{"id":11932,"date":"2012-02-23T09:03:10","date_gmt":"2012-02-23T07:03:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/?p=11932"},"modified":"2012-02-23T09:03:22","modified_gmt":"2012-02-23T07:03:22","slug":"ya-eurodan-cikarsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/i\/ya-eurodan-cikarsa\/","title":{"rendered":"Ya Eurodan \u00c7\u0131karsa&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n euroyu terk ederek drahmiye d\u00f6nmesinden ba\u015fka \u00e7aresi kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok say\u0131da uzman\u0131n dile getirdi\u011fi bir se\u00e7enek.<\/p><div class=\"bilge-yaziust\" style=\"margin-top: 10px;margin-bottom: 10px;\" id=\"bilge-3606006535\"><ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:block\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-7495567325667578\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"9580705384\"\r\n     data-ad-format=\"rectangle\"\r\n     data-full-width-responsive=\"true\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script><\/div>\n<p>Soru \u015fu: Yunanistan\u2019a ili\u015fkin son g\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fananlar uluslararas\u0131 mali piyasalarda risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirip T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelecek yabanc\u0131 fon miktar\u0131n\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini etkiler mi?<br \/>\nTroyka taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilen ekonomik program bas\u0131nda ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir \u015fekilde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ayr\u0131nt\u0131ya girmiyorum. Sadece olduk\u00e7a a\u011f\u0131r ko\u015fullar\u0131 olan bir anla\u015fma oldu\u011funu belirtmekle yetineyim. Anla\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz m\u00fcrekkebi kurumadan Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki yolun \u00e7\u0131kmaz oldu\u011funa dair say\u0131s\u0131z yorum \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 d\u0131\u015f bas\u0131nda. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n euroyu terk ederek drahmiye d\u00f6nmesinden ba\u015fka \u00e7aresi kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 art\u0131k \u00e7ok say\u0131da uzman\u0131n dile getirdi\u011fi bir se\u00e7enek. 2012 sonuna kadar bunun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini bekleyen uzman say\u0131s\u0131 hi\u00e7 de az de\u011fil. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, Der Spiegel\u2019in \u0130ngilizce internet say\u0131s\u0131nda 20 \u015eubat\u2019ta yer alan (biri Almanyal\u0131 di\u011feri ABD\u2019li iki tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f iktisat\u00e7\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan) iki s\u00f6yle\u015fiyi okuman\u0131z\u0131 tavsiye ederim.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130ki kritik soru\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\nT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Yunanistan\u2019a ili\u015fkin geli\u015fmeleri ikiye ay\u0131rarak de\u011ferlendirmek gerekiyor. \u0130ki sorum var. Bir: Eurodan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n giderek y\u00fckselmesi halinde ne olur? \u0130ki: Stat\u00fcko korundu\u011fu s\u00fcrece, yani eurodan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 herkesin g\u00f6z\u00fcne batar hale gelene de\u011fin ne olur? Farkl\u0131 bir ifadeyle bug\u00fcne kadar oldu\u011fu gibi, arada bir Yunanistan g\u00fcndeme \u00e7\u0131kar, sonra yerini Portekiz\u2019e ya da bir ba\u015fka \u00fclkeye b\u0131rak\u0131r ve sonra tekrar g\u00fcndeme gelirse ne olur?<br \/>\n\u0130kinci soruya \u201cYunanistan\u2019dan zaten uzun s\u00fcredir umut kesilmi\u015fti\u201d diyerek yan\u0131t vermek daha kolay. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla ek bir olumsuzluk s\u00f6z konusu olmaz. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131n\u0131n sonundan bu yana iki b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankas\u0131 \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlar att\u0131. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 faiz indirdi, y\u00fckl\u00fc miktarda parasal geni\u015flemeye gitti. Ayr\u0131ca, bu ay\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru yine y\u00fcksek miktarda \u00fc\u00e7 y\u0131l vadeli kredi a\u00e7acak bankalara. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ise gerekirse yeni bir parasal geni\u015flemeye gitmeye haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu ve politika faizini 2014\u2019e kadar de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini duyurdu. Bu ad\u0131mlar, k\u00f6kl\u00fc sorunlara hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olmasalar da sorunlu \u00fclkelere \u00f6nlem almak i\u00e7in gerekli zaman\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131lar.<br \/>\nDi\u011fer yandan da sorunlu bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemlerinin i\u00e7inde bulunduklar\u0131 derin likidite s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, sermaye yetmezli\u011fi sorununa d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ferek, ortadaki problemleri daha da i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz bir hale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmesini engellediler. Ortaya sa\u00e7\u0131lan para b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli y\u00fcksek olan ve geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerle benzer sorunlarla bo\u011fu\u015fmayan geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere ak\u0131yor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye de geliyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 Yunanistan d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda s\u00fcrpriz bir \u00fclke g\u00fcndeme \u00e7\u0131kmaz ve Avrupa\u2019daki bankalar\u0131n sermaye artt\u0131rma operasyonlar\u0131 (2011\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda korkuldu\u011fu gibi) bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltme yoluyla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmez ise bizim gibi \u00fclkelere fon ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcrer. 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmemizi bu durumda a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olan ihracat performans\u0131m\u0131z ile bankalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n kredi arz\u0131ndaki geli\u015fmeler belirler.<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00c7alkant\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcresi\u00a0<\/strong><br \/>\n\u0130lk soruyu yan\u0131tlamak ise zor. Eurodan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f karar\u0131n\u0131n, elbette ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse, finansal piyasalarda derin \u00e7alkant\u0131lar yarataca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k. Burada kestirilmesi zor olan, derin \u00e7alkant\u0131lar\u0131n ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011fi ve Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n sorunlu ba\u015fka \u00fclkelerinin de eurodan \u00e7\u0131kma s\u00fcrecine girmek zorunda kal\u0131p kalmayacaklar\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te risk alma i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n keskin bi\u00e7imde azalmas\u0131 beklenir. \u00c7alkant\u0131lar\u0131n s\u00fcresi ise bu azalman\u0131n ne kadar inat\u00e7\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecek. B\u00f6yle bir durumun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi halinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye d\u0131\u015f fon giri\u015finin son derece azalaca\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n da olumsuz etkilenece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k. Yunanistan\u2019\u0131n eurodan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin 2012 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini etkilemesi i\u00e7in bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine dair bekleyi\u015flerin y\u0131l\u0131n sonu gelmeden yo\u011funla\u015fmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Uzmanlar\u0131n giderek artan k\u0131sm\u0131 bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 dile getirseler de \u015fimdilik piyasalarda b\u00f6yle bir hava yok. Bakal\u0131m daha neler g\u00f6rece\u011fiz bu ahir \u00f6mr\u00fcm\u00fczde?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yunanistan&#8217;\u0131n euroyu terk ederek drahmiye d\u00f6nmesinden ba\u015fka \u00e7aresi kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok say\u0131da uzman\u0131n dile getirdi\u011fi bir se\u00e7enek. Soru \u015fu: Yunanistan\u2019a ili\u015fkin son g\u00fcnlerde ya\u015fananlar uluslararas\u0131 mali&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":894,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11932","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tumyazilar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11932","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11932"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11932\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/894"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11932"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11932"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.bilgeyatirimci.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11932"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}