{"id":12221,"date":"2012-03-01T09:21:18","date_gmt":"2012-03-01T07:21:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12221"},"modified":"2012-03-01T09:21:26","modified_gmt":"2012-03-01T07:21:26","slug":"ocak-dis-ticareti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ocak-dis-ticareti\/","title":{"rendered":"Ocak D\u0131\u015f Ticareti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l vadeli ve y\u00fczde 1 faizli fonlama ihalesine bankalardan 560 milyar dolar talep geldi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yani euro b\u00f6lgesi likidite bollu\u011funda y\u00fcz\u00fcyor. Piyasa beklentileri ile uyumludur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3072628928\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Avrupa borsalar\u0131 olumlu etkilendi. Pariteye etkisi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kald\u0131. Son bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda 1.34 civar\u0131nda seyrediyordu. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u0130MKB y\u00fckseldi. D\u00f6viz sepeti 2.04 TL\u2019ye geriledi. New York\u2019ta ise Dow Jones endeksi 13 bin d\u00fczeyinde tutunmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Petrol piyasas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kara bulutlar bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc da\u011f\u0131laca\u011fa benzemiyor. \u00d6zellikle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n H\u00fcrm\u00fcz Bo\u011faz\u0131\u2019n\u0131 tanker trafi\u011fine kapatmas\u0131 ihtimali herkesi tedirgin ediyor. Petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye faturas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Verilere bak\u0131yoruz<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ocak d\u0131\u015f ticareti T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daralman\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 anlamak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ilk aylar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6nem ta\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasa tahminleri \u015f\u00f6yle idi: \u0130hracat 10.6 milyar dolar; ithalat 17.7 milyar dolar; a\u00e7\u0131k 6.1 milyar dolar. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k i\u00e7in en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin 4.2 milyar dolar, en y\u00fcksek 7 milyar dolard\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130hracat ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 9 art\u0131\u015fla 10.4 milyar dolar, ithalat y\u00fczde 3 art\u0131\u015fla 17.4 milyar dolar, dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 300 milyon dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 7 milyar dolar oldu. Yani piyasa tahminleri iyimser kald\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile y\u0131ll\u0131k toplamlar \u00e7ok az de\u011fi\u015fti. \u0130hracat 136 milyar dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131. Ama 2008 sonbahar\u0131n\u0131n rekorunu k\u0131ramad\u0131. \u0130thalat ise 241 milyar dolar\u0131 ge\u00e7ip tarihi rekor dizisini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k 400 milyon dolar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle 105 milyar dolara yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3780958079\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Takvim ve mevsim etkisini ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131nca bu resim de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. Nitekim aral\u0131k ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ihracatta y\u00fczde 1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f var. AB\u2019ye ihracat\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor. Di\u011fer \u00fclkelere ihracat h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131yor. Halbuki ithalatta y\u00fczde 3 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ithalat\u0131 olumsuz etkiliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>D\u00fczelme \u00e7ok yava\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Laf\u0131 uzatmayal\u0131m. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor ama temposu \u201cyumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d i\u00e7in yetersiz duruyor. Temel sorun ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de\u011fildir. Ona ra\u011fmen y\u0131ll\u0131k ithalat\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesidir.<\/p>\n<p>Tek g\u00f6zlemden genellemek daima sorunludur. Pek \u00e7ok seride oldu\u011fu gibi, d\u0131\u015f ticarette de aydan aya a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 zor dalgalanmalar olabiliyor. A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik sorunu anlamay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4285157002\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u00c7ubuklar milyar dolar cinsinden y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Krizde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Toparlanma ile birlikte h\u0131zla t\u0131rman\u0131yor. Kas\u0131mda zirveye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130ki ayd\u0131r yava\u015f bir gerileme ba\u015fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7izgi ise takvim ve mevsim etkisi ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131lland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011ferini veriyor (ayl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 on iki ile \u00e7arp\u0131yoruz). Ayl\u0131k dalgalanmalar \u00e7ok nettir. Son d\u00f6nemde zay\u0131f da olsa a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim belirgindir.<\/p>\n<p>Malum soru ile bitiriyorum: Bu kur d\u00fczeyi d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131kta arzulanan d\u00fczelme i\u00e7in yeterli midir?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l vadeli ve y\u00fczde 1 faizli fonlama ihalesine bankalardan 560 milyar dolar talep geldi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Yani euro b\u00f6lgesi likidite bollu\u011funda y\u00fcz\u00fcyor.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12221","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12221","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12221"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12221\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12221"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12221"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12221"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}