{"id":12508,"date":"2012-03-07T12:02:16","date_gmt":"2012-03-07T10:02:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12508"},"modified":"2012-03-07T12:02:24","modified_gmt":"2012-03-07T10:02:24","slug":"ihracat-issizlik-ve-enflasyon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ihracat-issizlik-ve-enflasyon\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130hracat, \u0130\u015fsizlik ve Enflasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ne oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcce\u011fine ili\u015fkin en son tahmin ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde IMF taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndakilere g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri s\u00f6z konusu. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak 2012&#8217;de y\u00fczde 3.3 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla 0.5 puan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1449863800\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bizim a\u00e7\u0131m\u0131zdan daha \u00f6nemlisi, \u015f\u00fcphesiz, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yar\u0131ya yak\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z Avrupa Birli\u011fi. 2011 y\u00fczde 1.6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyen Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.1 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi bekleniyor. Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme tahmini ise y\u00fczde 0.5 d\u00fczeyinde. D\u00fcn 2011&#8217;in d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, hem Euro B\u00f6lgesi hem de bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak Avrupa Birli\u011fi bir \u00e7eyrek \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 0.3 oran\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fcler.<\/p>\n<p>Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin de 2011&#8217;e k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcyecekleri tahmin ediliyor. Fazla rakama bo\u011fmaya gerek yok; ihracat\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri sevimli de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 as\u0131l olarak iki ana para birimi cinsinden yap\u0131yoruz: Dolar ve euro. \u00d6nce euro cinsinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracat\u0131n geli\u015fimine bak\u0131yorum. Grafik 1&#8217;de her ay itibar\u0131yla son \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n euro cinsinden ihracat\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131n\u0131n hareketleri g\u00f6steriliyor. Ele al\u0131nan d\u00f6nem 2007&#8217;nin Mart ay\u0131 ile 2012&#8217;nin Ocak ay\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nem. Grafik 2&#8217;de ise yine \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k toplamlar\u0131n bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fimleri yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Euro cinsinden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ihracat\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n Euro B\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkelerine y\u00f6nelik oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebiliriz. B\u00f6lge ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkiledi\u011fi net bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Grafik 1&#8217;de euro cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n 2011 ortalar\u0131ndan bu yana ayn\u0131 d\u00fczeyde seyretti\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Grafik 2 ise, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla, euro cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Dolar cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n geli\u015fimi Grafik 3&#8217;te, y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fimleri ise Grafik 4&#8217;te yer al\u0131yor. Yine \u00fc\u00e7er ayl\u0131k toplamlara ve bu toplamlar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimlerine bak\u0131yorum. \u0130ki nokta dikkat \u00e7ekici: Dolar cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z hen\u00fcz kriz \u00f6ncesindeki d\u00fczeyine ula\u015famam\u0131\u015f. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla de\u011fi\u015fimi, euro cinsinden ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde de\u011fi\u015fiminin belirgin bi\u00e7imde \u00fczerinde.<\/p>\n<p>2012&#8217;de ne oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcce\u011fimizin temelde iki unsura ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131m: \u0130hracat performans\u0131m\u0131z ve uluslararas\u0131 risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131. \u0130hracat performans\u0131m\u0131z do\u011frudan \u00fcretim d\u00fczeyimizi etkiliyor. \u0130hracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131na 2011&#8217;deki kadar olumlu etki yapmayaca\u011f\u0131 ortada. Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 ise T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye gelen ve T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;den \u00e7\u0131kan d\u0131\u015f fon miktar\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor. \u015eirketlerimizin ve bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lanabilme olanaklar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor. B\u00f6ylelikle d\u00f6viz kuru ve faiz hareketleri olu\u015fuyor. Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 \u00fczerine olas\u0131 etkilerini daha \u00f6nce tart\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131m, ayr\u0131ca a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da enflasyonu incelerken de de\u011finece\u011fim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2427179255\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130hracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerine eskisi kadar olumlu etki yapmayacak olmas\u0131n\u0131n istihdama da yans\u0131malar\u0131 olacak. S\u0131ra i\u015fsizlikteki geli\u015fmeleri incelemeye geldi.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fsizlik<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nceki hafta 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalama i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Krizin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda etkisinin en \u00fcst d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 14 olmu\u015ftu. \u0130ki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 9.8&#8217;e geriledi. Daha \u00f6nemlisi tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131. \u00d6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var; iki y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla be\u015f puan azalarak y\u00fczde 12.4&#8217;e indi.<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama rakamlar i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131ndaki \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc yeterince sergileyemiyorlar. Ayl\u0131k i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131na bakmakta da yarar var. Grafik 5&#8217;te mevsim ve takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131 yer al\u0131yor. Bu defa ele al\u0131nan d\u00f6nem Ocak 2005 ile Kas\u0131m 2011 aras\u0131. Krizden bu yana i\u015fsizlikte ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekten \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2945203787\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bu \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 ve sevindirici d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6nemli yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 arka plana itmemeli. \u0130ki yap\u0131sal sorunumuz var. Birincisi, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. \u0130kincisi, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilecek bir d\u00fczeyde kat\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. Krizden bu yana ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda &#8220;Hangi kat\u0131l\u0131k?&#8221; diye sorulabilir. S\u00f6z\u00fcn\u00fc etti\u011fim kat\u0131l\u0131k, kriz ya\u015fanmayan &#8216;normal&#8217; d\u00f6nemler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli.<\/p>\n<p>Son iki y\u0131lda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen olumlu geli\u015fmeler kat\u0131lma oran\u0131na da yans\u0131d\u0131. \u0130ki y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 iki puan artt\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 49.9 oldu. Ne var ki uluslararas\u0131 standartlara g\u00f6re hala i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. \u00d6nemli bir \u00fcretim potansiyelimizi kullanam\u0131yoruz. Arkas\u0131ndaki temel neden kad\u0131nlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131: Sadece y\u00fczde 28.8.<\/p>\n<p>Kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stermek i\u00e7in y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalamalara ve &#8216;normal&#8217; y\u0131llara bak\u0131yorum. Krizin etkisiyle i\u015fsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2008-2010 d\u00f6nemini d\u0131\u015flarsam, birbirleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir verilerin bulundu\u011fu 2005 ve sonras\u0131ndaki durum \u015f\u00f6yle: Y\u00fczde 10.6 ile y\u00fczde 9.8 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131. 2011&#8217;den \u00f6nceki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 2006&#8217;da: Y\u00fczde 10.2.<\/p>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 7 oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlan\u0131rsa, sorun daha net bi\u00e7imde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. 1960&#8217;tan bu yana ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir d\u00f6nemde, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fczeyinde \u00e7ak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kalm\u0131\u015f. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin en iyimser b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin bile y\u00fczde 7&#8217;nin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alarak 2012&#8217;de i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemek gerekir. K\u0131sacas\u0131, 2012&#8217;de ayn\u0131 kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bir de uluslararas\u0131 k\u0131yaslama yapay\u0131m. Bu defa 2005-2011 d\u00f6nemini bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak ele al\u0131yorum. Tablo 1&#8217;de yer alan &#8216;di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler&#8217;, G-7 grubu ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeleri ifade ediyor. G-7 \u00fclkelerinin hem grup ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 verdim hem de yedi \u00fclkeden d\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fc ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6sterdim. Yedi b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi i\u00e7inde en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Japonya&#8217;da, en y\u00fckse\u011fi ise Fransa&#8217;da.<\/p>\n<p>Tablonun verdi\u011fi mesaj \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fcksek. \u00dcstelik, kriz nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in dikkate almay\u0131p tablodaki di\u011fer \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in dikkate alsak da, durum de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Elbette geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na sahip \u00fclkeler bulabiliriz. Mesela \u0130spanya. Ama o \u0130spanya&#8217;n\u0131n sorunu; \u0130spanya&#8217;n\u0131n ya da benzer bir \u00fclkenin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bizim onlar\u0131nkinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na sahip olmam\u0131z, bizim i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Enflasyon<\/p>\n<p>T\u0131pk\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 gibi enflasyon oran\u0131 da bir s\u00fcredir y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fczeyinde bir kat\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor. Son d\u00f6rt ayd\u0131r durum b\u00f6yle. Son olarak, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k t\u00fcketici enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir azal\u0131\u015fla y\u00fczde 10.4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Ancak enflasyondaki bu kat\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ge\u00e7ici olmas\u0131 ihtimali az de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ihtimalin y\u00fcksekli\u011fi ile uluslararas\u0131 risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 aras\u0131nda yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki var.\u00a0 2011&#8217;in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki son derece olumsuz hava, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 likidite \u00f6nlemleri ile yerini daha olumlu bir havaya b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u00d6nce olumlu havan\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi durumunda enflasyondaki olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri tart\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131m.<\/p>\n<p>Olumlu ortam risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, lira \u00fczerinde de\u011ferlenme bask\u0131s\u0131 olu\u015fabilir. Salt enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iyi haber bu. Sermaye hareketlerinde 2010 ve 2011&#8217;in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla azalma ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir ama bu azalma keskin olmaz. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 Orta Vadeli Program&#8217;da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen d\u00fczeye yak\u0131n bir yerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. B\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n korkuldu\u011fu gibi d\u00fc\u015fmeyecek olmas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la k\u0131yasla \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalacak olmas\u0131 nedeniyle, fiyatlar \u00fczerine belirgin bir talep bask\u0131s\u0131 beklememek gerekir. Bu olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeler enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda son aylarda g\u00f6zlenen yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru e\u011filim enflasyonu y\u00fckseltecek y\u00f6nde etki yapar.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00fc\u00e7 farkl\u0131 etkinin neti enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00f6nde olur. Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n beklentilerine uygun bi\u00e7imde y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonda belirgin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6rebiliriz. Bu durumda, olumlu havan\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi ko\u015fuluyla, enflasyonun y\u0131lsonunda hedefin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde ama \u015fu andaki d\u00fczeyinin alt\u0131nda bir yerde olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek gerekiyor. Y\u00fczde 7-8 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ula\u015f\u0131labilir gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da s\u0131ralad\u0131\u011f\u0131m olas\u0131 geli\u015fmelerin mevcut olumlu havan\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi halinde ge\u00e7erli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatay\u0131m. Ayr\u0131ca &#8216;olumlu&#8217; derken bu olumlulu\u011fun 2011&#8217;in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131na k\u0131yasla oldu\u011funun da alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izeyim. \u00d6te yandan bu olumlulu\u011fun arkas\u0131ndaki temel neden olan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n uygulamalar\u0131yla sadece zaman kazan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, temel sorunlar\u0131n ise hala \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bekledi\u011fini de eklemek gerekiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Son bir hafta i\u00e7inde piyasalarda gerginli\u011fin bir miktar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat etmek laz\u0131m. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, olumlu havan\u0131n yerini tekrar gerginli\u011fe b\u0131rakmas\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n bor\u00e7 takas\u0131 nas\u0131l sonlanacak? Yunanistan Euro B\u00f6lgesi&#8217;nden \u00e7\u0131kmak zorunda kalacak m\u0131? \u00c7\u0131karsa ortal\u0131k ne derece kar\u0131\u015facak? Portekiz, \u0130rlanda, \u0130spanya ve \u0130talya tekrar sorunlar ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015facaklar m\u0131? Bir ara bu k\u00f6\u015fede tart\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m \u00c7in&#8217;deki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimali artacak m\u0131?<\/p>\n<p>Bu sorular\u0131n net yan\u0131tlar\u0131 yok. \u00c7ok fazla belirsizlik var. Peki, olumlu hava tekrar bozulursa ne olur? Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 tekrar d\u00fc\u015fece\u011finden T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;ye y\u00f6nelik d\u0131\u015f fon giri\u015fi azal\u0131r ve d\u00f6viz kuru yukar\u0131ya do\u011fru gider. Bu, enflasyonu art\u0131racak y\u00f6nde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ayn\u0131 ortamda b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi i\u00e7in talep bask\u0131s\u0131 iyice azal\u0131r. Bu da enflasyonu azaltacak bir geli\u015fme olur. Hangisi a\u011f\u0131r basar? D\u00f6viz kurunun olumsuz etkisinin a\u011f\u0131r basmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemek gerekir. K\u0131sacas\u0131, b\u00f6yle bir ortamda enflasyon \u015fu an ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczeyin alt\u0131na inmez.<\/p>\n<p>Ortalama i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131: 2005-2011 (%)<\/p>\n<p>G-7 \u00fclkeleri\u00a06.8<\/p>\n<p>Japonya\u00a04.5<\/p>\n<p>ABD\u00a06.9<\/p>\n<p>Almanya\u00a08.4<\/p>\n<p>Fransa\u00a09.1<\/p>\n<p>Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u00a08.5<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler\u00a04.5<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u00a011.1<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin ne oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcce\u011fine ili\u015fkin en son tahmin ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde IMF taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131ndakilere g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri s\u00f6z konusu. D\u00fcnya&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12508","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12508","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12508"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12508\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12508"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12508"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12508"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}