{"id":12065,"date":"2012-02-27T10:16:12","date_gmt":"2012-02-27T08:16:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=12065"},"modified":"2012-02-27T10:16:22","modified_gmt":"2012-02-27T08:16:22","slug":"ecbnin-likidite-ihalesi-haftanin-olayi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ecbnin-likidite-ihalesi-haftanin-olayi\/","title":{"rendered":"ECB\u2019nin Likidite \u0130halesi Haftan\u0131n Olay\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bu haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddesi 29 \u015eubat\u2019ta Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) yapaca\u011f\u0131 ikinci 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) ihalesi. Miktara g\u00f6re piyasadaki y\u00f6n nas\u0131l olabilir? Yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay kadar \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan bir ankette bu ihaleden ortalama 325 milyar euroluk bir fonlama sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Ancak sonras\u0131nda tahminler 1 trilyon euroya kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-589641620\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Haftalard\u0131r beklenen an yakla\u015ft\u0131. Piyasalar bir s\u00fcredir 29 \u015eubat\u2019ta Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) yapaca\u011f\u0131 ikinci 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) ihalesini bekliyorlard\u0131. Likiditenin devam\u0131, fonlaman\u0131n uzun s\u00fcreli ve ucuz olmas\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131n bankalar\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131p kat\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131, bunun ECB\u2019nin son ihalesi olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrekli tart\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Ve karar haftas\u0131nday\u0131z art\u0131k&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Ancak \u00f6nce sadece bu hafta de\u011fil, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in de \u00f6nemli olabilecek G-20 maliye bakanlar\u0131n\u0131n Meksika\u2019daki toplant\u0131s\u0131na bir g\u00f6z atmakta fayda var. G-20 maliye bakanlar\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda; AB\u2019deki iki ayr\u0131 \u201ckurtarma\u201d fonunun; k\u0131sa vadeli EFSF (Avrupa Finansal \u0130stikrar Fonu) ile daha uzun vadeli olan ESM (Avrupa \u0130stikrar Mekanizmas\u0131); tek \u00e7at\u0131 alt\u0131nda toplanarak 750 milyar euroluk (yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar) daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f. Her ne kadar Almanya buna \u00e7ok da s\u0131cak bakm\u0131yor olsa da (Bu arada bug\u00fcn Almanya\u2019da, Yunanistan\u2019a yap\u0131lacak ikinci kurtarma paketinin parlamento oylamas\u0131 var. Ha keza bu hafta i\u00e7inde Hollanda ve Finlandiya\u2019da Yunanistan yard\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 oylayacak&#8230; (Reddedilme ihtimali d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ancak red oylar\u0131n\u0131n miktar\u0131 ilerisi i\u00e7in takip edilecek.) IMF\u2019nin talep etti\u011fi 500-600 milyar dolarl\u0131k ek imk\u00e2n, halihaz\u0131rdaki 358 milyar dolarl\u0131k IMF fonuyla birle\u015ftirilerek 2 trilyon dolarl\u0131k \u201cD\u00fcnya Kurtarma Fonu\u201d olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 g\u00fcndemdeymi\u015f.<\/p>\n<p>2008 krizinden bu yana 3 sene ge\u00e7ti ve G-20\u2019de halen daha \u201ckurtarma\u201d tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Daha \u00f6nceki \u2018kurtarmalar\u2019 i\u015fe yarasayd\u0131, halen daha yeni yeni fonlar icat etmek, varolanlar\u0131n imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletmek tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r m\u0131yd\u0131? Hen\u00fcz daha b\u00f6ylesi bir krizin tekrarlanmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in net, elle tutulur bir \u00f6nlem, yepyeni bir yap\u0131 \u00f6nerisi yok ortada. E\u011fer yepyeni olmasa da \u201cd\u00fczeltilmi\u015f\u201d bir modelle yola devam edilmeyecekse bu fonlar\u0131n yepyeni bir krizde i\u015fe yaray\u0131p yaramayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kim garanti edecek? Kald\u0131 ki halen daha hata yapm\u0131\u015f olanlar\u0131n bu hatalar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l \u201ckamuya y\u00fckleriz\u201d y\u00f6ntemleri \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ne hatalar\u0131n \u00f6nlenmesi, ne de hatalar\u0131 yapanlar\u0131n \u201ccezaland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131\u201d; hadi bundan ge\u00e7tim, cayd\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131; y\u00f6n\u00fcnde hi\u00e7bir ad\u0131mdan s\u00f6z edilmiyor.<\/p>\n<p>Nisan ay\u0131ndaki G-20 liderler zirvesinde bu konular netle\u015fecek. Oradan da benim umudum azald\u0131. K\u00fcresel finansal sistemini nas\u0131l \u201ckurtar\u0131r\u0131zdan\u201d, hasarlardan nas\u0131l \u201ckoruruz\u201d a\u015famas\u0131na ge\u00e7ilmedik\u00e7e G-20\u2019ler daha \u00e7ok havanda su d\u00f6vecekler. Siyasilerin, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n da i\u015fi zor&#8230; Bir yanda fark\u0131nda olduklar\u0131 \u201cger\u00e7ekler\u201d; di\u011fer yanda oy kayg\u0131s\u0131 ve k\u00fcresel finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u201ca\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczenlemelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7eker\u201d \u015feklindeki y\u0131llard\u0131r s\u00fcren \u201cba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 lobi\u201d faaliyetleri&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Yeniden haftan\u0131n \u201colay\u0131\u201d LTRO-II ihalesine d\u00f6nersek&#8230; Piyasan\u0131n kilitlenece\u011fi miktar ve kimlerin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Faiz nas\u0131lsa belli: Y\u00fczde 1. Kimlerin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihale sonras\u0131ndaki piyasa dedikodular\u0131ndan \u00f6\u011frenilecek. Bu ihalenin son olmas\u0131 ihtimaline kar\u015f\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n da ihaleyi \u201cson f\u0131rsat\u201d olarak g\u00f6rmesi durumunda sonu\u00e7lar ilgin\u00e7 olabilir. Piyasalar\u0131 as\u0131l ilgilendiren miktar asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z. Zira Ocak ay\u0131n\u0131n 9\u2019undan bu yana piyasalar\u0131 y\u00fckselten \u201clikidite meltemindeki\u201d son b\u00fcy\u00fck \u201cvoli\u201d bu ihale olacak.<\/p>\n<p>Miktara g\u00f6re piyasadaki y\u00f6n nas\u0131l olabilir? Yakla\u015f\u0131k bir ay kadar \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan bir ankette bu ihaleden ortalama 325 milyar euroluk bir fonlama sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Ancak sonras\u0131nda 1 trilyon euroya kadar tahminler y\u00fckseldi. G\u00f6r\u00fcnen o ki&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; 300-350 milyar euronun alt\u0131: Euro lehine bir durum s\u00f6z konusu. Arz\u0131 \u201cs\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131\u201d kalan euronun son g\u00fcnlerdeki y\u00fckseli\u015fini; biraz da h\u0131zlanarak; s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi s\u00f6z konusu. Mart ay\u0131nda 1.3725\u2019in \u00fczerinin test edilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artar. Ancak bu rakam\u0131n \u201cd\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u201d olarak alg\u0131lanma ihtimali y\u00fcksek ve bu durumda varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131ndaki ralli h\u0131z kesecek ve hatta k\u00e2r realizasyonlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u201ciyi\u201d bir mazeret olacakt\u0131r.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-1\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1562462475\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"3167340272\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>&#8211; 350-600 milyar euro aras\u0131: Euronun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 yava\u015flayarak da olsa s\u00fcrer, y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olur. 1.3550-1.3620 seviyeleri; hatta 1.3715 dahi; test edilebilir! Varl\u0131k piyasalar\u0131ndaki ralli havas\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r ancak arada birileri \u201cHepsi bu muydu?\u201d diyerek k\u00e2rlar\u0131n\u0131 cebe koyacaklard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; 600 milyar eurodan fazlas\u0131: 1 trilyon ve hatta daha \u00fcst\u00fc de dahil&#8230; Euronun arz\u0131n\u0131n bu denli artm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 euronun de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 durdurur, hatta geriye \u00e7evirir. Yeniden 1.30\u2019un alt\u0131na inilmesi, hatta 1.2650\u2019lerin ikinci kez test edilmesi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artar. Euroya ra\u011fmen varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015flerini bir s\u00fcre daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilirler. Ancak hisse senetleri cephesi de\u011filse de ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta i\u00e7inde 93.24 ile euro baz\u0131nda yeni bir tarihi rekor k\u0131ran Brent petrol\u00fc AB\u2019de yeni bir tart\u0131\u015fma ba\u015flatabilir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zetle, LTRO-II bu hafta ve hatta Mart ay\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. (2 Mart\u2019ta \u0130ran\u2019da se\u00e7imler var ancak sonu\u00e7lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftay\u0131 daha \u00e7ok ilgilendirecek.)<\/p>\n<p>Hafta boyunca Alman borsa endeksi DAX\u2019\u0131n 6.800\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda bir g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015f yapmas\u0131, LTRO-II\u2019nin sonucunun piyasalar\u0131 mutlu etmedi\u011fi anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-content-2\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-1045363575\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"1818807385\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Euro\/dolar paritesinde de 1.3620\u2019nin \u00fczerindeki g\u00fcnl\u00fck kapan\u0131\u015flar \u00f6nemli mesajlar verecek!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bu haftan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddesi 29 \u015eubat\u2019ta Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) yapaca\u011f\u0131 ikinci 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation) ihalesi. Miktara g\u00f6re piyasadaki&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":910,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12065","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12065","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/19"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12065"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12065\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12065"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12065"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12065"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}