{"id":12547,"date":"2012-03-08T09:20:01","date_gmt":"2012-03-08T07:20:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12547"},"modified":"2012-03-08T09:20:10","modified_gmt":"2012-03-08T07:20:10","slug":"ihracat-uzerine-gozlemler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ihracat-uzerine-gozlemler\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130hracat \u00dczerine G\u00f6zlemler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Mal satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131m ve ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ile ili\u015fkilerini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irece\u011fim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3765389114\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>IMF\u2019nin ge\u00e7enlerde yeniledi\u011fi tahmine g\u00f6re, 2011\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.1 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi bekleniyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme tahmini ise y\u00fczde 0.5 d\u00fczeyinde. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda 2011\u2019in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, hem Euro B\u00f6lgesi hem de bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak AB bir \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 0.3 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fcler. \u0130hracat yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 ile ihracat\u0131m\u0131z aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki olmas\u0131 beklenir. Elbette bir \u00fclkeye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracat\u0131n ne d\u00fczeyde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n tek belirleyicisi o \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fil. D\u00f6viz kuru ve satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z mal\u0131n kalitesi de \u00f6nemli. Bunlar\u0131n etkilediklerini unutmadan, mal satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131m ve ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ile ili\u015fkilerini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irece\u011fim. 2002-2011 d\u00f6neminde her \u00fclkeye yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ortalama ihracat, en b\u00fcy\u00fckten en k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fc\u011fe do\u011fru s\u0131raland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u015fu tablo ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Ba\u015fta Almanya var. S\u00f6z konusu d\u00f6nemde ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 12\u2019si bu \u00fclkeye. Pe\u015fi s\u0131ra \u0130ngiltere (y\u00fczde 7.3), \u0130talya (y\u00fczde 6.6), Fransa (y\u00fczde 5.5) ve ABD (y\u00fczde 5.5) geliyor. \u0130lk on iki \u00fclkeye ihracat\u0131m\u0131z, toplam ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019sini olu\u015fturuyor. \u00dclke say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 yirmi bire \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise toplam ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ine ula\u015f\u0131yoruz.<br \/>\nBu yirmi bir \u00fclkeyi al\u0131yorum. Bu \u00fclkelerin 2002-2011 d\u00f6nemindeki y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131n\u0131, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7indeki y\u0131ll\u0131k paylar\u0131 ile a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131yorum. B\u00f6ylelikle ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz yirmi bir \u00fclke i\u00e7in 2002-2001 aras\u0131ndaki her y\u0131la ili\u015fkin tek bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 hesaplamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oluyor. Buna \u2018pazar b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131\u2019 diyeyim. Bir \u00fclkenin, ele al\u0131nan y\u0131lda ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 ne kadar y\u00fcksekse, o \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131, pazar b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 o kadar \u00e7ok etkiliyor.<br \/>\nGrafik 1\u2019de ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ile pazar b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n hareketleri birlikte g\u00f6steriliyor. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 soldaki eksende, pazar b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z ise sa\u011fdaki eksende g\u00f6steriliyor. Her iki de\u011fi\u015fken aras\u0131nda birebir bir ili\u015fki yok. Ama yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fkiye sahip olduklar\u0131 da a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2002-2011, elbette bu yak\u0131n ili\u015fkinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kan\u0131tlamak i\u00e7in uzun bir zaman dilimi de\u011fil. Ne amac\u0131m bu t\u00fcr bir kan\u0131tlama ne de basit bir grafi\u011fin kan\u0131t olmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130ki de\u011fi\u015fken aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki olabilece\u011fini g\u00f6stermek yeterli bu yaz\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan.<br \/>\nPazar b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n 2012\u2019de ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczey de \u00f6nemli. Yirmi bir \u00fclkeden en fazla ihracat yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ilk yedi \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 ocak ay\u0131nda g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f durumda. G\u00fcncelleme daha \u00e7ok a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru oldu. Di\u011fer \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in IMF\u2019nin Eyl\u00fcl 2011\u2019deki tahminlerini ald\u0131m; g\u00fcncellenseydiler muhtemelen bir miktar a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru g\u00fcncelleneceklerdi. Pazar b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 bulmak i\u00e7in, \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 ile ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7indeki paylar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7arpt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 yukar\u0131da s\u00f6yledim. Gereken ama mevcut olmayan 2012 pazar paylar\u0131 i\u00e7in 2011\u2019deki de\u011ferleri ald\u0131m.<br \/>\nBu hesap sonucunda 2011\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.8 d\u00fczeyinde olan pazar b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n 2012\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.2\u2019ye d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. \u0130ki nokta: Birincisi, ihracat pazar\u0131m\u0131z 2012\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. \u0130kincisi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00e7ok belirgin de\u011fil ama sonu\u00e7ta pazar b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z d\u00fc\u015fecek. T\u00fcrk\u00e7esi: \u0130hracat, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131za 2011\u2019deki katk\u0131y\u0131 vermeyecek. Ama b\u00fcy\u00fck bir engel de olu\u015fturmayacak. Bu durumda, as\u0131l belirleyici uluslararas\u0131 risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 olacak. Son g\u00fcnlerde o cephede i\u015fler yolunda gitmiyor.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2012\/03\/08\/fft16_mf933881.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Grafik 1. \u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ve ihracat pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131:<br \/>\n2002-2022 (%)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mal satt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131m ve ihracat\u0131m\u0131z ile ili\u015fkilerini g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irece\u011fim. IMF\u2019nin ge\u00e7enlerde yeniledi\u011fi tahmine g\u00f6re, 2011\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12547","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12547","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12547"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12547\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12547"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12547"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12547"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}