{"id":12291,"date":"2012-03-02T09:31:04","date_gmt":"2012-03-02T07:31:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12291"},"modified":"2012-03-02T09:31:13","modified_gmt":"2012-03-02T07:31:13","slug":"carsi-karisti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/carsi-karisti\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c7ar\u015f\u0131 Kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131lamalar falan derken\u00a0 son bir iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ortal\u0131k biraz kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck dilde bu ba\u011flamda kullan\u0131lan ho\u015f bir deyim var. Bu gibi durumlar &#8220;\u00e7ar\u015f\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131&#8221; diye tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Bu &#8220;kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131&#8221; s\u00f6zc\u00fc\u011f\u00fc\u00a0 belirsizlikler artt\u0131 anlam\u0131nda kullan\u0131l\u0131yor. Biraz ihtiyata davet de var galiba i\u00e7eri\u011finde.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3123108140\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda, geli\u015fmelerin ana ekseninde \u00f6nemli bir kayma yok. Hem k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte hem de T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. K\u00fcresel resesyon \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011findeki bir krizden \u00f6yle pat diye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re arada bir \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 ola\u011fan kar\u015f\u0131lamak gerekir diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Bizde \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131n\u0131n kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 biraz daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. \u0130ki tane a\u00e7\u0131klanan veri var. Birisi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonu itibariyle istihdam ve i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131. Bu verilerde \u00f6nemli yeni bir bilgi yok denilebilir. Bir \u00f6nceki Aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. Ama i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n tek haneli y\u00fczde 9 civar\u0131na indikten sonra bu d\u00fczeylerde tak\u0131l\u0131 kalmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Bunun daha \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yorumu \u00f6nemli. \u0130lk yorumlar i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcr\u00fcyor olmas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fareti olarak alg\u0131lanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Bu da bilinmeyen bir \u015fey de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<p>Akl\u0131 biraz kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bilgi d\u0131\u015f ticaret say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131ndan geldi. Burada da bak\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken iki boyut var. Birisi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re durumun ne oldu\u011fu meselesi. Bu ba\u011flamda d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli\u00a0 bir daralma oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu da b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n i\u015fareti olarak yorumland\u0131. \u00d6te yandan, Ocak ay\u0131 verileri d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n beklenenin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ima etti\u011fi durum \u00f6nceki yorumlardan farkl\u0131 olmak durumunda. B\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki yava\u015flaman\u0131n son bir iki ayda h\u0131z kesmi\u015f olabilece\u011fini ima eden \u00f6teki verilerle de tutarl\u0131 bir durum bu. Son istihdam verileri sert ini\u015f tezlerine destek vermiyor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. anlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z. Akl\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rabilecek olan da i\u015fin bu yan\u0131 i\u015fte.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7ar\u015f\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131da i\u00e7eridekinden daha \u00e7ok kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131 denilebilir. Kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan da para ve likidite alan\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler ve de\u011ferlendirmeler. K\u00fcresel krizden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde en \u00f6nemli etkenin neredeyse k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen parasal gev\u015feme oldu\u011fu biliniyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6nc\u00fc rol\u00fcn\u00fc de Amerikan Merkez Bankas\u0131 (FED) oynuyor.<\/p>\n<p>FED Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Bernanke para miktar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rma ve faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde tutma politikas\u0131nda \u0131srarl\u0131 oldu\u011fu izlenimi veriyordu. FED&#8217;in\u00a0 bu politikay\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131l\u0131 da kavrayacak \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi ifade ediliyordu. Gev\u015fek para politikas\u0131nda \u0131srar FED&#8217;in daha \u00f6nce ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen iki parasal gev\u015feme (QE) hamlesinin ard\u0131ndan bir \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn (QE 3) gelece\u011fi beklentisini hap canl\u0131 tutuyordu. Bernanke de bu beklentiyi zay\u0131flatmak ad\u0131na\u00a0 bir \u015fey yapmak niyetinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 izlenimini veriyordu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-827278607\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Son sat\u0131rlarda\u00a0 &#8220;ge\u00e7mi\u015f zaman&#8221; kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131 fark etmi\u015finizdir san\u0131r\u0131m. Bunu bilerek yap\u0131yorum. Zira hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri parasal gev\u015feme h\u00fclyalar\u0131 sanki masal olacakm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bernanke&#8217;nin Kongrede yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalardaki ihtiyat dozu\u00a0 ABD&#8217;de enflasyon kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n canlanmak \u00fczere oldu\u011fu izlenimi veriyor. Parasal gev\u015femeyi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizi iki y\u0131l daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme politikas\u0131ndan geri d\u00f6n\u00fclebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcren bir geli\u015fme bu.<\/p>\n<p>QE 3 bekleyen piyasalar\u0131n bir anda\u00a0 adeta so\u011fuk du\u015fa girmi\u015f gibi olduklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. E\u011fer keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f getirirse FED&#8217;in bu son hamlesinin sadece ABD&#8217;de de\u011fil k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte de \u00f6nemli sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7ar\u015f\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131 dedi\u011fimde esas kastetti\u011fim geli\u015fme bu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131lamalar falan derken\u00a0 son bir iki g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde ortal\u0131k biraz kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. G\u00fcnl\u00fck dilde bu ba\u011flamda kullan\u0131lan ho\u015f bir deyim var.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12291","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12291","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12291"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12291\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}