Son d\u00f6nemlerde T\u00fcrkiye’de yerle\u015fik ki\u015filerin d\u00f6viz tevdiat hesaplar\u0131 (DTH) konjonkt\u00fcrdeki de\u011fi\u015fimlere kar\u015f\u0131 dura\u011fanl\u0131k sergiliyor. Halen 100 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda olan DTH’lerin bu e\u011filimini grafikten de izlemek olas\u0131.
\nFaizin Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n temel politika arac\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 zamanlarda, d\u00f6viz fiyatlar\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketler ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131nca DTH hesaplar\u0131nda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeler ba\u015flar, faizin cazibesiyle TL’ye ge\u00e7i\u015f h\u0131zlan\u0131rd\u0131.
\nBu e\u011filim 2011 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n sonlar\u0131ndan sonra yok oldu. D\u00fcnyada ve T\u00fcrkiye’de riskler ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ve TL’nin de\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda DTH’ler ge\u00e7mi\u015fin tam aksine azalmay\u0131p artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.
\nDTH’lerle ilgili bir ba\u015fka g\u00f6sterge de bu hesaplar\u0131n geni\u015f anlaml\u0131 para arz\u0131na (M2) oran\u0131. Bu oran ge\u00e7mi\u015fte s\u00fcrekli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterirken, son bir y\u0131ld\u0131r artma e\u011filimine girdi.
\nK\u00fcresel kriz d\u00f6neminde de s\u00fcregiden DTH\/M2 oran\u0131 azal\u0131\u015f\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli neden, para arz\u0131ndaki (M2) y\u00fckseli\u015fin daha fazla olmas\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131. 2011 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n likiditeyi daraltmas\u0131na paralel olarak DTH\/M2 oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flayarak y\u00fczde 27’lere kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131
\ng\u00f6zl\u00fcyoruz.
\nBu tablo bize \u00fc\u00e7 noktay\u0131 i\u015faretliyor.
\nBirincisi, 100 milyar dolar d\u00fczeyinde “kemikle\u015fmi\u015f” DTH varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 finans sisteminde mevcudiyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ne azal\u0131yor, ne de art\u0131yor.
\n\u0130kincisi, ileriki y\u0131llarda da M2’deki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fczde DTH\/M2 oran\u0131 zaman i\u00e7inde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya do\u011fru y\u00f6nelecek. Ancak bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 25’in alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmeyece\u011fini de hesaba katmak gerekir.
\n\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc ise, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin faizleri ne pahas\u0131na olursa olsun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme niyeti devam ettik\u00e7e, DTH’lerin ekonominin t\u00fcrb\u00fclansa girdi\u011fi d\u00f6nemlerde TL’nin fiyat\u0131n\u0131 stabilize etme fonksiyonu g\u00f6zlenmeyecek.<\/p>