{"id":12165,"date":"2012-02-29T09:35:36","date_gmt":"2012-02-29T07:35:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12165"},"modified":"2012-02-29T09:35:44","modified_gmt":"2012-02-29T07:35:44","slug":"kritik-gun-geldi-catti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/kritik-gun-geldi-catti\/","title":{"rendered":"Kritik G\u00fcn Geldi \u00c7att\u0131!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) ikinci 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k uzun vadeli fonlama (LTRO-The Longer Term Refinancing Operation) ihalesi yap\u0131lacak. \u0130hale asl\u0131nda bir \u201cmiktar ihalesi\u201d. Zira vadenin 3 y\u0131l, faizin de y\u00fczde 1 olaca\u011f\u0131 ba\u015ftan biliniyor. Piyasalar; \u201cOcak rallisinin\u201d devam edip etmeyece\u011fine, bug\u00fcn ihalede \u00e7\u0131kacak rakama g\u00f6re karar verecek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-340865023\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Barclays Bank LTRO miktar\u0131n\u0131n ne olaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir anket yapm\u0131\u015f. 204 fon ve banka y\u00f6neticisinin kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla yap\u0131lan ankete kat\u0131lanlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 29\u2019u 300-450 milyar, y\u00fczde 42\u2019si 450-600 milyar euro aras\u0131nda aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir miktar olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekliyormu\u015f. Benim tahminim daha \u00e7ok 600 milyar euroya yak\u0131n. Rakam\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 (hisse, emtia v.b.) hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011fratabilir. Piyasalara girecek rakam\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 ilk bak\u0131\u015fta \u201crallinin\u201d yerini bir d\u00fczeltmeye b\u0131rakmas\u0131na neden olacakt\u0131r. \u0130yimser g\u00f6zl\u00fckle bakanlar ise \u201cdemek ki bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc (ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonomi) iyiye gidiyor ki ihtiya\u00e7 azalm\u0131\u015f\u201d diyecekler ancak bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na u\u011frayan \u201clikidite m\u00fcptelalar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d g\u00f6lgesinde kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>500 milyar ve \u00fczerindeki bir miktar ise varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131nca \u201cho\u015f\u201d kar\u015f\u0131lanacakt\u0131r. Her ne kadar k\u00f6t\u00fcmserler \u201cbankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc (ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ekonomi) hen\u00fcz daha krizi atlatamam\u0131\u015f ki bu kadar y\u00fcksek bir rakama ihtiya\u00e7 duyuldu\u201d diyeceklerdir. \u2018Likidite m\u00fcptelalar\u0131\u2019 y\u00fcksek miktar\u0131 co\u015fkuyla kar\u015f\u0131layacak, hisse senetleri ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131; s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa; yeniden y\u00fckselecektir. Normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda arz\u0131 artan euronun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesi gerekirken, risk hevesinin artacak olmas\u0131 k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in de olsa euronun de\u011fer kazand\u0131\u011f\u0131na da \u015fahit olabiliriz. (Nereye kadar derseniz 1.3625 belki de 1.3715) Ancak sonras\u0131nda euronun yeniden de\u011fer kaybetti\u011fi bir d\u00f6nem ba\u015flayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ihalenin son olabilece\u011fine dair ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde piyasada dedikodular dola\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fcn de ECB Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00fcyesi Ewald Nowotny, yap\u0131lacak likidite sa\u011flama ama\u00e7l\u0131 ihalesinin uzun vadeli etkileri konusunda endi\u015feli oldu\u011funu belirtti ve likidite sunumlar\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 kez tekrarlanmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunmu\u015f. Bir ba\u015fka ilgin\u00e7 yorum da www.bussinessinsider.com sitesinden yer al\u0131yor. Bu yoruma g\u00f6re 2013 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar 3-4 LTRO ihalesi yap\u0131lacak ve toplam rakam 2.4 trilyon dolara ula\u015facakm\u0131\u015f. Bug\u00fcn yap\u0131lacak ihalenin son olmas\u0131 da yeni ihalelerin ufukta g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi piyasalardaki hareketlili\u011fi artt\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>VOB kontratlar\u0131ndaki \u2018negatif\u2019 fark<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bug\u00fcn VOB 30 \u015eubat kontrat\u0131n\u0131n son i\u015flem g\u00fcn\u00fc. \u201cYak\u0131n vade\u201d kontrat\u0131 olarak Nisan kontrat\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak i\u015flem g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flayacak. Ancak son g\u00fcnlerde her iki kontrat aras\u0131ndaki fark Nisan kontrat\u0131 aleyhine negatifti. Normal \u015fartlarda iki ay sonra vadesi dolacak Nisan kontrat\u0131n\u0131n, faiz fark\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 850 puan y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131 (y\u00fczde 7 y\u0131ll\u0131k faizle hesapland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) gerekirken 200 puan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Bir ba\u015fka deyi\u015fle \u201cteorik olarak\u201d 1.050 puanl\u0131k bir \u201cnegatif farktan\u201d s\u00f6z ediyoruz .<\/p>\n<p>Bu fark Nisan sonuna kadar \u00f6denece\u011fi varsay\u0131lan\/hesaplanan temett\u00fclerden kaynaklan\u0131yor. Normal \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda hisse senetlerinden temett\u00fc kazanc\u0131 elde edilirken endekse dayal\u0131 olan VOB kontratlar\u0131 i\u00e7in temett\u00fcden s\u00f6z etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Bu nedenle VOB \u201cteorik\u201d olarak geride kal\u0131yor. \u00d6nceki y\u0131llarda bu fark bu denli \u201ca\u00e7\u0131k\u201d de\u011fildi. Fark\u0131n bu denli a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131nda Turkcell\u2019in temett\u00fc ya da LTRO belirsizli\u011fi olabilir!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bug\u00fcn Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) ikinci 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k uzun vadeli fonlama (LTRO-The Longer Term Refinancing Operation) ihalesi yap\u0131lacak. \u0130hale asl\u0131nda bir \u201cmiktar ihalesi\u201d. Zira vadenin&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12165","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12165"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12165\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}