{"id":12384,"date":"2012-03-05T11:10:03","date_gmt":"2012-03-05T09:10:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12384"},"modified":"2012-03-05T11:10:03","modified_gmt":"2012-03-05T09:10:03","slug":"kotu-haber-simdiden-cumaya-odaklandik","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kotu-haber-simdiden-cumaya-odaklandik\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00f6t\u00fc Haber: \u201c\u015eimdiden cumaya odakland\u0131k\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\" align=\"center\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (AMB) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 likidite ihalesi ve FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunum oldu. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 bankan\u0131n kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihalede 530 milyar euroluk kredi a\u00e7arak beklentiye yak\u0131n bir rakama ula\u015ft\u0131. \u0130hale sonras\u0131 bu kez g\u00f6zler FED ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ben Bernanke\u2019nin temsilciler meclisinde yapaca\u011f\u0131 sunuma odakland\u0131. Piyasalar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal geni\u015fleme mesaj\u0131na al\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran Bernanke\u2019nin bu sefer bu konuya de\u011finmemesi moralleri bozdu. En b\u00fcy\u00fck etki de likidite seviyesi ile fiyatlanan de\u011ferli madenlerde ya\u015fand\u0131. Hafta i\u00e7inde 1,790 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6ren bir ons alt\u0131n 1,688 dolara kadar geriledikten sonra 1,7000\/1,720 dolar aras\u0131nda dengeye geldi. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">B\u00fcy\u00fcme yoksa prim de yok<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2964799615\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bug\u00fcne kadar likidite operasyonlar\u0131 ile ayakta kalan piyasalar i\u00e7in art\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 referans olacak. Bir s\u00fcreli\u011fine likidite art\u0131\u015f\u0131 haberlerinin en az\u0131ndan Avrupa ve AB taraf\u0131nda ask\u0131ya al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. AB\u2019de enflasyonda hafif hafif k\u0131p\u0131rdanmalar\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131k. Buna bir de petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 eklersek, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan bir s\u00fcre yeni likidite ihalesi yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ya da farkl\u0131 kanallardan yeni parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmesini beklemek bizce fazla iyimser. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupa Merkez Banaks\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131 var. Bu ortamda AMB\u2019nin faiz indirimi yapmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemiyoruz. Aksine karar sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lacak a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda enflasyon vurgusu \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kabilir ve bu durum piyasalar\u0131 olumsuz etkileyebilir. ABD taraf\u0131nda ise a\u00e7\u0131klanan olumlu veriler, parasal geni\u015flemeden yana olan Bernanke\u2019nin bile geri ad\u0131m atmas\u0131na neden oldu. Veriler bu \u015fekilde devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece FED\u2019in \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parasal geni\u015fleme mesaj\u0131n\u0131 ask\u0131ya almas\u0131 beklenebilir. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan olumsuz veri parasal geni\u015flemedir alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zellikle b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin verilerde i\u015flemeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Bu kapsamda ABD\u2019de bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak istihdam verilerinde olumlu verilerin rallinin devam\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Olumsuz verilerde ise sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 artabilir. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Endeksler a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 al\u0131mda <\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Son iki ayd\u0131r sa\u011flanan y\u00fcksek primlerin ard\u0131ndan, hisse senedi endekslerinde ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta ciddi bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fck. ABD\u2019de ve Avrupa\u2019da endeks grafiklerine bak\u0131lacak olursa ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta bu yorgunluk \u00e7ok net bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Bu s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma ilerleyen g\u00fcnlerde \u00e7ok sert hareketlerin olabilece\u011finin i\u015faretini veriyor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm bu hareketin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olma ihtimalinin daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu i\u015faret etse de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz iki hafta i\u00e7inde zirvede olu\u015fan kanal yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc k\u0131r\u0131lacak olursa yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir deneme daha gelebilir. Bu k\u0131r\u0131lman\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilecek tek verinin ise ABD\u2019de a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan istihdam rakamlar\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Haftan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanacak bu verilere odaklan\u0131yor olmam\u0131z, endekslerin hareket alan\u0131n\u0131 daralt\u0131c\u0131 bir etki yaratacakt\u0131r. S\u0131k\u0131\u015fan piyasalarda ise g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde zaman zaman nedeni olmayan \u00e7ok sert hareketler olabilir. Bu nedenle bu haftan\u0131n \u00f6zellikle g\u00fcn i\u00e7i al\u0131m sat\u0131m yapanlar i\u00e7in zor bir hafta olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Enflasyon \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmad\u0131<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bug\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan ocak ay\u0131 enflasyon rakamlar\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz ya\u015fanmad\u0131. T\u00fcketici enflasyonu \u015eubat\u2019ta beklentiler dahilinde %0,56 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00dcretici fiyatlar\u0131nda ise %0,09\u2019luk bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 k\u0131smen s\u00fcrpriz oldu. Enflasyon oranlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan ziyade kurdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkili oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda etkisinin hissedilmesi daha muhtemel. \u015euan i\u00e7in enflasyon verilerinin TCMB\u2019yi destekler nitelikte gelmeye devam ediyor olmas\u0131 piyasalar i\u00e7in olumlu. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Petrol fiyatlar\u0131 stres yarat\u0131yor<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Suudi Arabistan\u2019da bir petrol boru hatt\u0131nda patlama oldu\u011funa dair haberler Brent petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131 kritik 127 dolar direncinin \u00fczerine att\u0131. Haberin yalanlanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan fiyatlar tekrar 124 dolar civar\u0131na indi. Bu haber petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki en ufak bir geli\u015fmeye kar\u015f\u0131 bile olan hassasiyetini g\u00f6steriyor. \u0130lerleyen g\u00fcnlerde \u0130ran konusunda gerginlik t\u0131rmanacak ve petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n ana damarlardan biri olan H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019ndan petrol ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flanamayacak olursa, bir petrol krizi ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve fiyatlar\u0131n tarihi zirvelerin \u00fczerine de \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bizleri \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmayacakt\u0131r. Uzun s\u00fcredir \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n n\u00fckleer tesislerini vurma tehdidinde bulunan \u0130srail Ba\u015fbakan\u0131 Netanyahu bug\u00fcn bir kez daha Ba\u015fkan Obama\u2019y\u0131 kendi fikirleri konusunda ikna etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. \u0130kilinin 9. g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesi olacak bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmenin ana konusunun \u0130ran olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnlerdir t\u00fcm medyaya yans\u0131m\u0131\u015f durumda. G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme sonras\u0131 \u0130ran konusunda Obama a\u011f\u0131r basar ve daha itidalli a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ortaya \u00e7\u0131karsa petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gev\u015feme ya\u015fanabilir. Bu da piyasalar i\u00e7in olumlu bir ortam olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir. Aksi durumda ise Brent petrol\u00fcn 127 dolar\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli ortam sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r. Bu da k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck risk demektir. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3586007473\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Bu hafta \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kacaklar<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Enflasyon verilerinin ard\u0131ndan bu hafta i\u00e7eride Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 10:00\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan ocak ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretimi verilerini takip edece\u011fiz. D\u0131\u015far\u0131da ise haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli verisi ABD\u2019den gelecek olan istihdam rakamlar\u0131. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc 15:15\u2019ta a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan ADP \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r istihdam\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nemli olan Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 15:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 haftan\u0131n son g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasalarda \u00e7ok sert hareketlerin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olabilir. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 13:00\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan Almanya sanayi \u00fcretimi ve Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc 07:30\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olan \u00c7in\u2019in sanayi \u00fcretimi de izleyece\u011fimiz \u00f6nemli veriler aras\u0131nda.\u00a0 <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">\u00dczeyir DO\u011eAN \/ Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">MARBA\u015e Menkul De\u011ferler<br \/>\n<\/span><\/span><\/strong><strong><a href=\"mailto:uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri;font-size: small\">uzeyir.dogan@marbasmenkul.com.tr<\/span><\/a><br \/>\n<\/strong><strong><span style=\"font-size: small\"><span style=\"font-family: Calibri\">Telefon: (0212) 286 30 00<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n ana g\u00fcndemi Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (AMB) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 likidite ihalesi ve FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke\u2019nin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sunum oldu. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 800 bankan\u0131n kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4711,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12384","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12384","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12384"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12384\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12384"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12384"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12384"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}