{"id":1217,"date":"2011-06-08T09:25:31","date_gmt":"2011-06-08T06:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1217"},"modified":"2011-06-08T10:12:50","modified_gmt":"2011-06-08T07:12:50","slug":"kiraz-erik-enflasyonu-ve-isinma","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kiraz-erik-enflasyonu-ve-isinma\/","title":{"rendered":"Kiraz, Erik Enflasyonu ve Is\u0131nma"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>May\u0131s ay\u0131nda enflasyonun beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini art\u0131k sa\u011f\u0131r sultan bile duydu herhalde. Fiyat indeksinin bir ayda y\u00fczde 2.42 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckselmesi az buz i\u015f de\u011fil. Sorun salt\u00a0 May\u0131s ay\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131yla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalsa neyse. Y\u00fczde 4 civar\u0131nda\u00a0 dola\u015fan\u00a0 y\u0131ll\u0131k (12 ayl\u0131k) enflasyon oran\u0131 da bir anda y\u00fczde 7.17 d\u00fczeyine z\u0131plad\u0131. Son s\u0131ralarda b\u00f6ylesine pek rastlanm\u0131yordu. Neresinden bak\u0131lsa \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f bu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1461140847\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>May\u0131s ay\u0131nda z\u0131plad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc veren enflasyon ilk anda biraz tela\u015f yaratt\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan say\u0131lara hemen tepki vermek zorunda kalanlar durumun \u00fcmitsiz ya da vahim de\u011filse de ciddi oldu\u011fu \u015feklinde de\u011ferlendirmeler yapt\u0131lar. Y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmekte olan yeni para politikas\u0131n\u0131n iflas\u0131n\u0131 ilan edenler bile oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Neyse ki MB fazla\u00a0 tela\u015f yapmad\u0131. Ne de olsa Banka kamuya a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmadan \u00f6nce enflasyon say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ayr\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyor, dersini \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu bilgiyle hareket eden MB so\u011fukkanl\u0131 ve emin bir \u015fekilde May\u0131s ay\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan durumun arizi nedenlerden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, fiyatlardaki y\u00fcksek dozlu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ge\u00e7ici oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Banka enflasyonun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aydan itibaren \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen patikaya d\u00f6nmesini bekledi\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131klanan &#8220;May\u0131s Ay\u0131 Fiyat Geli\u015fmleri&#8221; ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 raporda MB kendi enflasyon de\u011ferlendirmesinin ayr\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 da kamuoyuna sundu. Bankan\u0131n\u00a0 May\u0131s ay\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 konusundaki temel de\u011ferlendirmesi \u015f\u00f6yle;\u00a0 &#8220;Bu d\u00f6nemde taze meyve fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 76.12 ile ge\u00e7mi\u015f d\u00f6nem ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f kaydetmi\u015ftir. Bu geli\u015fmede arz y\u00f6nl\u00fc unsurlar nedeniyle kiraz ve erik \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin May\u0131s ay\u0131nda endekse olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerden girmesi etkili olmu\u015ftur&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Banka k\u0131saca merak etmeyin, bu ay kiraz ve erik pahal\u0131 geldi b\u00f6yle oldu, gelecek aya bir \u015fey kalmaz demeye getiriyor. Gelecek ay ve sonras\u0131nda\u00a0 bir sorun olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcvencesi olarak da\u00a0 \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon tabir edilen mevsimsellikten ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u00f6zel mal gruplar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n hala s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>MB n\u0131n durumu de\u011ferlendirmesi b\u00f6yle. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamaya inanan kadar inanmayan da oldu. Ama tela\u015f so\u011fudu.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3459653954\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Tela\u015f\u0131n so\u011fumas\u0131 \u00f6nemli tabii. Ama \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen ekonominin so\u011futulmas\u0131\u00a0 daha da \u00f6nemli. Ekonomideki \u0131s\u0131nma-so\u011fuma ikilemi son s\u0131ralar\u0131n en s\u0131cak konusu. Bu sadece bizde\u00a0 b\u00f6yle de\u011fil. Krizden iktisat politikalar\u0131n\u0131 gev\u015feterek \u00e7\u0131kan t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler \u015fimdilerde bu ikilemi ya\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda sorun basit. Ekonominin dengelerine, yani \u0131s\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6re uygulanmas\u0131 gereken iktisat politikalar\u0131 farkl\u0131 olmak zorunda. Is\u0131nma belirtileri g\u00f6steren ekonomilerde para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak gerekiyor. Is\u0131nman\u0131n en \u00f6nemli belirtilerinden birisi de enflasyonun h\u0131zlanmas\u0131. Enflasyonu y\u00fckselen ekonomiler, \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na h\u00fckmedip, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politikalara kay\u0131yorlar. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n \u00f6nemli ara\u00e7lar\u0131ndan birisi de faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdilerde bizim i\u00e7in de benzer bir durum s\u00f6zkonusu. Somut \u0131s\u0131nma belirtileri olmas\u0131 halinde Merkez Bankas\u0131 son s\u0131ralarda uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmek, paray\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak, yani faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek\u00a0 zorunda kalacak.<\/p>\n<p>May\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyonuna ili\u015fkin olarak Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8220;merak etmeyin bu bir kiraz-erik enflasyonudur&#8221; a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 bu bak\u0131mdan \u00f6nemli. Banka enflasyondaki z\u0131plaman\u0131n\u00a0 \u00f6nemli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani ekonomide \u0131s\u0131nma i\u015fareti olarak alg\u0131lamamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Enflasyon y\u00fckselmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeyece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor bu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3544920791\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n &#8220;kiraz-erik enflasyonu&#8221; a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na inanmayanlar ekonominin \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zorunlu ve acil oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar. May\u0131s ay\u0131 enflasyonunun ger\u00e7ekten kiraz-erik enflasyonu karakterinde oldu\u011funa ikna olanlar ise ise ekonomide hen\u00fcz bir \u0131s\u0131nma olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu a\u015famada parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n gerekmedi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdilik ikinci gruptakiler a\u011f\u0131r bas\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yak\u0131n gelecekte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu anlam\u0131na geliyor bu.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Taner BERKSOY<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>May\u0131s ay\u0131nda enflasyonun beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseldi\u011fini art\u0131k sa\u011f\u0131r sultan bile duydu herhalde. Fiyat indeksinin bir ayda y\u00fczde 2.42 oran\u0131nda y\u00fckselmesi az buz i\u015f de\u011fil.&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1217","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1217","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1217"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1217\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1217"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1217"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1217"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}