{"id":12117,"date":"2012-02-28T09:14:52","date_gmt":"2012-02-28T07:14:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12117"},"modified":"2012-02-28T09:15:00","modified_gmt":"2012-02-28T07:15:00","slug":"euroyu-birakmanin-maliyeti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/euroyu-birakmanin-maliyeti\/","title":{"rendered":"Euro\u2019yu B\u0131rakman\u0131n Maliyeti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa borsalar\u0131 haftaya iyi ba\u015flamad\u0131. Sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 \u0130MKB\u2019ye de yans\u0131d\u0131. Euro, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda biraz de\u011fer kaybetti. Son bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda parite 1.34\u2019e inmi\u015fti. Sepet kur bir 2.08 TL\u2019ye t\u0131rmand\u0131 ama tekrar 2.07 TL\u2019ye d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4042313520\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>G-20 \u00fclkeleri ekonomi bakanlar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 Meksika\u2019da yapt\u0131. G\u00fcndem euro b\u00f6lgesi sorunlar\u0131na odakland\u0131. Euro krizinin d\u00fcnya ekonomisine olumsuz etkilerini asgariye indirme \u00e7abas\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131t\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Sorunlu ekonomilerin etraf\u0131na \u201cyang\u0131n duvar\u0131\u201d \u00f6recek \u00e7apta (2 trilyon dolar) destek sa\u011flaman\u0131n yolu aran\u0131yor. Avrupa-d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fclkeler IMF \u00fczerinden kat\u0131l\u0131yor. Herhalde T\u00fcrkiye de para verecektir. Nereden nereye&#8230; Ama Almanya plan\u0131 kabul etmedi.<\/p>\n<p>Yar\u0131n Ocak d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n daralaca\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Ne kadar? Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 7.3 milyar dolard\u0131. Piyasa 6.2 milyar dolar \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelebilir. \u201cYumu\u015fak ini\u015f\u201d senaryosu i\u00e7in kritik \u00f6nemdedir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Damdan d\u00fc\u015fenin&#8230;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc de\u011findim. The Economist (18 \u015eubat) Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n mutlaka euro\u2019da kalmas\u0131n\u0131 savunan bir yaz\u0131 yay\u0131nlad\u0131. Ne olmu\u015f; sa\u011fda solda euro\u2019yu terk etmenin y\u00fcksek maliyetini anlatan \u00e7ok yaz\u0131 var diyebilirsiniz.<\/p>\n<p>Fark yazarlarda: M. Blejer Arjantin\u2019in, G. Ortiz ise Meksika\u2019n\u0131n Merkez Bankas\u0131 eski ba\u015fkan\u0131. \u00d6zellikle ilki \u00f6nemli; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Drahma\u2019ya geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc \u00f6nerenler hep Arjantin\u2019i \u00f6rnek g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Okurken g\u00fczel \u00f6zdeyi\u015fler hat\u0131rlad\u0131m. Biri hemen akla geliyor: \u201cDamdan d\u00fc\u015fenin h\u00e2lini sadece daha \u00f6nce d\u00fc\u015fen anlar.\u201d Ba\u015fkalar\u0131 da var: \u201cDavulun sesi uzaktan ho\u015f gelirmi\u015f\u201d, \u201cbek\u00e2ra bo\u015fanmak kolayd\u0131r\u201d vs.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1998098287\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Yaz\u0131 Arjantin\u2019de Peso\u2019nun dolarla hukuki ba\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kesilmesi s\u0131ras\u0131nda \u00f6denen b\u00fcy\u00fck faturaya odaklan\u0131yor. Bankalara h\u00fccum; \u00e7\u00f6ken mali sistem; yasaklanan para \u00e7ekme: reel kesinde iflas dalgas\u0131; bor\u00e7ludan alacakl\u0131ya keyfi servet aktar\u0131m\u0131 vs. Liste uzun&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Dikkat: Arjantin Peso\u2019yu b\u0131rakmad\u0131, sadece dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011ferini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Yunanistan\u2019da b\u00fct\u00fcn kontratlar euro ile yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Drahma\u2019ya \u00e7evirmenin yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 yasal k\u00e2bus ve a\u011f\u0131r ilave y\u00fckler \u00f6zellikle vurgulan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>IMF yapamaz<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cYap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken euro\u2019nun terk edilmesi de\u011fil, euro b\u00f6lgesinin ve Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zel ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131 yans\u0131tan bir \u00e7er\u00e7evenin kurulmas\u0131d\u0131r. Uyum ve reform s\u00fcrecinin uzun s\u00fcrece\u011fi (belki on y\u0131l?) kabul edilmelidir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1936624847\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fc uyumun ve yap\u0131sal reformlar\u0131n bir sonucu olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar; deste\u011fin \u00f6n ko\u015fulu olmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Piyasalar\u0131n uzun s\u00fcre Yunanistan\u2019a kapal\u0131 kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda uzun d\u00f6nemli resmi finansman gerekti\u011fi bilinmelidir. Kamu kesiminde uyum ve \u00f6zel kesimde nominal \u00fccret indirimleri e\u015fit a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k ta\u015f\u0131mal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu program en iyi euro \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde tasarlan\u0131p uygulanabilir. IMF uzun d\u00f6nemli taahh\u00fctler i\u00e7in analitik yeterlili\u011fe sahip de\u011fildir. Yunanistan uzun ve zor bir yola \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r; euro b\u00f6lgesinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131 yerine i\u00e7inde yolculuk daha az travma, daha \u00e7ok ba\u015far\u0131 getirir.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yaz\u0131 b\u00f6yle bitiyor. Bence IMF uyar\u0131s\u0131 hayatidir. Damdan d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fck, biliyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Avrupa borsalar\u0131 haftaya iyi ba\u015flamad\u0131. Sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 \u0130MKB\u2019ye de yans\u0131d\u0131. Euro, dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda biraz de\u011fer kaybetti. Son bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda parite 1.34\u2019e inmi\u015fti. Sepet kur bir 2.08&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":919,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12117","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12117","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12117"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12117\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/919"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12117"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12117"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12117"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}