{"id":12156,"date":"2012-02-29T09:31:03","date_gmt":"2012-02-29T07:31:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12156"},"modified":"2012-02-29T09:31:13","modified_gmt":"2012-02-29T07:31:13","slug":"aranan-risk-bulundu-petrol-fiyati","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/aranan-risk-bulundu-petrol-fiyati\/","title":{"rendered":"Aranan Risk Bulundu: Petrol Fiyat\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bir Avrupa riski diye tutturmu\u015f gidiyorduk.\u00a0 Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00f6yle ge\u00e7irdik. Tan\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, bilinen, al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f dahas\u0131 fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f bir risk s\u00f6z konusuydu. Y\u00fck Yunanistan&#8217;a y\u00fcklenmi\u015fti. Orada durumlar biraz d\u00fczelir gibi olunca hemen \u00f6teki Euro b\u00f6lgesi \u00fclkeleri, Portekiz,\u00a0 \u0130spanya, \u0130talya\u00a0 falan devreye sokulup, konsantrasyonun\u00a0 da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 engelleniyordu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1768487148\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Bir s\u00fcredir iki noktan\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyorum. Avrupa\u00a0 riskinin\u00a0 realize olmas\u0131, yani korkulan da\u011f\u0131lman\u0131n\u00a0 hayata ge\u00e7mesi\u00a0 kimsenin i\u015fine gelmez.\u00a0 Bu bir.\u00a0 Avrupa riskinin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcyle\u00a0 a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in Yunanistan sorununun \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7en bir \u015feyler yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyor.\u00a0 Bu da iki.<\/p>\n<p>Nelerin\u00a0 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi de bana kal\u0131rsa a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yunan borcu alacakl\u0131 ve bor\u00e7lu aras\u0131nda yeniden da\u011f\u0131t\u0131lmal\u0131yd\u0131. Yani, Yunan borcuna sa\u00e7 tra\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131p, vadeler yeniden d\u00fczenlenmeliydi.\u00a0 Bu Yunan sorununu \u00e7\u00f6zerdi ama bu konudaki karar \u00e7ok gecikti\u011fi i\u00e7in Avrupa Birli\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fck g\u00fcvende ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f olan h\u0131zl\u0131 a\u015f\u0131nmay\u0131\u00a0 ortadan\u00a0 kald\u0131rmazd\u0131. Bunun i\u00e7in\u00a0 Avrupa Birli\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fck\u00a0 bir iman tazelemesi yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekiyordu.\u00a0 K\u0131sacas\u0131,\u00a0 Avrupa Birli\u011fi vizyonunun hayata d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi,\u00a0 Birli\u011fin ve\u00a0 Euronun\u00a0 ya\u015fat\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir siyasi iradenin\u00a0 ortaya konmas\u0131 gerekiyordu.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Karma\u015f\u0131k Avrupa makinesinin bu noktalar\u0131 birle\u015ftirip, \u00e7izgi haline getirmesi uzun zaman ald\u0131.\u00a0 \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ad\u0131m at\u0131lmas\u0131\u00a0 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son haftalar\u0131na kadar gecikti.\u00a0 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda yap\u0131lan AB zirvesinde Birli\u011fi devam ettirmek i\u00e7in gerekli irade do\u011frultusunda ciddi ad\u0131mlar at\u0131ld\u0131. Yunanistan&#8217;da\u00a0 gereken bor\u00e7 tra\u015f\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki\u00a0 uzla\u015f\u0131\u00a0 da devreye girdi. \u015eimdilerde de Avrupa krizi etraf\u0131na, neredeyse riski s\u0131f\u0131rlayacak bir &#8220;yang\u0131n duvar\u0131&#8221; \u00f6r\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in ciddi ad\u0131mlar at\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bana kal\u0131rsa ma\u00e7 bitti. Avrupa riski konusunda devam eden gelgitlere kulak\u00a0 asmay\u0131n. Avrupa sorunu ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonu itibariyle bitmi\u015f say\u0131l\u0131r. Uygulama sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0 a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131, trenin yeniden ray\u0131na oturtulmas\u0131\u00a0 baya\u011f\u0131 ciddi bir zaman alacak tabii.\u00a0 Hala s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan u\u011fultu\u00a0 ise\u00a0 uygulama sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n risk diye pi\u015firip sofraya konulmas\u0131ndan ibaret.<\/p>\n<p>*\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 *<\/p>\n<p>Finansal oyunda risk alg\u0131s\u0131 adrenalindir. Varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 gereklidir. Canl\u0131l\u0131k hissi verir. Piyasalar bu hissi severler. Risksiz kalmak i\u015flerine gelmez.\u00a0 S\u00fcrekli g\u00fcndemde tutulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan Avrupa riski a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da durum budur.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-870354578\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Dikkat ettiyseniz, Avrupa&#8217;da ulusal iflas (default)\u00a0 riskinin hafiften mayna etmesi bir s\u00fcre \u00f6teki risklerin \u00fczerindeki vurguyu y\u00fckseltti.\u00a0 \u00d6rne\u011fin, k\u00fcresel krize kar\u015f\u0131\u00a0 bol bulama\u00e7 kullan\u0131lan likidite\u00a0 enjeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7ta enflasyonu z\u0131platmas\u0131 gibi bir olas\u0131l\u0131k var. Bu ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri bilinen bir risk. Fark\u0131ndaysan\u0131z, son s\u0131ralarda\u00a0 bu\u00a0 t\u00fcr enflasyon riskine\u00a0 yap\u0131lan vurgu birden y\u00fckseltildi.\u00a0 Olmad\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc,\u00a0 ekonomilerin \u00e7o\u011funda, \u00f6zellikle likidite enjeksiyonunda\u00a0 ba\u015f\u0131 \u00e7eken geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde iktisadi veriler hen\u00fcz bu riski do\u011frulam\u0131yor. Enflasyon riski Avrupa riskinin\u00a0 yerine konulamad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00f6zel a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k verilmek istenen bir ba\u015fka risk de d\u00fcnya \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zlar\u0131nda sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ile g\u00fcndeme ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131. Veriler 2012 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6nceki y\u0131la k\u0131yasla bir yava\u015flama olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011fruluyor. Ama son bulgular yava\u015flaman\u0131n, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclenin tersine,\u00a0 pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkede yumu\u015fak bir ini\u015f \u015feklinde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0 Yani, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f senaryosu da Avrupa riskinin yerine ikame edilemedi.<\/p>\n<p>Neredeyse risksiz\u00a0 kalacakken\u00a0 risk kovalayanlar\u0131n \u015fans\u0131 yaver gitti. Sonunda ekonomi alan\u0131nda bulunamayan risk k\u00fcresel siyaset alan\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u0130ran ile ba\u015f g\u00f6steren n\u00fckleer enerji uzla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7ta ambargo,\u00a0 H\u00fcrm\u00fcz bo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131, petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 vb gibi kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 tehdit dolu giri\u015fimlerle t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>San\u0131r\u0131m aranan kan fazlas\u0131yla bulundu demek do\u011fru olur. Avrupa riskinden misliyle b\u00fcy\u00fck, \u00e7ok daha \u00e7etrefil, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi daha zor olan bir siyasi- ekonomik risk paketi devreye girmi\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00a0 \u015eimdi hem s\u0131cak temas gibi bir siyasi risk var d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fcndeminde, hem de bu geli\u015fmeler sonucunda petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan y\u00fckselme ivmesinin iktisadi hayat\u0131 esir almas\u0131 riski var. \u00dcstelik daha \u00f6nce pi\u015firilip sofraya konmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan enflasyon ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme risklerini de misliyle katlamaya aday bir risk bu.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4019623108\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Avrupa riskiyle ne g\u00fczel oyalan\u0131p duruyorduk. \u015eimdi, ya\u011fmurdan ka\u00e7arken doluya tutulmak gibi bir a\u00e7maza s\u00fcr\u00fcklenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var diye d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bir Avrupa riski diye tutturmu\u015f gidiyorduk.\u00a0 Birka\u00e7 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00f6yle ge\u00e7irdik. Tan\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, bilinen, al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f dahas\u0131 fiyatlanm\u0131\u015f bir risk s\u00f6z konusuydu. Y\u00fck Yunanistan&#8217;a y\u00fcklenmi\u015fti. Orada durumlar&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":901,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12156","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12156","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/15"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12156"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12156\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12156"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12156"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12156"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}