{"id":12329,"date":"2012-03-03T09:25:08","date_gmt":"2012-03-03T07:25:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12329"},"modified":"2012-03-03T09:25:17","modified_gmt":"2012-03-03T07:25:17","slug":"issizlige-iliskin-bazi-sevimsiz-gercekler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/issizlige-iliskin-bazi-sevimsiz-gercekler\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130\u015fsizli\u011fe \u0130li\u015fkin Baz\u0131 Sevimsiz Ger\u00e7ekler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10 ve civar\u0131 neredeyse bir kader haline gelmi\u015f durumda, gelmemeli.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3568753217\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalama i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Krizin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda etkisinin en \u00fcst d\u00fczeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 14 olmu\u015ftu. \u0130ki y\u0131l i\u00e7inde keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 9,8\u2019e geriledi. Daha \u00f6nemlisi tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sekt\u00f6rlerdeki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, onda da \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var: \u0130ki y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla be\u015f puan azalarak y\u00fczde 12,4\u2019e indi.<br \/>\n\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131zdaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sevindirici. Ancak bu olumlu geli\u015fme \u00f6nemli yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 arka plana itmemeli. \u0130lk yap\u0131sal sorunumuz, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lan ki\u015filerin toplam \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir n\u00fcfusa oran\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlanan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131. Son iki y\u0131lda i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen olumlu geli\u015fmeler kat\u0131lma oran\u0131na da yans\u0131d\u0131. \u0130ki y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 iki puan artt\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 49,9 oldu. Ne var ki uluslararas\u0131 standartlara g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle \u00f6nemli bir \u00fcretim potansiyelimizi kullanam\u0131yoruz. Arkas\u0131ndaki temel neden \u00f6nemli bir yap\u0131sal sorunumuzu ortaya koyuyor. Kad\u0131nlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck: Son y\u0131llardaki art\u0131\u015fa kar\u015f\u0131n sadece y\u00fczde 28,8.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Kat\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6steriyor\u00a0<img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/i.radikal.com.tr\/150x113\/2012\/03\/03\/fft16_mf930301.Jpeg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130kinci yap\u0131sal sorunumuz i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fcksek bir d\u00fczeyde kat\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermesi. Krizin etkisiyle i\u015fsizli\u011fin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2008-2010 d\u00f6nemini d\u0131\u015flarsak, birbirleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131labilir verilerin bulundu\u011fu 2005 ve sonras\u0131ndaki durum \u015f\u00f6yle: Y\u00fczde 10,6 ile y\u00fczde 9,8 aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131. 2011\u2019den \u00f6nceki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 2006\u2019da: Y\u00fczde 10,2. Tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda da durum farkl\u0131 de\u011fil. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 2011\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015feni. Ama ondan sonra gelen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 sadece 0.2 puan daha y\u00fcksek (2007\u2019de).<br \/>\nBunca rakam, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fcksek bir d\u00fczeyde kalmakta inat\u00e7\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor bize. Dikkat ederseniz 2008-2010\u2019daki y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlikleri d\u0131\u015flayarak bu sonuca ula\u015f\u0131yorum. Bu y\u0131llar d\u0131\u015flanarak 2005\u2019ten bu yana geriye kalan y\u0131llara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fczde 7 oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131rsam, durumun daha da olumsuz oldu\u011fu ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar. Yani, 1960\u2019tan bu yana ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde bir oranda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz bir d\u00f6nemde i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 10 d\u00fczeyinde \u00e7ak\u0131lm\u0131\u015f kalm\u0131\u015f. 2012 y\u0131l\u0131na ili\u015fkin en iyimser b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinin bile y\u00fczde 7\u2019nin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dikkate alarak 2012\u2019de i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 beklemek gerekir. K\u0131sacas\u0131, i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10 ve civar\u0131 neredeyse bir kader haline gelmi\u015f durumda; gelmemeli.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fcksek\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nBir de uluslararas\u0131 k\u0131yaslama yapay\u0131m. Bu defa 2005-2011 d\u00f6nemini bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak ele al\u0131yorum. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 tabloda veriyorum. Tabloda yer alan \u2018di\u011fer geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler\u2019, G-7 grubu ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeleri ifade ediyor. G-7 \u00fclkelerinin hem grup ortalamas\u0131n\u0131 verdim hem de yedi \u00fclkeden d\u00f6rd\u00fcn\u00fc ayr\u0131ca g\u00f6sterdim. Yedi b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomi i\u00e7inde en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 Japonya\u2019da, en y\u00fckse\u011fi ise Fransa\u2019da.<br \/>\nTablonun verdi\u011fi mesaj \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fcksek. \u00dcstelik, kriz nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik oranlar\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in dikkate almay\u0131p tablodaki di\u011fer \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in dikkate alsak da durum de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Elbette geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerden c\u0131mb\u0131zla \u00e7ekip \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na sahip \u00fclkeler bulabiliriz. Mesela \u0130spanya. Ama o \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n sorunu; \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n ya da benzer bir \u00fclkenin i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bizim onlar\u0131nkinden d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131na sahip olmam\u0131z, bizim i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini de\u011fi\u015ftirmiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10 ve civar\u0131 neredeyse bir kader haline gelmi\u015f durumda, gelmemeli. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalama i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Krizin i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131nda etkisinin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12329"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12329\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}