{"id":1210,"date":"2011-06-08T09:20:31","date_gmt":"2011-06-08T06:20:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=1210"},"modified":"2011-06-08T10:03:53","modified_gmt":"2011-06-08T07:03:53","slug":"boyle-gelmis-olsa-da-boyle-gitmeyecek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/boyle-gelmis-olsa-da-boyle-gitmeyecek\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00f6yle Gelmi\u015f Olsa da, B\u00f6yle Gitmeyecek!.."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7eli\u015fkilerin anormal boyutlara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7iyoruz. As\u0131l ilgin\u00e7 olan\u0131 bu tuhafl\u0131klar\u0131n hem k\u00fcresel, hem de ulusal d\u00fczeyde ge\u00e7erli olmas\u0131! Belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131kta ya\u015fanan kademeli t\u0131rman\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen i\u015fadamlar\u0131 ve siyasilerin umutlu olmas\u0131, 10 hatta 20 y\u0131l sonras\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rebildiklerini iddia etmesi, herkesin kendi ger\u00e7ekleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalanlar\u0131 g\u00f6rmemekte \u0131srar etmesi belki de olumsuzluklar\u0131n hem sebebi, hem de sonucu olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u0130\u00e7ine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fclen k\u0131s\u0131r d\u00f6ng\u00fcden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lam\u0131yor. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca genel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131nda \u00fclkemizde her \u015feyin d\u00fczelece\u011fini, Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile birlikte t\u00fcm sorunlar\u0131m\u0131zdan kurtulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnebilirsiniz. Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fince cari a\u00e7\u0131k da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek, enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik gerileyecek, herkesin kesesi dolacak!..<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-4215264516\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Belli ki etkili ve yetkili kesimler mahcup olmamak i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir mucize bekliyor. Belki de b\u00f6yle bir \u015fey olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 biliyor, ancak ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de olam\u0131yor&#8230; K\u00fcresel e\u011filimlerde mucizevi bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmaz ise hem enflasyon ve hem faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck d\u00fczeyde tutmak, hem de cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir mi? Torba Yasa \u00e7er\u00e7evesindeki bor\u00e7 yap\u0131land\u0131rmalar\u0131 tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olabilir mi? E\u011fer bunlar m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmaz da ekonomik istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcr ise bu ortamda g\u00fcndeme gelecek Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi nas\u0131l bir etki yapar? \u0130stikrars\u0131zl\u0131k azal\u0131r m\u0131, yoksa artar m\u0131?.. Veya farkl\u0131 bir a\u00e7\u0131dan konuya yakla\u015fal\u0131m. K\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin talep etti\u011fi Anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinin yap\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6nce istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n m\u0131 artmas\u0131 gerekiyor? E\u011fer durum b\u00f6yle de\u011fil ise bug\u00fcne kadar sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131 pahas\u0131na neden g\u00fcn\u00fcn kurtar\u0131lmas\u0131 ve rant yarat\u0131lmas\u0131 gibi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmayan bir rotada \u0131srar edildi?..<\/p>\n<p>Ekonomik cepheden orta vadeli bir bak\u0131\u015f T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin olduk\u00e7a ciddi say\u0131labilecek bir durgunlu\u011fa ko\u015ftu\u011funu ve istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. K\u00fcresel ko\u015fullar orta vadede enflasyon ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminde olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, rekabet ko\u015fullar\u0131 bozulup faaliyet gelirleri artt\u0131k\u00e7a kademeli bir \u015fekilde korumac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n y\u00fckselece\u011fini, sistemik riskte ya\u015fanacak art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Bu ortamda enflasyon ve cari a\u00e7\u0131ktaki olumsuzluklar\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na almak \u00e7ok ciddi bir i\u00e7 talep daralmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektiriyor. Di\u011fer taraftan unutulmamas\u0131 gereken ba\u015fka bir ger\u00e7ek var. T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de i\u00e7 talebin uyar\u0131lmas\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n zorlanmas\u0131 sayesinde sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fmas\u0131 pahas\u0131na g\u00fcn kurtar\u0131ld\u0131, istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k potansiyeli \u00f6telenerek b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcld\u00fc&#8230; \u00d6yle bir noktaya gelindi ki, i\u00e7 talep daralsa da olmuyor, daralmasa da!.. Saadet zincirinin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6nlenemiyor. Ne dersiniz Moody&#8217;s \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi kredi de\u011ferlendirme \u015firketlerinden gelen uyar\u0131lar artabilir, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye riskini azaltma eylemi h\u0131zlanarak devam edebilir mi?..<\/p>\n<p>E\u011fer i\u00e7 talep say\u0131l\u0131r \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daralt\u0131lacak ise kamu alacaklar\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 da pek bir anlam ta\u015f\u0131mayacak. Zira hem vergi gelirleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalacak, hem de nakit ak\u0131\u015flarda ya\u015fanan k\u0131r\u0131lma nedeniyle yap\u0131land\u0131r\u0131lan alacaklar\u0131n tahsilat\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde aksayacak; normal d\u00fczeylere \u00e7\u0131kabilecek nakit a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 son y\u0131llardaki klasikle\u015fmi\u015f y\u00f6ntemlerle gizlemek ve beklentileri y\u00f6nlendirmekte pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamayacak. 10 hatta 20 y\u0131l sonras\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc iddia edenler 10 g\u00fcn sonras\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6remediklerini itiraf etmek zorunda kalacak. Olumsuzla\u015fan ko\u015fullar a\u015f\u0131r\u0131ya ka\u00e7an oranda duygusalla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f insanlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 tepkiselli\u011fe itecek&#8230; Kaybedecek hi\u00e7bir \u015feyi kalmayacak vatanda\u015f say\u0131s\u0131ndaki patlama istikrars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 farkl\u0131 boyutlara ta\u015f\u0131yabilecek.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eimdilik daha fazla konu\u015fmayal\u0131m; belirsizlik ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n artmaya devam edece\u011fini, hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin eskisi gibi olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatmakla yetinelim&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Mehmet U\u011fur C\u0130VELEK<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7eli\u015fkilerin anormal boyutlara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, hi\u00e7bir \u015feyin g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sorunlar\u0131n a\u011f\u0131rla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7iyoruz. As\u0131l ilgin\u00e7 olan\u0131 bu tuhafl\u0131klar\u0131n hem k\u00fcresel, hem de ulusal&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1210","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1210"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1210\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1210"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1210"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1210"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}