor. Y\u00fckselen piyasalar son yedi y\u0131l\u0131 \u00e7ok parlak ge\u00e7irdi. B\u00fcy\u00fcme, kamu maliyesi, kredi notu vs. temel g\u00f6stergeleri geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerden \u00e7ok daha iyi \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan bir uyar\u0131 geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c2012 ba\u015flarken, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar y\u00fckselen piyasalarda bir d\u00fczeltme zaman\u0131n\u0131n geldi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n tekrar d\u00fc\u015fmesi pek\u00e2l\u00e2 bunu tetikleyebilir. \u00c7in\u2019de bir \u201csert ini\u015f\u201d olabilir mi? Hammadde fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi Latin Amerika\u2019y\u0131 vurur mu? AB\u2019nin kamu borcu belas\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye gibi kom\u015fulara bula\u015f\u0131r m\u0131?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Frenkel \u201c15 y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00e7evrim\u201d hipotezini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor. Buna g\u00f6re y\u00fckselen piyasalar 15 y\u0131lda bir krize giriyor. Ampirik kan\u0131tla ba\u015fl\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin 1982 Meksika bor\u00e7 krizi ile 1997 Asya Krizi aras\u0131nda tam 15 y\u0131l var. Son kriz tarihine 15 ekleyince 2012 ediyor.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-706102075\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Olur mu? Bu noktada Frenkel bamba\u015fka bir alana giriyor. \u0130ncil\u2019de Eski Ahit\u2019e d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Firavun\u2019la Yusuf Peygamber\u2019in hik\u00e2yesini anlat\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 internetten kontrol ettim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Firavun ve Yusuf Peygamber<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Firavun\u2019un r\u00fcyas\u0131nda Nil\u2019den yedi sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 ve \u015fi\u015fman inek \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ama ard\u0131ndan gelen yedi c\u0131l\u0131z ve sa\u011fl\u0131ks\u0131z inek onlar\u0131 yiyor. Benzer bir r\u00fcyay\u0131 tekrar g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Tefsirini Yusuf Peygamber\u2019den istiyor. Frenkel \u015f\u00f6yle anlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cR\u00fcyan\u0131n anlam\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. \u00d6nce yedi bolluk y\u0131l\u0131 olacak, Nil\u2019in ta\u015fmas\u0131 sayesinde \u00e7ok iyi hasat kald\u0131r\u0131lacak. Ama bunu yedi k\u0131tl\u0131k y\u0131l\u0131 izleyecek, kurakl\u0131k a\u00e7l\u0131\u011fa yol a\u00e7acak. Hakikaten \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc tutuyor. Firavun da Yusuf\u2019a inan\u0131yor. Yedi bolluk y\u0131l\u0131nda ambarlar\u0131 dolduruyor. B\u00f6ylece yedi k\u0131tl\u0131k y\u0131l\u0131nda M\u0131s\u0131r halk\u0131 a\u00e7l\u0131ktan k\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131yor. Bu hik\u00e2ye geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen \u00fclke y\u00f6neticileri i\u00e7in \u00e7ok de\u011ferli dersler i\u00e7eriyor.\u201d<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-103469219\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi yak\u0131n ge\u00e7mi\u015fe d\u00f6nelim. 1975-81 aras\u0131nda petro-dolarlar geli\u015fen d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi besliyor. 1982-89 aras\u0131na ise \u201ckaybolmu\u015f on y\u0131l\u201d deniyor. \u0130kinci \u00e7evrimde 1989-96 aras\u0131nda k\u00fcresel sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme 1997-2004 d\u00f6neminde tersine d\u00f6n\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Son bol sermayeli \u00e7evrim 2004\u2019ten 2011\u2019e geliyor. Frenkel\u2019in a\u011fz\u0131ndan bitirelim:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cE\u011fer tarih kendini tekrar edecekse, y\u00fckselen piyasalara sermaye ak\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc kez aniden durmas\u0131 (\u201csudden stop\u201d) zaman\u0131 geldi.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u00fcresel likidite bollu\u011fu t\u00fcm tarihi rekorlar\u0131 alt\u00fcst ediyor. Ama mali piyasalarda hava bozuldu. Rivayetler muhtelif. Yunanistan ne olacak? \u0130ran\u2019a askeri m\u00fcdahale petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiler?&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12550"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12550\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}