{"id":12483,"date":"2012-03-07T09:16:32","date_gmt":"2012-03-07T07:16:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12483"},"modified":"2012-03-07T09:16:46","modified_gmt":"2012-03-07T07:16:46","slug":"subatta-enflasyon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/subatta-enflasyon\/","title":{"rendered":"\u015eubat\u2019ta Enflasyon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 seyahatim gene ilgin\u00e7 g\u00fcnlere denk geldi. En \u00e7ok g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcy\u00fc TL sembol\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kamuoyu \u00e7abuk kutupla\u015f\u0131r. An\u0131nda be\u011fenenler-be\u011fenmeyenler b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc. Destekleyen tarafta kald\u0131m.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1994695280\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00dclke paralar\u0131n\u0131n bir sembolle g\u00f6sterilmesi eski gelenektir. Tam anlamad\u0131m ama galiba tutucular \u201cTL\u201c ile devam edilmesini tercih ediyor. Bir s\u00fcre yad\u0131rgansa bile \u00e7abuk al\u0131\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na eminim.<\/p>\n<p>Esas bombay\u0131 IMF patlatt\u0131. G-20\u2019nin ocak toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 0,4 tahmin etmi\u015fti. Yeni G-20 raporunda y\u00fczde 2,3\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Arada sadece bir ay var. Bu ne perhiz, bu ne lahana tur\u015fusu!<\/p>\n<p>Ocak sonunda \u201cIMF\u2019in 2012 tahminlerini ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bulmuyorum\u201d demi\u015ftim. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc de\u011fi\u015ftirmedim. Ayr\u0131ca bu t\u00fcr tahmin virajlar\u0131 IMF\u2019in T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini okumakta \u00e7ok zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131na kan\u0131tt\u0131r. Ba\u015fka (komplocu) tefsirler de olabilir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Makul bir enflasyon<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u015eubat enflasyonuna yeti\u015firim demi\u015fim. Maalesef bir g\u00fcn geciktim. 2011\u2019in sonunda t\u00fcketici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n tekrar iki haneye t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 enflasyon korkular\u0131n\u0131 canland\u0131rd\u0131. Enflasyon tehdidinin azalmas\u0131 \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015fi\u201d kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eubatta makul bir enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu. Piyasa t\u00fcketici ve \u00fcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda &#8211; T\u00dcFE ve \u00dcFE &#8211; y\u00fczde 0,6 civar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f bekliyordu. T\u00dcFE tam tuttu: y\u00fczde 0,6 artt\u0131. \u00dcFE tam \u015fa\u015ft\u0131: y\u00fczde 0,1 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda iki enflasyon da ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re geriledi: T\u00dcFE y\u00fczde 10,4; \u00dcFE y\u00fczde 9,2. Bu arada \u00fcretici fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sekiz ayd\u0131r ilk kez tek-haneye d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin (\u015eubat 2011) alt\u0131na indi\u011fini belirtelim.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4290031345\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u0130ki kritik sorumuz var. Bir: T\u00fcketici enflasyonu \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda tekrar t\u0131rman\u0131r ve ocaktaki y\u00fczde 10,6\u2019yi a\u015far m\u0131? \u00c7ok muhtemeldir. \u0130lkbaharda y\u00fczde 11\u2019e yakla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyorum.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki: Y\u0131l sonu enflasyonu ne olur? Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131m tahmin y\u00fczde 6,5\u2019tu. \u0130lk iki ay sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bu tahminle uyumlu geldi. Yani \u015fimdilik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 ya da yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon ihtiyac\u0131 duymuyorum.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u201c\u00c7ekirdek\u201d e\u011filimi<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00c2detimizi bozmadan y\u0131ll\u0131k kira art\u0131\u015f\u0131na bakal\u0131m. \u00dc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r y\u00fczde 4,7 d\u00fczeyinde sabitlendi. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n hesaplad\u0131\u011f\u0131 temel hizmetler enflasyonu ise ge\u00e7en aya g\u00f6re s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oranda azalarak y\u00fczde 6,3\u2019e geriledi.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3963712910\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/fotograf.gazetevatan.com\/newpics\/news\/060320121954281670227_3.jpg\" alt=\"\" align=\"right\" \/>Piyasa \u201c\u00e7ekirdek enflasyona\u201d odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. T\u00dc\u0130K dokuz farkl\u0131 \u00d6zel Kapsaml\u0131 T\u00fcketim G\u00f6stergesi yay\u0131nl\u0131yor. Bunlardan \u00d6KTG-I \u00f6zellikle izleniyor. Ocakta y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 8,4\u2019e y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. \u015eubatta y\u00fczde 8,1\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n<p>Grafi\u011fin y\u00f6ntemini a\u00e7\u0131klayal\u0131m. Mevsim etkisi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k ortalama y\u0131lland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Yani \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131n temposunun bir y\u0131l devam etmesinin yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 enflasyon hesaplan\u0131yor. Resim bence nettir; \u201c\u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun\u201d e\u011filimi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fcd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 seyahatim gene ilgin\u00e7 g\u00fcnlere denk geldi. En \u00e7ok g\u00fcr\u00fclt\u00fcy\u00fc TL sembol\u00fc \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kamuoyu \u00e7abuk kutupla\u015f\u0131r. An\u0131nda be\u011fenenler-be\u011fenmeyenler b\u00f6l\u00fcnd\u00fc. Destekleyen tarafta kald\u0131m. \u00dclke&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12483","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12483","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12483"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12483\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12483"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12483"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12483"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}