{"id":12162,"date":"2012-02-29T09:32:54","date_gmt":"2012-02-29T07:32:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12162"},"modified":"2012-02-29T09:33:04","modified_gmt":"2012-02-29T07:33:04","slug":"risk-cari-acik-buyume-ve-egitim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/risk-cari-acik-buyume-ve-egitim\/","title":{"rendered":"Risk, Cari A\u00e7\u0131k, B\u00fcy\u00fcme ve E\u011fitim"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta sonu G-20 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n kendi sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmekte daha kararl\u0131 davranmas\u0131 ve daha fazla parasal destek vermesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Almanya&#8217;n\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131 Maliye Bakan\u0131&#8217;ndan geldi: &#8220;Biz ev \u00f6devimizi yapt\u0131k.&#8221;<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-2385146190\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131<\/p>\n<p>Avrupa krizinin yay\u0131larak d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na bela olmas\u0131n\u0131 engellemek i\u00e7in daha fazla paraya gereksinim var. Art\u0131k adlar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131m finansal kurtarma fonlar\u0131ndan birinin s\u00fcresi temmuz ay\u0131nda bitiyor. Yerine kal\u0131c\u0131 olan\u0131 devreye girecek. Kal\u0131c\u0131 olan\u0131n\u0131n sermayesi 500 milyar euro. Bunun yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 uzun bir s\u00fcredir konu\u015fuluyor. Bu k\u00f6\u015fede bu yorumlara 2011 i\u00e7inde \u00e7ok de\u011findim. Bir \u00f6neri, ortadan kalkacak fonda geriye kalan 200 milyar euronun da kal\u0131c\u0131 fondaki 500 milyar euro ile birle\u015ftirilmesi.<\/p>\n<p>Almanya buna kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan \u00c7in, Japonya ve ABD gibi \u00fclkelerin en az\u0131ndan IMF&#8217;nin olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak, daha iyisi, hem bu fona katk\u0131da bulunacak hem de IMF&#8217;nin kredi a\u00e7ma olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131racak bi\u00e7imde devreye girmeleri \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 var. ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n &#8220;siz \u00f6nce ev \u00f6devinizi yap\u0131n&#8221; demesi, &#8220;kurtarma fonunuzu ger\u00e7ekten &#8216;kurtar\u0131c\u0131&#8217; duruma getirecek bi\u00e7imde sermayesini y\u00fckseltin&#8221; anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>G-20 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki bu \u00e7eki\u015fme, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (ECB) ucuz krediyle Aral\u0131k 2011 sonunda devreye girmedi\u011fi ve ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (FED) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131n\u0131 2014&#8217;e kadar de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fiz a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir durumda ortaya \u00e7\u0131ksayd\u0131, finansal piyasalar yine \u00e7ok \u00e7alkant\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem ya\u015farlard\u0131. Neyse ki ECB ve FED&#8217;in kararlar\u0131 ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 belirgin bi\u00e7imde y\u00fckselttiler de, G-20 toplant\u0131s\u0131ndaki havanda su d\u00f6vme belirgin bir sars\u0131nt\u0131ya yol a\u00e7mad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>&#8216;Neyse ki&#8217; diyorum \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n ne d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi ne yaz\u0131k ki yabanc\u0131 finansal yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n insaf\u0131na kalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu yeni bir olgu de\u011fil; uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r b\u00f6yle. Ayn\u0131 hik\u00e2ye: Yurti\u00e7i tasarruflar\u0131m\u0131z h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmek i\u00e7in gereksindi\u011fimiz yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 bor\u00e7lanmadan yapmam\u0131za yeterli olmaktan \u00e7ok uzak. Ancak d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kaynak (bor\u00e7) bulduk\u00e7a yeni kapasite in\u015fa etme olana\u011f\u0131m\u0131z art\u0131yor. Ek olarak bir de 2010 ve 2011&#8217;de \u00e7ok fazla k\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lanma ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdik.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme-cari a\u00e7\u0131k<\/p>\n<p>Yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131 kesilirse, vadesi hemen gelen y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda borcumuz i\u00e7in yeniden bor\u00e7lanma olana\u011f\u0131m\u0131z azalacak; \u015firketlerimiz bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek, bankalar\u0131m\u0131z da kredi arz\u0131n\u0131 azaltarak bu bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6deyecekler. Bu durumda 2011&#8217;deki y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden sonra &#8216;sert ini\u015f&#8217; yapmak olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00f6zellikle de Avrupa ile bu kadar ilgileniyoruz.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1160710822\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Elbette yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na bu kadar odaklanmam\u0131z\u0131n bir di\u011fer nedeni, ihracat performans\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n, pazarlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi ile yak\u0131ndan ilgili olmas\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n tekrar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme s\u00fcrecine girmesi bu a\u00e7\u0131dan bizi \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcyor. Ancak bu ikinci etki, tasarruf oran\u0131 ister d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ister y\u00fcksek olsun, herhangi bir ekonomi i\u00e7in de benzer etkiyi yarat\u0131yor. Oysa ilk etkiden, yani, d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan bor\u00e7lanma olana\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n &#8216;sert ini\u015f&#8217;e yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan bu kadar \u00fcrkmemizin nedeni, tasarruflar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n yetersizli\u011fi. Risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 her \u00fclkeyi \u015fu ya da bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkiliyor ama \u00f6zellikle bizim gibi y\u00fcksek cari a\u00e7\u0131k veren \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir ba\u015f a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin bu temel yap\u0131sal sorununun \u00fczerine gitmesi gerekiyor. Bunun bir yolu daha rekabet\u00e7i bir ekonomiye kavu\u015fmaktan ge\u00e7iyor. Daha rekabet\u00e7i, yani daha verimli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan, daha y\u00fcksek teknolojiye \u00fcretilmi\u015f ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla katma de\u011feri y\u00fcksek mallar\u0131 satabilen bir \u00fclke. \u015e\u00fcphesiz bu konuma bir \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131da gelmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. &#8216;Bir \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131da&#8217; de\u011fil ama &#8216;gelmek&#8217; m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. \u0130\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyini art\u0131rmak o d\u00fczeye gelmenin olmazsa olmaz ko\u015fulu.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fcme-e\u011fitim<\/p>\n<p>Bir \u00fclkenin e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyi ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 ve refah d\u00fczeyi aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki var. Kalk\u0131nma ders kitaplar\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131z \u00f6rnekle dolu. Kald\u0131 ki bu ili\u015fkinin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ikna olmak i\u00e7in kitaplar kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya gerek de yok.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1261147216\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>\u015eimdi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn: T\u00fcrkiye daha iyi kaynak ustalar\u0131, elektrik teknisyenleri, in\u015faat ustalar\u0131, m\u00fchendisler, \u00f6\u011fretmenler, \u00f6\u011fretim \u00fcyeleri, doktorlar, madenciler, tornac\u0131lar, ayakkab\u0131 tamircileri, daha istedi\u011finiz mesle\u011fi ekleyin, yeti\u015ftirseydi&#8230; Vatanda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 birbirlerine daha sayg\u0131l\u0131 olacak \u015fekilde e\u011fitebilseydi\u2026 D\u00fcnya ile daha \u00e7ok b\u00fct\u00fcnle\u015fmeleri i\u00e7in onlara daha iyi yabanc\u0131 dil \u00f6\u011fretebilseydi\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Daha iyi konutlarda oturmaz m\u0131yd\u0131k? Daha kaliteli yollarda seyahat etmez miydik? Altyap\u0131 sistemimiz daha sa\u011flam olmaz m\u0131yd\u0131? Ayn\u0131 i\u015fi daha az zamanda yapmaz m\u0131yd\u0131k? Daha yenilik\u00e7i olmaz m\u0131yd\u0131k? Daha kaliteli mal \u00fcretmez miydik? K\u0131sacas\u0131 daha rekabet\u00e7i olmaz m\u0131yd\u0131k?<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fitimde yine \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fczenleme yap\u0131lmak \u00fczere: 4+4+4. E\u011fitime ili\u015fkin yeni d\u00fczenlemeye yukar\u0131da de\u011findi\u011fim pencereden mutlaka bakmak gerekiyor. Bu gereklili\u011fe i\u015faret eden ba\u015fkalar\u0131 da var elbette. Ne yaz\u0131k ki sesleri pek duyulmuyor.<\/p>\n<p>Farazi bir hesaplama<\/p>\n<p>Bu vesileyle daha \u00f6nce \u00e7ok yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya tekrar yer vereyim. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcne g\u00f6re d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirini, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geli\u015fmi\u015f en b\u00fcy\u00fck yedi ekonomisinin (G-7) yine sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc ile d\u00fczeltilmi\u015f ortalama ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131raca\u011f\u0131m. Ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan tablo \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/p>\n<p>1980-2010 d\u00f6neminde bu oran\u0131n ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 28.1&#8217;di. Son y\u0131llarda T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;nin lehine s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa artt\u0131 ve 2010&#8217;da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyimiz G-7&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 34.3&#8217;\u00fc oldu. Bu s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 iyile\u015fme bir tarafa, y\u0131llar sonra hala geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerle aram\u0131zda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir refah fark\u0131 oldu\u011fu ortada. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 1960&#8217;a da g\u00f6t\u00fcrsek bir \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fmiyor. 1960&#8217;ta s\u00f6z konusu oran y\u00fczde 27.1 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Bir par\u00e7a k\u0131p\u0131rdanma olsa da, elli y\u0131ld\u0131r neredeyse yerimizde sayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 belirtmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn.<\/p>\n<p>1960-1975 d\u00f6neminde ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 5.4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Oysa 1976-2011 d\u00f6nemindeki ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z y\u00fczde 4.1 d\u00fczeyinde. 1975&#8217;ten sonraki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 4.1 yerine y\u00fczde 5.4 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcseydik ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyimiz ne olurdu? Bu soru hakl\u0131 bir soru. \u00d6yle ya 1960-1975 d\u00f6neminde bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirebilmi\u015fiz. \u00dcstelik \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 tutturup uzun s\u00fcre s\u00fcrd\u00fcren \u00fclkeler de var. Bu durumda, kendimizi neden y\u00fczde 5.4 ile s\u0131n\u0131rlayal\u0131m? Yine \u00e7ok iddial\u0131 olmayan ba\u015fka bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131 se\u00e7eyim. Mesela y\u00fczde 6 alay\u0131m ve ayn\u0131 soruyu tekrarlayay\u0131m: 1975&#8217;ten sonraki d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 4.1 yerine y\u00fczde 6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcseydik nas\u0131l bir ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 gelir d\u00fczeyine ula\u015f\u0131rd\u0131k?<\/p>\n<p>Grafik 1&#8217;de reel gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lam\u0131z\u0131n (GSYH) 1960-2011 d\u00f6nemindeki hareketleri g\u00f6steriliyor. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyi g\u00f6steren en alttaki e\u011frinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda iki e\u011fri daha var. Ortadaki e\u011fri, 1975&#8217;ten itibaren her y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcseydik ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak farazi GSYH&#8217;yi g\u00f6steriyor. \u00dcstteki e\u011fri ise 1975&#8217;ten itibaren y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcseydik ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak farazi GSYH&#8217;yi temsil ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>1976-2011 d\u00f6neminde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131nda 1.3 puan gibi makul say\u0131labilecek bir art\u0131\u015f bile, \u015fu anda olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 bir refah d\u00fczeyine getirecekti T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;yi. Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelirimizin G-7 \u00fclkelerinin ortalama ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyine oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 34 yerine y\u00fczde 54 d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecekti. Ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.4 yerine y\u00fczde 6 olsayd\u0131, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na gelir d\u00fczeyimiz 2010&#8217;da G-7&#8217;nin y\u00fczde 34&#8217;\u00fc de\u011fil de y\u00fczde 71&#8217;i olacakt\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fitimde kaliteyi \u00e7ok ciddi bi\u00e7imde tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n zaman\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hafta sonu G-20 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda, ABD Hazine Bakan\u0131, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n kendi sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmekte daha kararl\u0131 davranmas\u0131 ve daha fazla parasal destek vermesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Almanya&#8217;n\u0131n yan\u0131t\u0131 Maliye&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12162"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12162\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}